交通分析是公路工程可行性研究的重要组成部分。公路工程可行性研究中的 交通分析是包含交通调查、小区划分、路段交通特性分析、交通需求预测及交通 评价等在内的一个综合性概念。交通分析是确定公路技术标准、建设序列，经济 评价的重要依据，也是编制运输网规划、确定公路投资决策的主要依据。本文从 公路建设项目的自身特点出发，分析影响交通量预测的主要因素，分析公铁交通 量转移，对路段交通特性进行研究，探讨了在区域社会经济发展预测的基础上应 用四阶段法进行公路建设项目可行性研究中的交通量预测方法。本文结合国家高 速公路网中湖南境常德至邵阳高速公路可行性研究的工程实例，对交通影响区的 划分、OD调查、综合路网、远景交通量预测等内容进行了分析研究。 关键词:交通工程交通分析综合路网路阻函数道路收费转移率法 Abstract Traffic analysis is an important part of Highway feasibility study. Traffic analysis is a comprehensive concept which include division of traffic-influenced area, traffic investigation, analysis of segmemnt traffic character, traffic demand forecast and traffic evalution. It is the foundation to determine highway standard, capacity and levels of service, time of construction, economic evaluation and draw up road net plan. This paper analyzes the characteristics of highway project, road resistance function, road charge, factors linking with traffic forecast, then probes into traffic forecast method in Highway feasibility research on the basis of area economic forecasting meanwhile some practical problems and corresponding measurements are discussed. At last, with an example of The CHANGDE to SHAOYANG Expressway，this paper give analysis example of devision traffic一influced area, forming of origin-destination table and forecast future volume etc. KeyWord:Traffic Engineering, Traffic analysis, integrated network, road charge, road resistance function, transfer rate method. 目录 第一章绪论….............................................................................................................1 1.1问题的提出及研究意义...................................，.。.…，二。…‘二，二、二。.............1 1.2公路工程可行性研究在我国的开展情况及存在问题.................................... 4 1.3公路工程可行性研究的特点及交通分析的重要性........................................ 6 1.4主要研究内容.................................................................................................... 7 第二章影响交通分析的主要因素..............................................................................10 2.1项目影响区与交通小区的划分......................................................................10 2.2交通基础欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司的调查......................................................................................12 2.3交通预测模型...............。.…，.…。…。........................................................13 2.4四阶段法理论体系，.........................................................................................16 2.5交通需求预测中的难点..................................................................................18 2.6转移交通量预测..............................................................................................22 2.7本章小结.......................................................................................................... 24 第三章公铁分流影响分析.......................................................................................... 25 3.1公铁分流问题的提出...................................................................................... 25 3.2公铁分流预测的步骤…...................................................................................26 3.3公路可行性研究中公铁分流预测................................................，.…，，二、..27 3.4本章小结.......................................................................................................... 36 第四章交通分配模型中的路阻函数分析.................................................................... 3 8 4.1公路交通特性及交通阻抗概述...................................................................... 3 8 4.2国内外对路阻函数的研究.............................................................................. 39 4.3车速一交通流量关系的探讨..........................................................................45 4.4收费对路阻函数的影响分析.......................................................................... 51 4.5混合交通条件下的公路路阻函数.................................................................. 59 4.6本章小结…....................................................................................................... 61 第五章湖南常德至邵阳高速公路交通分析研究........................................................ 63 5.1项目背景…....................................................................................................... 63 5.2 OD调查与分析............................................................................................... 63 5.3交通发生与吸引预测…，................................·..·.················。····················一75 5.4趋势交通量、诱增交通量分布预测，二，二，.............................................. 80 5.5交通分配预测...................‘......................................··.··.·····················一81 5.6主线及互通立交转向交通量预测结果与简要分析...................................... 82 5.7本章小结…....................................................................................................... 86 第六章结论.................................................................................................................. 87