iii 摘要 近几年，长租公寓市场开始发展火热，长租公寓与互联网的结合，使得人们租 房更加便捷。发展到一定阶段，长租公寓企业在资本市场上筹资、兼并、融资及重 组等开始活跃起来，无论作为投资者、所有者、管理者还是监督者，都必须要准确 地了解企业价值、企业价值的驱动因素，以及如何通过决策来提高企业的价值。 本文研究问题：长租公寓企业的价值评估及价值提升问题。 本文研究思路：本文基于长租公寓企业的现状，通过对现有估值模型的修正得 到了以用户价值为核心的非财务指标价值评估模型。传统的企业估值主要是基于 财务指标进行估值，估值方法包括：收益法、成本法、市场法、实物期权法；互联 网的估值体系主要有两种，一是基于财务指标的评估方法体系，另外一种是基于非 财务指标的评估方法体系。基于财务指标的价值评估方法没有太多本质上的改变， 而基于非财务指标的估值方法引入了用户价值概念，有比较大的创新。本文对互联 网欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司和长租公寓欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司进行了分析，分析了长租公寓企业的互联网特性，把互联网 企业的价值评估公式用在长租公寓欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司。本文使用把引入齐普夫定律的国泰君安 定性估值公式运用到长租公寓企业中，其中国泰君安定性估值公式以梅特卡夫定 律为基础，在DEVA估值模型的引入了曾李青定律。本文使用上述价值评估模型 对D公司进行估值，并与市场价值进行比较，验证了此模型的适用性。最后基于 价值评估公式提取价值驱动因素，基于价值驱动因素提出价值提升策略。 本文研究结论：首先，长租公寓企业具有：以用户为中心、平均成本递减、无 形资产多、经营风险大等互联网特性，加上长租公寓企业具有：盈利不确定、缺乏 历史数据、缺乏可比企业、非财务因素影响大等特点，因此不适合使用传统财务估 值方法，而使用基于用户价值的估值方法是可行的。其次，本文基于修正的估值模 型对案例公司D公司进行价值评估，结果与市场价值比较接近，说明本文的价值 评估模型具有一定的可行性。最后，提取基于用户价值方法估值的价值提升驱动因 素：变现因子、网络用户数、节点距离，并针对价值提升因素提出了价值提升策略。 本文的新意：（1）对互联网长租公寓企业的估值方法做了系统的研究。（2）根 据长租公寓的现状对估值模型的参数进行量化。（3）识别长租公寓价值驱动因素提 出合理的提升方法，有较大的现实意义。 关键词：长租公寓；梅特卡夫定律；用户价值；价值评估 北京交通大学硕士专业学位论文 ABSTRACT iv ABSTRACT In recent years, the development of the long-term rental apartment market has become increasingly fierce. The combination of long-term rental apartments and the Internet has made it easier for people to rent. At a certain stage of development, long-term rental apartment companies have become active in the capital market for financing, mergers, financing and reorganization. Whether as investors, owners, managers or supervisors, they must accurately understand the enterprise value and enterprise value Driving factors and how to increase the value of the enterprise through decision-making. The main research subject: the value evaluation and value enhancement of long- term rental apartment companies. Research ideas: Based on the current situation of long-term apartment companies, this paper obtains a non-financial indicator value evaluation model with user value as the core through the modification of the existing valuation model. Traditional corporate valuation is mainly based on financial indicators. Valuation methods include: income method, cost method, market method, and real option method; there are two main types of Internet valuation. One is the evaluation method based on financial indicators, the other is an evaluation method based on non-financial indicators. The valuation method based on financial indicators has not changed much in nature, while the valuation method based on non-financial indicators introduces the concept of user value, and has relatively large innovations. This article analyzes the Internet industry and the long-term rental apartment industry, analyzes the Internet characteristics of long-term rental apartment companies, and uses the value evaluation formula of Internet companies in the long-term rental apartment industry.In this paper, Guotai Junan ’s valuation formula that introduces Zipf ’s Law is used to obtain an improved valuation model for long-term rental apartment companies. Guotai Junan ’s valuation formula based on Metcalfe ’s law is introduced Zeng Liqing's law in the DEVA valuation model. This article takes company D as an example, uses an improved value evaluation model to evaluate the enterprise value, and compares it with the market value to verify the validity of the