交通需求预测是公路建设项目可行性研究中的核心组成部分。公路建设项目可 行性研究中的交通需求预测主要包括项目影响区及小区划分、社会经济现状及发展 预测，交通量调查及预测等。交通需求预测的水平和质量直接影响到项目决策方案 的科学性和合理性，科学合理地进行交通需求预测，能够准确地掌握未来交通量变 化的发展趋势，从而为公路建设项目计划，公路网规划以及公路可行性研究等提供 重要依据。 本文共分四个部分。第一部分详细介绍了公路可行性研究的主要内容以及交通 需求预测在公路可行性研究中的重要性。第二部分对交通需求预测的主要影响因素 进行了分析和阐述，主要介绍了项目影响区及交通小区划分的重要性，同时对交通 调查和交通需求预测模型进行了详细论述。第三部分对四阶段法交通需求预测进行 了详细的介绍和分析，为研究实际工程奠定了理论基础。本文第四部分结合广东省 惠常高速公路的工程实例，对项目影响区域及交通小区划分、交通调查、交通量预 测等内容进行了分析和应用研究。 关键词：交通需求预测 公路可行性研究 四阶段法 交通调查 交通分配II Abstract Traffic demand prediction is the core component of feasibility study of highway projects. The traffic demand prediction of highway feasibility study contains compartmentalizing of affected regions, traffic zones, social economic situation and development prediction, traffic survey and prediction etc. The level and quality of traffic demand prediction directly affect the science and rationality of project's decision-making, the development trend of traffic in the future can be grasped accurately by scientific and rational way for traffic demand prediction, which provides an important basis for highway projects planning, road network planning and highway feasibility study. This article is divided into four parts. The first part introduces the main contents of highway feasibility study and the importance of traffic demand prediction in highway feasibility study. The second part analysis and elaborates the main affecting factors of the traffic demand prediction, mainly introduces the importance of the division of influenced areas and traffic zones, while discussing the traffic survey and traffic demand prediction models in detail. In the fourth part of this paper, the influenced regions and traffic zones of projects, traffic survey and traffic volume prediction etc were researched appropriately, taking the example of HuiChang highway projects in Guangdong Province. Key words: traffic demand prediction feasibility study four-stage-method traffic survey traffic assignmentIII 目 录 摘要...............................................................................................................I Abstract...........................................................................................................II 1 绪论 1.1 研究背景.................................................................................................(1) 1.2 国内外研究现状.....................................................................................(2) 1.3 主要研究内容.........................................................................................(3) 2 公路可研阶段交通需求预测的主要影响因素 2.1 项目影响区域及交通小区划分 ............................................................(4) 2.2 交通调查.................................................................................................(6) 2.3 交通需求预测模型 ................................................................................(7) 3 公路可研阶段四阶段预测法研究 3.1 四阶段法预测理论 ................................................................................(9) 3.2 四阶段法预测步骤 ................................................................................(9) 4 惠常高速公路可研中的交通需求预测研究 4.1 项目概况...............................................................................................(16) 4.2 交通调查与分析...................................................................................(21) 4.3 交通量发展预测...................................................................................(27) 4.4 预测数据对比分析 ...............................................................................(28) 5 结论与展望 5.1 主要研究结论.......................................................................................(56) 5.2 工作展望...............................................................................................(56) 致 谢......................................................................................................(57)