城市化在一定程度上是社会经济发展和社会工业化的产物，也是社会进步的重要标 志。随着城市规模的迅速扩大，中国许多大中型城市出现了具有中国特色的村庄，这些 村庄阻碍了城市的发展和布局，影响了城市的建设规划。作为中国第一批改革和发展的 城市，深圳在城市规模迅速扩大的同时，也在城市地区产生了大量的村庄。近年来，深 圳已经开始在城中村改造的基础上实施有计划的城市更新项目，但是这些项目受到许多 因素的影响，如主体和模糊的政策，并且比普通的房地产项目面临更多的风险。本文从 风险管理的角度，以深圳市罗湖J公司XT城市更新项目为分析对象，系统分析了城市 更新项目的风险。本文的主要内容如下。 本文是XT城市更新项目的一份经济效益调查报告，首先介绍了目前房地产市场所 处的城市更新项目的政策背景和市场环境，接着从项目的地理区位条件及项目的经济数 据对房地产项目以及城市更新的宏观环境进行了分析，从国家土地政策、调控政策、金 融政策及税收政策分析了国家房地产政策，结合深圳市规划及深圳市的房地产市场，对 项目所在区域进行了分析，同时进行了项目的财务分析，对典型竞争对手摸排，从项目 总投资估算、项目投资计划、项目经营收入估算、销售及经营税金和成本估算、项目利 润估算、项目综合经济效益分析等多个方面对项目的财务投资，经济收益进行了相应的 测算及评估；最后对项目进行了财务及风险进行综合评定。 关键词：房地产；城市更新；经济效益；调查报告；可行性研究 II Abstract To a certain extent, urbanization is the product of socio-economic development and social industrialization, and it is also an important symbol of social progress. With the rapid expansion of urban scale, villages with Chinese characteristics have appeared in many large and medium-sized cities in China. These villages have hindered the development and layout of the city and affected the construction planning of the city. As China's first reform and development cities, Shenzhen has produced a large number of villages in urban areas while its urban scale has expanded rapidly. In recent years, Shenzhen has begun to implement planned urban renewal projects based on the reconstruction of villages in the city, but these projects are affected by many factors, such as subject and vague policies, and face more risks than ordinary real estate projects. From the perspective of risk management, this paper takes Shenzhen Luohu J Company XT urban renewal project as the analysis object, and systematically analyzes the risk of urban renewal project. The main contents of this paper are as follows. This paper is an economic benefit survey report of XT urban renewal project. First, it introduces the policy background and market environment of the urban renewal project in which the real estate market is located. Then it analyzes the real estate project and the macro-environment of urban renewal from the geographical location and economic data of the project. Land policy, regulation policy, financial policy and taxation policy are analyzed in this paper. Combined with Shenzhen planning and Shenzhen real estate market, the area where the project is located is analyzed. At the same time, the financial analysis of the project is carried out. Typical competitors are arranged according to the total investment estimate and project investment plan. The financial investment and economic income of the project are estimated and evaluated in many aspects, such as the estimation of project operating income, sales and operating tax and cost, the estimation of project profit, and the analysis of comprehensive economic benefits of the project. Key words: real estate; urban renewal; economic efficiency; investigation report; feasibility study III 目录 摘要 ............................................................................................................................................. I Abstract .................................................................................................................................... II 第一章绪论 ................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 研究背景和意义 ............................................................................................................. 1 1.1.1 研究背景 ................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 研究对象和问题 ....................................................................................................... 2 1.1.3 论文的研究意义 ....................................................................................................... 2 1.2 文献综述 ......................................................................................................................... 3 1.2.1 项目策划研究现状 ................................................................................................... 3 1.2.2 城市更新研究现状 ................................................................................................... 5 1.3 论文内容和方法 ............................................................................................................. 6 1.3.1 主要研究内容 ........................................................................................................... 6 1.3.2 研究方法 ................................................................................................................... 7 1.4 本章小结 ......................................................................................................................... 7 第二章项目的背景和内容 ........................................................................................................ 8 2.1 项目的背景 ..................................................................................................................... 8 2.1.1 项目的位置 ............................................................................................................... 8 2.1.2 项目的历史沿革 ..................................................................................................... 10 2.1.3 项目的现状 ............................................................................................................. 12 2.1.4 项目周边配套情况 ................................................................................................. 13 2.1.5 项目改造的必要性 ................................................................................................. 15 2.2 项目的内容 ................................................................................................................... 16 2.2.1 项目的范围 ............................................................................................................. 16 2.2.2 政府的要求 ............................................................................................................. 16 2.2.3 项目的内容 ............................................................................................................. 16 2.3 项目经济效益分析的目的和要求 ............................................................................... 17 2.3.1 目的 ......................................................................................................................... 17 2.3.2 要求 ......................................................................................................................... 17 2.4 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 18 IV 第三章项目投资环境 .............................................................................................................. 19 3.1 项目宏观环境 ............................................................................................................... 19 3.1.1 国民经济发展 ......................................................................................................... 19 3.1.2 固定资产投资 ......................................................................................................... 19 3.1.3 社会消费品零售总额 ............................................................................................. 20 3.1.4 房地产业快速发展存在很大不确定性 .........