论文题目：我国基础设施公募REITs的价值评估效果研究——以平安广州交投
广河高速公路为例
论文类型:案例分析
学科专业：金融
摘要
随着我国基础设施需求的不断加强，基础设施建设成为资金的主
要流向之一，但在基础设施内部的存量资金始终没有得到有效利用，
2020-2021年发改委多次发文推动基础设施REITs试点工作，盘活基
础设施内部资金，增强资金流动性，拓宽投融资渠道。REITs作为一
种新型融资工具，既具有金融性质也具有不动产性质，其内在的复杂
性使得投资者担心价值评估的准确性受到影响。为了使得基础设施
REITs推广工作加速发展，缓解投资者对于基础设施REITs价值的不
信任问题，需要改进现有的基础设施REITs价值评估方式。
本文首先对REITs进行分析，国内目前对于基础设施REITs的价
值评估研究较少，且方法原始，基本采用人为确定变量的方式得到固
定预测价值，忽略了内外部变化及人为因素对价值的影响，造成价值
评估结果的偏差甚至是错误。因此本文从传统收益法出发，研究影响
REITs价值的各项参数及其影响程度。选取广河高速公路REITs作为
案例分析的主体，对项目的基本情况进行分析，针对基础设施项目的
收益特点，采取传统收益法并利用蒙特卡洛模拟对传统收益法进行改
进，经过对项目的价值进行评估，总结基础设施REITs项目的价值评
估方法。
经过研究，本文得出结论，传统收益法与加入蒙特卡洛模拟的收
益法均能对基础设施 REITs的价值进行评估，且比目前交易价格高，
说明广河高速公路REITs具有可投资性。而加入蒙特卡洛的收益法能
够得出项目价值的区间，为投资者提供更大的选择空间以及决策范围。
蒙特卡洛模拟改进的收益法也能进一步排除内外部环境变化以及人
为因素对于价值评估结果造成的负面影响，评估效果更好，能为投资
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者及各参与项目主体提供了一定的价值评估建议与参考，未来基础设
施REITs价值评估改进提供方向。
关键词：基础设施REITs；价值评估效果；收益法；蒙特卡洛模拟
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Abstract
Abstract
As Chinese infrastructure needs to be continuously strengthened,
infrastructure construction has become one of the main streams of capital,
but the stock of capital within infrastructure has never been effectively
utilized. From 2020 to 2021, Development and Reform Commission has
repeatedly issued documents to promote infrastructure REITs pilot work,
revitalize infrastructure internal capital, enhance capital liquidity, and
broaden investment and financing channels. REITs, as a new type of
financing tool, is both financial and real estate in nature, and its inherent
complexity makes investors worry that whether the accuracy of value
assessment is affected. In order to accelerate the promotion of
infrastructure REITs and alleviate investors' mistrust in the value of
infrastructure REITs, the existing method of assessing the value needs to
be improved.
This paper first analyzes REITs. There are few studies on the value
assessment of infrastructure REITs in China, and the methods are primitive,
basically using artificially determined variables to obtain a fixed forecast
value, ignoring the influence of internal and external changes and human
factors on the value, resulting in deviations or even errors in the value
assessment results. Therefore, this paper studies the parameters affecting
the value of REITs and the degree of their influence from the traditional
income method. The Guanghe Expressway REITs are selected as the
subject of the case study, and the project value is evaluated using the
traditional income approach and the income approach improved by adding
Monte Carlo simulation after analyzing the basic conditions of the project.
After the case study, this paper concludes that both the traditional income
approach and the income approach incorporating Monte Carlo simulation
are able to assess the value of infrastructure REITs. The higher current
trading price also indicats that the Guanghe Expressway REITs are
investable. The income method with the addition of Monte Carlo is able to
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