近年来，随着我国企业中全面预算管理的推行，预算管理在企业管理控制中发挥 的积极作用也逐渐突显，有效的预算管理不仅可以促进企业人力及资源的优化整合，而 且有利于企业的经营管理。因此，预算制定的真实性与实施的规范性十分重要。但在实 际的预算管理工作中，有部分管理者为了更容易完成预算目标，在预算制定时有意低估 产能收入或高估成本等，造成预算松弛的问题。预算松弛的产生会导致预算管理的财务 预测和经营筹划职能失灵。究其成因，外部的环境不确定性与内部管理者个人的风险倾 向是否会对预算松弛产生一定的影响，这也是学术界一直关注的难点问题。因此本文从 这两个角度对预算松弛的成因进行研究，从而为预算松弛的解决提供相应建议。 本文基于委托代理理论结合行为主义等理论，选取2013—2018年新疆48家上市企 业为研究对象，以及公开披露的企业预算等数据，通过采用固定效应模型探讨环境不确 定性、管理者风险偏好与预算松弛的关系，并根据产权性质对样本进行了分组回归，得 出以下结论：管理者风险偏好与预算松弛呈显著负相关；环境不确定性对预算松弛具有 显著正向影响；在环境不确定性加剧时，管理者风险偏好与预算松弛则呈现正相关关系。 这也表明，企业的外部环境不确定性增加时，风险偏好对预算松弛的抑制作用减弱。从 分组回归结果来看，国有企业管理者风险偏好对预算松弛有显著的的制约作用，而非国 有企业则不显著；无论国有还是非国有企业，环境不确定性都对预算松弛有正向显著影 响；环境不确定性与风险偏好交互项在国有组中与预算松弛显著正相关，而非国有组则 不显著，可以看出新疆上市公司的国有企业中风险偏好这一因素对预算松弛的影响更为 突出。 基于实证分析的结果，本文指出了在管理者风险偏好视角下改善预算松弛问题的建 议：加强企业内部信息沟通，克服甚至避免管理者“逆向选择”行为的产生；建立弹性 预算模式，根据变化合理调整预算；对于不同类型的企业，要对其预算管理方案进行区 分，尤其是对国有企业，要加强对其管理者的监督，减少预算松弛现象的产生。此外， 对非国有的企业在环境波动大时要给予政策扶持，避免非国有企业为降低风险而人为制 造预算松弛。 关键词：新疆上市公司；环境不确定性；管理者风险偏好；预算松弛 环境不确定性、管理者风险偏好与预算松弛关系研究 III Abstract Inrecentyears,withtheimplementationofthecomprehensivebudgetmanagementsysteminChinese enterprises,thepositiveroleofbudgetmanagementincorporateinternalgovernancehasgraduallybecome moreprominent.Effectivebudgetmanagementcannotonlypromotetheoptimizationandintegrationof humanresourcesandresources,butalsobenefittheManagement.Therefore,theauthenticityarevery important.However,inactualbudgetmanagement,somemanagersintendtounderestimateproduction capacityincomeoroverestimatecostsduringbudgetformulationinordertomakeiteasiertocomplete budgetgoals,resultingintheproblemofbudgetslack.Theoccurrenceofbudgetaryslackwillleadtothe failureofthefinancialforecastingandbusinessplanningfunctionsofbudgetmanagement.Investigating thecauses,whethertheexternalenvironmentaluncertaintyandtheinternalrisktendencyofinternal managerswillhaveacertainimpactonbudgetslack,thisisalsotheresearchdirectionthattheacademic communityhasbeenpayingattentionto.Therefore,thisarticlestudiesthecausesofbudgetslackfrom thesetwoperspectives,andprovidescorrespondingsuggestionsforthesolutionofbudgetslack. Basedonthetraditionalagencytheorycombinedwithbehaviorismandothertheories,thispaper corporatebudgetandotherdata,andexploresenvironmentaluncertainty,managerialriskpreferenceand Therelationshipbetweenbudgetslackandgroupedregressionofthesamplesaccordingtothenatureof propertyrights,thefollowingconclusionsaredrawn:managers'riskappetiteissignificantlynegatively correlatedwithbudgetslack;environmentaluncertaintyhasasignificantpositiveeffectonbudgetslack; when environmental uncertainty intensifies,managers'riskappetiteandbudgetslackhavea positivecorrelation.Thisalsomeansthatwhentheuncertaintyoftheexternalenvironmentofthecompany increases,theinhibitoryeffectofriskappetiteonbudgetaryslackisweakened.Fromthegroupregression results,theriskappetiteofthemanagerseffectonbudgetslack,whilethatofnon-state-ownedenterprises isnotenvironmentaluncertaintyispositivelysignificantforbudgetslackImpact;Theinteractionof environmentaluncertaintyandriskpreferenceissignificantlypositivelyrelatedtobudgetslackinthe state-ownedgroup,butnotsignificantinthenon-state-ownedgroup.Itcanbeseenthattheriskpreference ofstate-ownedenterprisesinXinjiang-listedcompaniesaffectsbudgetslackMoreimportant. Fromtheperspectiveofmanagers'riskappetiteareputforward:strengthentheinternalinformation exchangeofenterprisestoreduceorevenavoidtheoccurrenceofmanagers'"adverseselection"behavior; establishaflexiblebudgetmodelandadjustthebudgetreasonablyaccordingtochanges;budgetbehavior, 环境不确定性、管理者风险偏好与预算松弛关系研究 IV andstrictlycontroltheoccurrenceofbudgetaryslack.Inaddition,thegovernmentshouldalsoprovide policysupporttonon-state-ownedenterprises,encouragenon-state-ownedenterprises. Keywords:Xinjianglistedcompanies;Budgetslack;Managerialriskappetite;Environmental uncertainty 环境不确定性、管理者风险偏好与预算松弛关系研究 V 目录 摘要........................................................................................................................................II Abstract.....................................................................................................................................III 1绪论.........................................................................................................................................1 1.1研究背景与意义............................................................................................................1 1.1.1研究背景..............................................................................................................1 1.1.2研究意义..............................................................................................................2 1.2研究内容与方法............................................................................................................3 1.2.1研究内容..............................................................................................................3 1.2.2研究方法..............................................................................................................4 1.3研究思路与技术路线....................................................................................................4 1.4创新点............................................................................................................................5 2文献综述.................................................................................................................................6 2.1预算松弛........................................................................................................................6 2.1.1预算松弛的定义相关研究..................................................................................6 2.1.2预算松弛影响因素的相关研究..........................................................................7 2.2管理者风险偏好............................................................................................................9 2.3环境不确定性..............................................................................................................10 2.4风险偏好、环境不确定性与预算松弛......................................................................11 2.4.1管理者风险偏好与预算松弛的相关研究........................................................11 2.4.2环境不确定性与预算松弛的相关研究............................................................12 2.4.3管理者风险偏好、环境不确定性与预算松弛三者关系的研究....................13 2.5文献述评......................................................................................................................13 3概念界定与理论基础...........................................................................................................16 3.1相关概念界定..............................................................................................................16 3.1.1预算松弛的概念界定........................................................................................16 3.1.2风险偏好的概念界定........................................................................................16 3.1.3环境不