The Global Risks
Report 2023
18th Edition
INSIGHT REPORT
In partnership with Marsh McLennan and Zurich Insurance GroupJanuary 2023 Global Risks Report 2023
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Global Risks Report 2023 2January 2023 Global Risks Report 2023
Contents
4 Preface
5 Overview of Methodology
6 Executive Summary
13 Chapter 1: Global Risks 2023: Today’s Crisis
131.1 Current crises
141.2 The path to 2025
15Cost-of-living crisis
17Economic downturn
19Economic warfare
21 Climate action hiatus
23Societal polarization
251.3 Looking ahead
26 Endnotes
29 Chapter 2: Global Risks 2033: Tomorrow’s Catastrophes
292.1 The world in 2033
312.2 Natural ecosystems: past the point of no return
352.3 Human health: perma-pandemics and chronic capacity challenges
382.4 Human security: new weapons, new conflicts
422.5 Digital rights: privacy in peril
462.6 Economic stability: global debt distress
50 Endnotes
57 Chapter 3: Resource Rivalries: Four Emerging Futures
573.1 Anticipating “polycrises”
573.2 Polycrisis: natural resources, climate and cooperation
603.3 Four futures for 2030
67 Endnotes
69 Chapter 4: Conclusion: is preparedness possible?
73 Endnotes
74 Appendix A – Technical Notes: Global Risks Perception Survey 2022-2023
79 Appendix B – Executive Opinion Survey: National Risk Perceptions
96 Acknowledgements
(c) 2023 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or
transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage
and retrieval system.
Global Risks Report 2023 3January 2023 Global Risks Report 2023
Preface
Saadia Zahidi
Managing Director
Last year’s Global Risks Report warned that a Yet much-needed attention and resources are being
divergent economic recovery from the COVID-19 diverted from newly emerging or rapidly accelerating
pandemic risked deepening divisions at a time risks to natural ecosystems, human health, security,
when collaboration was urgently required to address digital rights and economic stability that could
looming global challenges. Yet despite hard-learned become crises and catastrophes in the next decade.
lessons around the interdependence of global risks, A low-growth, low-investment and low-cooperation
few would have anticipated the extent of instability era further undermines resilience and the ability to
that would soon unfold, this time driven by a new war manage future shocks. In recognition of growing
in Europe. complexity and uncertainty, the report also explores
connections between these risks. The analysis
The health and economic aftereffects of the pandemic focuses on a potential "polycrisis", relating to
have quickly spiraled into compounding crises. shortages in natural resources such as food, water,
Carbon emissions have climbed, as the post- and metals and minerals, illustrating the associated
pandemic global economy fired back up. Food andsocioeconomic and environmental fall-out through a
energy have become weaponized by the war in set of potential futures.
Ukraine, sending inflation soaring to levels not seen in
decades, globalizing a cost-of-living crisis and fueling The report is underpinned by our annual Global
social unrest. The resulting shift in monetary policy Risks Perception Survey, which brings together
marks the end of an economic era defined by easyleading insights from over 1,200 experts across the
access to cheap debt and will have vast ramifications World Economic Forum’s diverse network. It draws
for governments, companies and individuals, widening on the collective intelligence of the world’s foremost
inequality within and between countries. risk experts, including the Global Risks Advisory
Board and the Chief Risk Officers Community, as
As the conflict between Russia and Ukrainewell as thematic experts from academia, business,
approaches one year, economies and societies government, the international community and
will not easily rebound from continued shocks. In civil society. The report has also benefited greatly
this year’s Global Risks Perception Survey, morefrom the expertise of the World Economic Forum’s
than four in five respondents anticipated consistent platforms, which work daily to drive tangible,
volatility over the next two years. The persistence system-positive change for the long term. We are
of these crises is already reshaping the world that deeply grateful to our long-standing partners in the
we live in, ushering in economic and technological report’s development: Marsh McLennan and Zurich
fragmentation. A continued push for national resilience Insurance Group.
in strategic sectors will come at a cost – one that only
a few economies can bear. Geopolitical dynamicsThe 2023 edition of the Global Risks Report
are also creating significant headwinds for global highlights the multiple areas where the world is
cooperation, which often acts as a guardrail to these at a critical inflection point. It is a call to action, to
global risks. collectively prepare for the next crisis the world may
face and, in doing so, shape a pathway to a more
The 18th edition of the Global Risks Report considers stable, resilient world.
this backdrop of simmering geopolitical tensions
and confluence of socioeconomic risks. It identifies
the most severe perceived risks to economies
and societies over the next two years. The world;s
collective focus is being channeled into the “survival”
of today’s crises: cost of living, social and political
polarization, food and energy supplies, tepid growth,
and geopolitical confrontation, among others.
Global Risks Report 2023 4January 2023 Global Risks Report 2023
Overview of
methodology
The Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS) has Refer to Appendix A: Technical Notes: Global
underpinned the Global Risks Report for nearly two Risks Perception Survey 2022-2023 for more
decades and is the World Economic Forum’s premier detail, including relevant definitions for each of the 32
source of original global risks data. This year’s global risks.
GRPS has brought together leading insights on the
evolving global risks landscape from over 1,200To complement GRPS data on global risks, the
experts across academia, business, government, the report also draws on the World Economic Forum’s
international community and civil society. Responses Executive Opinion Survey (EOS) to identify risks
for the GRPS 2022-2023 were collected from 7 that pose the most severe threat to each country
September to 5 October 2022. over the next two years, as identified by over
12,000 business leaders in 121 economies. When