企业研发投入对股价崩盘风险的影响——基于A股上市公司的经验证据
摘
要
2015年的股灾对中国股票市场造成了巨大破坏，投资者对我国股票市场的信心急剧
下降，股价暴涨暴跌现象已引起政府部门和相关学者的关注。随着我国持续深化以创新
为导向的发展战略，创新型企业逐渐被股市青睐。而企业创新需要研发新产品、新技术
作为支撑，关注和研究企业研发投入对企业股价的大起大落是否会产生影响？在何种条
件下会产生这种影响？同时探索制定研发投入决策的管理者特征和企业生命周期在前
述影响中发挥怎样的作用具有一定现实和理论意义。
本文通过梳理国内外文献发现，一些学者已经对企业研发投入与股价崩盘风险之间
的相互关系进行了论证，但是得到的结论还没有完全统一，且少有学者研究高管过度自
信和企业生命周期对这两者关系的影响。本文选择 2010至 2019年 A股上市公司作为研
究对象，首先，通过实证分析，验证了公司研发投入的股价崩盘效应，并进一步探讨了
公司研发过度和非研发过度对股价崩盘的影响；其次，本文基于高管过度自信和企业生
命周期视角，研究了这两者在研发投入的股价崩盘效应中是否存在调节作用以及如何发
挥调节作用，同时分析了不同生命周期下高管过度自信的调节效应是否存在差异；然后，
从信息不对称的角度研究研发投入对股价崩盘风险产生影响的传导路径；最后对回归的
实证结果进行了稳健性检验。
本文通过实证分析得出以下结论：（1）随着企业研发投入的增加，股价崩盘风险
也增加，但仅显著存在于过度研发的企业中；（ 2）研发投入对股价崩盘的正向影响在
高管过度自信的企业中更加显著；（3）相较于成熟期企业，研发投入对股价崩盘风险
的影响显著地存在于成长期和衰退期企业；（ 4）高管过度自信的正向调节效应在成长
期和衰退期企业中显著存在，在成熟期企业中不显著；（ 5）通过中介效应分析表明研
发投入影响股价崩盘的传导路径为“研发投入—信息不对称—股价崩盘”，信息不对称
发挥了部分中介因子的作用。
根据以上结论，本文从企业和政府角度提出了相关建议。从企业角度来看：（ 1）
企业应该制定合理的研发投入决策，不能进行盲目研发；（ 2）企业对管理者要进行严
格筛选和培训；（3）企业制定研发投入决策要综合考虑自身的生命周期。从政府角度
来看：（1）应该加强监管，完善公司信息披露制度；（2）保证会计制度的完善及合理
性，尽量细化研发投入中会引起歧义的内容；（ 3）引导投资者进行理性投资，注重投
资者教育。本论文的研究将有助于我们更好地理解我国企业的研发投入会带来怎样的经
济影响，从而有效地遏制我国股票市场的崩盘风险，促进我国资本市场的健康发展。
关键词：研发投入；股价崩盘风险；信息不对称；企业生命周期；高管过度自信
I

Abstract
Abstract
The 2015 stock market crash caused enormous damage to China's stock market,
investors' confidence in the Chinese stock market fell sharply. Share prices plunged
phenomenon has aroused the concern of the government departments and relevant scholars.
With the continuous advancement of our country's innovation-driven development strategy,
innovative enterprises are gradually valued by the stock market. Corporate innovation needs
to develop new products and new technologies as support, pay attention to and research on
whether the R&D is an impact on the ups and downs of the company's stock price? Under
what conditions does this effect occur? At the same time, it has important practical and
theoretical significance to explore the characteristics of managers who make R&D investment
decisions and the role of enterprise life cycle in the aforementioned impacts.
By combing domestic and foreign literature, it is found that some scholars have studied
the correlation between corporate R&D investment and stock price crash risk, but have not
reached a consistent conclusion, and few scholars have considered if executives'
overconfidence and corporate life cycle make an impact on the relationship between the two.
This thesis selects A-share non-financial listed companies from 2010 to 2019 as the research
object. Firstly, it verifies the relationship between R&D investment and stock price crash risk,
and further studies the stock price crash effect of over-R&D and non-over-R&D Secondly,
based on the perspective of executive overconfidence and enterprise life cycle, this thesis
studies whether executive overconfidence and enterprise life cycle have a moderating effect
on the stock price crash effect of R&D investment and how to play a moderating role.
Whether there is a difference in the moderating effect of executives' overconfidence in the life
cycle; Then, from the perspective of information asymmetry, research the transmission path of
the impact of R&D investment on stock price crash risk; Finally, the robustness test of the
empirical results is carried out by using the instrumental variable method, the elimination
factor method and the replacement core variable method.
Here are the results from this thesis by empirical analysis: (1) The higher the R&D
investment of the enterprise, the higher the possibility of the stock price crash risk, and it is
significantly present in companies with excessive R&D (2) In companies with overconfident
executives, the positive relationship between R&D investment and stock price crash risk is
more significant; (3) Compared with enterprises in the mature period, the R&D investment of
enterprises in the growth period and recession period has a more significant impact on the risk
of stock price crash; (4) The promotion effect of executives' overconfidence on the
relationship between R&D investment and stock price crash risk exists significantly in
companies in growth and decline stages, but not in mature companies; (5) Through the
mediation effect analysis, it shows that the transmission path of R&D investment affecting
stock price crash is "R&D investment-information asymmetry-stock price crash risk", and
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企业研发投入对股价崩盘风险的影响——基于A股上市公司的经验证据
information asymmetry has played a part of the mediating factor.
Based on the above conclusions, this thesis proposes the following suggestions. From the
perspective of enterprises: (1) Enterprises should make reasonable R&D investment decisions
and cannot blindly conduct R&D activities; (2) Enterprises should conduct strict screening
and training for managers; (3) Enterprises should designate R&D investment decisions to
consider their own development stage. From the perspective of the government: (1)
Supervision should be strengthened to standardize the company's information disclosure
system; (2) The accounting system should be further improved, and the content of R&D
investment that may cause ambiguity should be refined as much as possible; (3) Strengthen
investor education and cultivate the concept of rational investment among investors. The
research of this thesis will help us to better understand the economic impact brought by the
R&D investment of Chinese enterprises, so as to effectively curb the crash risk of my
country's stock market and promote the healthy development of my country's capital market.
Key Words: R&D investment; Stock crash risk; Information asymmetry; Enterprise life
cycle; Overconfidence of executives
III
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