EUROPEAN
COMMISSION
Brussels, 4.1.2023
SWD(2023) 4 final
COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT
Drivers of food security
EN EN
Table of Contents
1. Introduction ............... 3
2. Conceptual framework for the analysis of drivers of food security ....... 4
3. Overview of the main elements of the drivers identified ......... 7
3.1. Biophysical and environmental drivers ............ 7
3.2. Research, innovation and technology ............. 11
3.3. Economic and market drivers ........... 12
3.4. Food supply chain performance .............. 17
3.5. Political and institutional drivers ............. 17
3.6. Socio-cultural drivers ................ 18
3.7. Demographic drivers ................. 19
4. Interlinkages between drivers of food security in the EU ...... 20
5. Short-term and long-term trends ................ 23
6. Focus on key drivers in low-income countries ......... 26
7. Conclusions .................... 29
8. Analysis of the individual drivers .............. 32
8.1. Climate change ............ 32
8.2. Environmental pollution ............ 36
8.3. Soil health ............. 38
8.4. Pests and diseases ............... 42
8.5. Biodiversity ................. 47
8.6. Research, innovation and technology ............. 51
8.7. Intensity of production .............. 55
8.8. Trade .............. 57
8.9. Speculation in agricultural commodity markets ........... 61
8.10. Energy prices ............... 63
8.11. Fertilisers .............. 65
8.12. Pesticide use ................ 67
8.13. Availability of workers .............. 72
8.14. Agricultural and consumer food prices .......... 75
8.15. Farm income ................ 77
1
8.16. Access to finance ................ 78
8.17. Household income .............. 80
8.18. Competing land and crop uses.......... 82
8.19. Supply chain performance ................ 86
8.20. Food loss and waste ............ 88
8.21. Governance and legislative framework .......... 91
8.22. Conflict ................ 93
8.23. Generational renewal ................. 96
8.24. Food choices ................ 98
8.25. Demographic trends ................ 101
Annex I: Synopsis report - Stakeholder consultations .......... 104
References ..................... 109
2
1. Introduction
Today food security is at the forefront of the political agenda, both at the EU and global levels.
Ensuring the availability and access to food for consumers at reasonable prices are objectives
set out in Article 39 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU). However,
the achievement of these objectives cannot be taken for granted.
Food security sits at the nexus of society, agricultural production, climate, biodiversity, energy,
health, technology, peace and security. Without farmers and fishers, there is no food on our
table. As such, ensuring a fair standard of living for these communities is of paramount
importance for food production. With high pressure on the global food system, and as food
production is predominantly based on natural processes and yields are inherently uncertain,
vulnerabilities become more relevant in times like the ones we are currently living in.
Over the years, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has played an important role in making
EU agriculture one of the world;s leading food producers, which in turn guarantees the food
security for 450 million European citizens and contributes to global food security. European
farmers are responding to citizens; demands regarding food supply, safety, quality, and
sustainability.European farmers are responding to citizens; demands regarding food security,
safety, quality, and sustainability.In fisheries and aquaculture, the Common Fisheries Policy
(CFP) aims to ensure that fishing and aquaculture activities are sustainable and contribute to
provide Europeans with nutritional food.
At the heart of the European Green Deal, including the Farm to Fork, the Biodiversity and other
strategies, the EU set out a long-term strategic vision on how to change the way we produce,
distribute, and consume food. This vision aims at fair, healthy and environmentally-friendly
food systems, while further strengthening their overall resilience.
In recent years, the effects of climate change and environmental degradation have put food
systems, including agricultural, fisheries and aquaculture production, under increasing pressure
all over the world. Food systems belong among the major drivers of climate change and
biodiversity loss, and the same time, food production is among the most affected by them. In
addition, food systems can provide a wealth of solutions to these challeneges.
Against the backdrop of the global economic disruptions stemming from the COVID-19
pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, trade flows have been interrupted, and this has
negative implications for the supply of key agricultural commodities and inputs. This has
further destabilised global food systems and intensified food insecurity risks and vulnerabilities
across the world.
This staff working document aims at analysing the main drivers affecting food security from
both the supply and demand sides (1). Relying on an evidence-based approach, this document
provides a factual assessment of the key drivers and their interlinkages, to inform the ongoing
debate in today’s context. It looks at short and longer term horizons and linkages between the
drivers. Stakeholder views, collected through specific consultations, have been taken into
account in the analysis.
(1) This document does not replace any impact assessment associated to any specific legislative proposal.
3
The European Commission’s Communication of 23 March 2022 on ‘Safeguarding food
security and reinforcing the resilience of food systems’ put forward a number of short- and
medium-term measures to safeguard global food security, while supporting EU farmers, fishers,
and consumers most affected by Russia;s invasion of Ukraine. Among other things, measures
include support for a food security strategy for Ukraine, and for regions and population groups
most affected by food insecurity; a support package of EUR 500 million, encompassing the
mobilisation of the crisis reserve; an amended Temporary Crisis Framework for State aid; an
exceptional temporary derogation to allow the production of crops for food and feed purposes
on fallow land; the possibility for Member States to reduce VAT rates and encourage economic
operators to contain retail prices.
The EU, together with its Member States and the European Development Finance Institutions,
is responding to short-, medium-, and longer-term food security challenges through a Team
Europe approach along four strands of action: (i) a solidarity strand to step up emergency aid
and macro-economic support; (ii) a sustainable production strand to strengthen local food
production systems and resilience; (iii) a trade strand to keep markets open and get grains out
of Ukraine, especially via Solidarity Lanes and support to the UN and Turkey-led Black Sea
Grain Initiative; and (iv) a multilateral strand to work closely with international partners,
notably the UN. The Solidarity Lanes intitiative together with the Black Sea Gran initiative has
enabled the export of above 30 Mt of cereals, oilseeds and related products from Ukraine
between May and November 2022.
The EU has launched many initiatives to safeguard food security, strengthen the resilience of
food systems, and to guarantee the availability of supplies (2). This brings tangible progress in
achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goal ‘Zero hunger’ (SDG2), which focuses on
ending hunger and malnutrition, increasing sustainable agricultural produc