valuation model. Finally, based on the value evaluation formula, the value driving factors are extracted, and the value promotion strategy is proposed based on the value driving factors. Research conclusions: First, long-term rental apartment companies have Internet characteristics such as user-centricity, diminishing average costs, many intangible assets, and high operational risks. In addition, long-term rental apartment companies have: 北京交通大学硕士专业学位论文 ABSTRACT v uncertain earnings, lack of historical data, and lack of comparable The characteristics of enterprises and non-financial factors have great influence, so it is not suitable to use traditional financial valuation methods, but it is feasible to use valuation methods based on user value. Secondly, this paper evaluates the value of case company D based on the revised valuation model, and the result is relatively close to the market value, indicating that the value evaluation model of this paper has certain feasibility. Finally, extract the driving factors of value enhancement based on the valuation of user value method: monetization factor, number of network users, distance, and put forward a value enhancement strategy for the value enhancement factors. The innovations: (1) make a systematic study on the valuation method of Internet long-term apartment (2) quantify the parameters of the valuation model according to the current status of long-term apartments (3) identify the driving factors of long-term apartment values Putting forward a reasonable promotion strategy has great practical significance. KEYWORDS：long-term rental apartment; Metcalfe's law; user value; value evaluation 北京交通大学硕士专业学位论文 序言 vi 序言 北京交通大学硕士专业学位论文 目录 vii 目录 摘要 .................. III ABSTRACT ........... IV 序言 .................... VI 1 引言 ............... 1 1.1 研究背景与问题 .................... 1 1.2 研究意义 . 2 1.3 研究思路与方法 .................... 2 1.3.1 研究思路 ....................... 2 1.3.2 研究方法 ....................... 2 1.4 本文特色 . 3 1.5 本文的结构 ............................ 4 2 文献回顾与理论介绍 ................... 6 2.1 文献回顾 . 6 2.1.1 企业价值评估相关研究 6 2.1.2 互联网企业估值相关研究............................ 8 2.1.3 商业模式相关研究 ...... 10 2.1.4 文献述评 ..................... 11 2.2 理论介绍 .............................. 12 3 长租公寓企业估值方法分析 ..... 14 3.1 互联网企业概况分析........... 14 3.1.1 互联网企业特点 .......... 14 3.1.2 互联网企业盈利模式 .. 15 3.1.3 互联网企业价值来源 .. 16 3.2 长租公寓企业概况分析 ....... 17 3.2.1 长租公寓概念界定 ...... 17 3.2.2 长租公寓类型 .............. 17 3.2.3 长租公寓运营模式 ...... 19 3.2.4 长租公寓的互联网特征 ............................. 21 北京交通大学硕士专业学位论文 目录 viii 3.3 长租公寓企业价值评估方法分析 ...................... 22 3.3.1 长租公寓企业估值难点 ............................. 22 3.3.2 企业价值评估方法局限性.......................... 23 3.4 长租公寓企业估值模型的构建 .......................... 24 3.4.1 用户价值与企业价值 .. 24 3.4.2 评估模型理论基础 ...... 25 3.4.3 相关估值模型分析 ...... 25 3.4.4 估值模型的确定 .......... 26 3.4.5 模型特点及适用性分析 ............................. 27 3.5 本章小结 .............................. 28 4 D公司价值评估 ......................... 30 4.1 D公司整体概况 ................... 30 4.1.1 公司概况 ..................... 30 4.1.2 欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司概况分析 .............. 32 4.1.3 欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司地位分析 .............. 36 4.1.4 案例企业的适用性分析 ............................. 38 4.2 D公司商业模式分析 ........... 38 4.3 D公司财务状况分析 ........... 42 4.3.1 资产负债率 .................. 42 4.3.2 收入与亏损分析 .......... 43 4.3.3 盈利能力分析 .............. 43 4.3.4 成本结构分析 ..............