I 摘要 随着能源与环境问题之间的矛盾逐步突出，世界各国正在把更多解决方法寄托 于可再生能源发展，在2019版《全球能源展望》报告中，国际能源署（IEA）预计 到2040年全球将新增接近8500GW的电力装机，2019年-2040年，全球可再生能源 的累计投资金额将达10万亿美元，其中风力发电预计在2030年投资将达到1800 亿美元，预计在2040年将达到2230亿美元。这意味着我国风力发电装机投资量在 未来20年间至少增长11700亿元人民币左右，项目投资人约需9300亿元左右的债 务融资需求量，金额巨大的投资资金需求将会持续成为商业银行长期项目贷款的重 点营销方向。但是项目贷款具有隐蔽性、滞后性、长期性和严重性等特点，促使商 业银行在项目贷款开展过程中对风险的管理更加的严格和谨慎。因此，如何更好的 对风电投资项目贷款风险进行有效的管理和防范，也是商业银行项目贷款风险管理 工作的研究重点和重要工作。 本文通过六个章节具体分析工商银行J支行风电项目贷款的风险分析，首先， 本文通过对国内外的风险研究分析以及控制方法的梳理总结，对比得出项目贷款的 风险点，进一步延伸至对于风电项目贷款的风险点分析；接着，通过对工商银行J 支行现有风电项目的全流程跟踪分析，可以看出在对于项目的前期评级及贷款发放 前的评估分析工商银行J支行的风电项目贷款都处于一个较高的安全水平，但随着 项目贷款的按建设进度发放、项目的逐步建设及贷后的管理，通过按月进行的十二 级分类，不难看出这些风电项目贷款逐渐出现分类结果下调，风险逐渐显现和暴露， 故作者通过对现有的评级指标进行分析识别，并将评级指标总结归纳为调查类、财 务分析类、增信措施类以及制度要求类四个方面，进而从以上四方面提出风险控制 方案的优化措施；最后，作者描述了对风电项目贷款风险控制进行优化前后的方案 情况及对比情况，并针对提出的风险优化措施也相应的从调查类、财务分析类 、增 信措施类以及制度要求类四个方面提出了保障措施。从而促进工商银行J支行风电 项目贷款的良性运作，继而保证当地金融环境的健康稳定。 本文指出了我国商业银行在项目贷款风险管理方面存在的差距和不足，同时也 在风电项目贷款这一方面对现阶段的我国商业银行项目贷款风险管理提出了一些改 进的建议，展望了未来在项目贷款风险管理工作发展过程中可能会出现的一些新变 化，对商业银行项目贷款的风险管理工作具有一定的参考意义。 关键字：工商银行，风力发电，项目贷款，风险控制 ABSTRACT III ABSTRACT With the contradiction between energy and environmental issues becoming increasingly prominent, countries around the world are placing more solutions on the development of renewable energy. In the 2019 edition of the global energy outlook report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that by 2040, there will be nearly 8500gw of new electric power installations in the world. From 2019 to 2040, the cumulative investment amount of renewable energy in the world will reach 10 trillion US dollars, of which Wind power investment is expected to reach US $180 billion in 2030 and US $223 billion in 2040. This means that the installed investment of wind power generation in China will increase by at least RMB 1170 billion in the next 20 years, and the project investors will need about RMB 930 billion in debt financing demand. The huge investment capital demand will continue to be the key marketing direction of long-term project loans of commercial banks. But the project loan has the characteristics of concealment, lag, long-term and severity, which makes the commercial banks more strict and cautious in the risk management in the process of project loan development. Therefore, how to better manage and prevent the loan risk of wind power investment project is also the research focus and important work of the project loan risk management of commercial banks. This paper analyzes the risk analysis of the wind power project loan of ICBC J branch through six chapters. First of all, this paper summarizes the risk research analysis and control methods at home and abroad, compares the risk points of the project loan, and further extends to the risk point analysis of the wind power project loan; then, through the full flow of the existing wind power project of ICBC J branch According to the project tracking analysis, we can see that the loan of wind power project of J branch of industrial and Commercial Bank of China is at a high level of safety in the early stage rating of the project and the evaluation analysis before the loan is issued. However, with the project loan issued according to the construction progress, the gradual construction of the project and the management after the loan, it is not difficult to see that the