十九大以来，乡村振兴战略提升至国家战略高度，村镇银行作为为当地农民、农 业和农村经济发展提供金融服务的主力军，也是乡村振兴战略提升的重要推力。2018 年中央一号文件提出要加大农村金融服务、金融产品和金融模式的创新力度，加大农 村小额信贷的发展力度，发展适合农村的农村金融圈。农村金融环境的改善和农村金 融体系的完善，对促进农村金融体系的不断完备和改善，支持社会主义新农村建设具 有积极的意义。在新农村建设和乡村振兴战略背景下，村镇银行的发展亦成为促进乡 村经济发挥了不可小觑的力量。 本文主要采用文献研究法、实地访谈法以及层次分析法的研究方法。从村镇银行 与风险概念的辨析入手，通过对国资委提出的风险管理基本流程和ISO31000提出的 风险管理过程的解读为JZ村镇银行风险识别与评价以及防范策略的提出奠定理论基 础。通过文献研究法归纳总结出商业银行存在的风险类别。以JZ村镇银行为研究对 象，通过JZ村镇银行各个部门与支行的专家进行重点访谈和实地走访，对JZ村镇银 行存在的风险和影响因素进行了全面的调查分析，通过访谈搜集了JZ村镇银行风险 与防范的大量数据，选取风险评价指标，根据层次分析法确定指标权重，进行定量分 析，进而构建了JZ村镇银行风险评价体系，最终得到JZ村镇银行的风险评价结果。 同时，按照风险分析与评价指标，对风险防范的总体思路提出目标、影响因素和方案 决策。 本文的创新点在于采用层次分析法对识别出的JZ村镇银行的风险进行评价，构 建风险评价指标体系，通过构建判断矩阵和层次总排序确定风险指标权重，进而得出 JZ村镇银行风险防范的策略措施。 关键词：村镇银行；风险防范策略；风险识别；风险评价；层次分析法 III ABSTRACT Sincethe19thNationalCongress,theruralrevitalizationstrategyhasbeenupgraded tothenationalstrategiclevel.Asthemainforceforprovidingfinancialservicesforlocal farmers,agricultureandruraleconomicdevelopment,ruralbanksarealsoanimportant thrustforthepromotionofruralrevitalizationstrategy.In2018,theNo.1Documentofthe CentralCommitteeproposedtointensifytheinnovationofruralfinancialservices, financialproductsandfinancialmodels,increasethedevelopmentofruralmicrofinance, anddevelopruralfinancialcirclessuitableforruralareas.Theimprovementoftherural financialenvironmentandtheimprovementoftheruralfinancialsystemhavepositive significanceforpromotingthecontinuousimprovementandimprovementoftherural financialsystemandsupportingtheconstructionofanewsocialistcountryside.Underthe backgroundofthenewruralconstructionandruralrevitalizationstrategy,thedevelopment ofruralbankshasalsobecomeaforcetopromotetheruraleconomy. Thispapermainlyusestheresearchmethodsofliteratureresearchmethod,field interviewmethodandanalytichierarchyprocess.Startingfromtheanalysisoftheconcept ofvillagebanksandrisks,throughtheinterpretationofthebasicprocessofrisk managementproposedbytheSASACandtheriskmanagementprocessproposedby ISO31000,itlaysatheoreticalfoundationfortheriskidentificationandevaluationofJZ villagebanksandthepreventionstrategy.TakingJZvillagebankastheresearchobject, throughthekeyinterviewsandfieldvisitsbyexpertsfromvariousdepartmentsand sub-branchesofJZvillagebanks,theriskandinfluencingfactorsofJZvillagebankswere comprehensivelyanalyzedandanalyzed,andtheriskofJZvillagebankswascollected throughinterviews.Withalargeamountofdataforprevention,theriskevaluation indicatorsareselected,theweightsoftheindicatorsaredeterminedaccordingtothe analytichierarchyprocess,quantitativeanalysisiscarriedout,andtheriskevaluationresult ofthevillagebankofJZisfinallyobtained.Atthesametime,accordingtotheriskanalysis andevaluationindicators,theobjectives,influencingfactorsandprogramdecisionsofthe overallriskpreventionareproposed. Theinnovationofthispaperistousetheanalytichierarchyprocesstoevaluatethe identifiedrisksofJZvillagebanks,constructariskevaluationindexsystem,determinethe weightofriskindicatorsbyconstructingjudgmentmatrixandhierarchicaltotalorder,and thenderivetheriskpreventionstrategyofJZvillagebanks. Keywords: VillageBank，Riskpreventionstrategy，Riskidentification，Riskevaluation， Analytichierarchyprocess 目录 摘要.....................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT ..........................................................................................................................II 第一章绪论.....................................................................................................................1 1.1选题的背景...............................................................................................................1 1.2研究的目的及意义...................................................................................................2 1.2.1研究的目的.....................................................................................................2 1.2.2研究的意义.....................................................................................................2 1.3国内外研究现状........................................................................................................2 1.4研究内容与研究方法.........................................................................................3 1.4.1研究内容.........................................................................................................4 1.4.2研究方法.........................................................................................................5 1.5创新点.......................................................................................................................5 第二章相关概念与理论基础.............................................................................................6 2.1关键概念...................................................................................................................6 2.2风险管理流程...........................................................................................................8 2.2.1国资委提出的风险管理基本流程.................................................................8 2.2.2ISO31000提出的风险管理过程....................................................................9 2.3层次分析法的基本原理.........................................................................................10 2.4小结.........................................................................................................................12 第三章JZ村镇银行风险识别与评价..............................................................................13 3.1JZ村镇银行发展状况.............................................................................................13 3.1.1JZ村镇银行基本概况...................................................................................13 3.1.2JZ村镇银行组织结构...................................................................................13 3.1.3JZ村镇银行风险管理状况...........................................................................14 3.2JZ村镇银行风险的识别.........................................................................................15 3.2.1操作风险.......................................................................................................15 3.2.2信用风险.......................................................................................................16 3.2.3流动性风险...................................................................................................17 3.2.4市场风险.......................................................................................................18 3.3基于层次分析法的JZ村镇银行风险评价...........................................................19 3.3.1风险评价指标的选取与建立.......................................................................19 3.3.2各个层次指标的判断矩阵...........................................................................20 3.3.3各个层次中指标权重总排序.......................................................................22 3.3.4指标权重的总排序结果...............................................................................22 3.4小结.........................................................................................................................23 第四章JZ村镇银行的风险防范策略..............................................................................25