专 业:工商管理

学员姓名:黄哲

导师姓名:王正斌
导师签名:

摘要 厂夕—

学员签名

面对日益复杂的商业环境中,战略规划对于企业的重要性变得越来越强,战略规划

是能够决定企业经营活动成败的关键性因素。良好的战略规划是企业实现自己战略目标

的前提条件,并且是企业长久高效发展的重要基础。在过去的几十年中,全世界的管理

专家、咨询专家和商业机构都在致力于研究和总结如何制定公司战略规划,战略规划的

重要性已得到了绝大多数企业的认同。

本文以TH公司为研究对象,剖析该公司战略规则中存在的问题及问题出现的原因。

运用财务模拟的方法通过财务回顾,梳理战略回顾,总结经验、吸取教训;通过财务预

测,进行战略分析研究,结合过去的经营经验,结合未来的欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司机会、企业愿景,对未

来新的战略发展期的业绩指标进行量化预测;通过财务模拟,进行战略兵棋推演,结合

未来发展扩张的目标对公司经营规模、投资张力、融资规模、现金流平衡等情况进行系

统的模拟和推演,从中找出问题,并为制定解决方案奠定基础;通过财务分析,进行战

略规划的再修订,从健康、稳健的角度出发,对公司的战略规划进行重新梳理和调整。

我国企业目前普遍重视战略规划但是战略规划方法缺失导致战略规划内容无法落

地,TH公司同样存在上述问题。本文通过在TH公司引入基于财务模拟的战略规划方

法,明确了 TH公司在未来发展过程中,首先要确保经营性现金流流入良好、流出适当;

其次,要保证投资性现金流的规模可控;最后,在债务性融资不能满足公司投资性现金

流出的前提下,考虑进行股权性融资的结论。本文引入了一套适合TH公司的战略规划

方法,为TH公司未来发展奠定了集成,同时对国内同行在制定和研究战略规划方面有

一定的借鉴意义。

【关键词】战略规划财务模拟财务推演

【研究类型】应用研究

Title: Based On the financial modeling of TH Company

strategic planning

Specialty: Business Administration

Name: Huang Zhe
Signature:

T\itor: Wang Zhengbin
Signature:

Abstract

Facing the increasingly complex business environment, strategic planning

for enterprises become more and more important, strategic planning is a key

factor to decide the success or failure of business activity. Good strategic

planning is a prerequisite for the enterprise to realize the strategic target, and is

an important basis for the efficient development of enterprises. In the past few

decades, the world of management experts, consultants and business magazines

are devoted to research and summarize how to formulate the company strategy,

strategic importance has been unprecedented identity.

Based on the strategic planning of TH company to develop as the object of

study, causes of problems and the analysis of the strategy of the rules. By using

the method of financial simulation through the financial review, summary of the

strategy review, summing up the experience, lessons; through the financial

projections, the strategic analysis research, combined with the past operating

experience, combined with the future opportunities for the industry, enterprise

vision, to make quantitative predictions on the performance indexes of the new

strategic development period in the future; the financial simulation, a strategic

weapon with the expansion of deduction, future development goals were

simulated and deduction system of corporate business scale, investment,

financing, cash flow tension balance situation, find out the problems from, not

making a solution to lay foundation; through financial analysis, and then revised

strategic planning, starting from the angle of healthy, robust, review and

adjustment of the strategic plan of the company.

At present Chinese enterprises pay more attention to the strategic planning