loan of these wind power projects is gradually emerging through the twelve level classification by month The result of classification is reduced, and the risk gradually appears and exposes, so the author analyzes and identifies the existing rating indicators, and summarizes the rating 西安电子科技大学硕士学位论文 IV indicators into four aspects: investigation, financial analysis, credit enhancement measures and system requirements, and then puts forward the optimization measures of risk control scheme from the above four aspects; finally, the author describes the risk control of wind power project loan According to the scheme and comparison before and after optimization, and in view of the proposed risk optimization measures, the corresponding security measures are proposed from four aspects: investigation, financial analysis, credit enhancement measures and system requirements. So as to promote the sound operation of the wind power project loan of ICBC branch J, and then ensure the health and stability of the local financial environment. This paper points out the gap and deficiency in the project loan risk management of China's commercial banks, at the same time puts forward some suggestions for improving the project loan risk management of China's commercial banks at the present stage in the aspect of wind power project loan, and looks forward to some new changes that may appear in the development of project loan risk management in the future The risk management work of the fund has certain reference significance. Key words: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, wind power generation, project loan, risk controlternational 插图索引 V 插图索引 图1. 1 研究框架图 .................. 9 图3. 1 中国工商银行境内外分布图 ................... 17 图3. 2 陕西省陆上风力发电发电上网标杆电价表 .......................... 38 表格索引 VII 表格索引 表3. 1 中国工商银行近三年及即期存贷余额表 .............................. 18 表3. 2 风力发电项目情况简介 ........................... 19 表3. 3 2019年12月31日中国工商银行J支行存量贷款情况 ...... 20 表3. 4 风力发电项目贷款情况 ........................... 21 表3. 5 股东实力及股东支持度识别表 ............... 22 表3. 6 财务指标识别表 ........ 23 表3. 7 企业经营风险识别表 23 表3. 8 项目风险识别表 ........ 24 表3. 9 法人客户评级主标尺及与外部评级对应关系 ...................... 24 表3. 10 股东支持意愿评估得分表 ..................... 26 表3. 11 股东欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司背景和地位评估得分表 ......... 26 表3. 12 股东财务能力评估得分表 ..................... 27 表3. 13 企业经营风险评估得分表 ..................... 27 表3. 14 项目风险评估得分表 ........................... 27 表3. 15 企业管理评估得分表 ............................. 28 表3. 16 企业竞争力评估得分表 ......................... 28 表3. 17 企业经营环境评估得分表 ..................... 29 表3. 18 企业再融资能力评估得分表 ................. 29 表3. 19 企业还款意愿评估得分表 ..................... 29 表3. 20 完工风险评估得分表 ............................. 30 表3. 21 市场风险评估得分表 ............................. 30 表3. 22 技术风险评估得分表 ............................. 31 表3. 23 J支行现有风力发电项目2019年度评级情况 .................... 31 表3. 24 中国工商银行五级分类及相关定义 ..... 32 表3. 25 J支行现有风力发电项目2018年-2019年期间五级分类结果 ......................... 33 表4. 1 2018年风电并网运行统计数据 ............... 44 表4. 2 陕西省电力负荷表 .... 45 表4. 3 陕西电网电量平衡表 46 目录 IX 目录 摘要 ............ I ABSTRACT ........................... III 插图索引 .. V 表格索引 VII 目录 ......... IX 第一章 绪论 ............................ 1 1.1 研究背景 ........................ 1 1.2 研究目的及意义 ............ 3 1.3 国内外研究现状 ............ 4 1.3.1 国外研究现状 ........ 4 1.3.2 国内研究现状 ....