政府和社会资本合作（Public-PrivatePartnership，缩写PPP）模式目前运用较为 广泛，操作相对成熟，备受世界各国政府重视。PPP模式在中国成长发展时间较短， 当前在鼓励国有控股企业、民营企业、混合所有制企业、外商投资企业等各类社会资 本参与公共基础设施建设进来的同时，如何有效识别和应对PPP项目风险是当前面 临的关键问题。 本文以Z市四环线快速路PPP项目开展研究，对PPP模式的相关概念以及风险 特征进行了全面阐述，同时采用德尔菲法、核查表法和WBS-RBS等分析法对项目风 险因素进行识别，在此基础上运用层次分析法和模糊综合评价法对该项目的风险进行 系统评价，并计算出各个风险的权重值从而建立项目风险分担方案。在公平的市场运 行环境、合理的投资回报机制以及明确的风险分配基本框架基础上，将项目的建造、 运营、法律、政策等风险在政府与社会资本之间进行合理、有效、公平地分担，避免 了不合理的风险分担格局，提高了项目对抗风险的能力，展现了政府和社会资本作为 合作伙伴关系共享项目运行过程中的风险控制成果。 另外，本文基于对Z市四环线快速路PPP项目背景状况分析的基础上，从PPP 风险管理视角出发，对超大型基础设施建设推广PPP模式的风险分担方案进行研究 并提出了一些新的思考。同时，项目的建设以及后期的运营建议方案可以继续在其他 PPP项目中借鉴。 关键词：PPP模式；风险识别；层次分析法 II Abstract ThePPPmodeliscurrentlywidelyusedanditsoperationisrelativelymature,which hasattractedmuchattentionfromgovernmentsaroundtheworld.ThePPPmodelhasbeen growinginChinaforashortperiodoftime.Atpresent,whileencouragingvarioussocial capitalsuchasstate-ownedholdingcompanies,privateenterprises,mixed-ownership enterprises,andforeign-investedenterprisestoparticipate,effectivelyidentifyingand respondingtotherisksofPPPprojectsisthekeyissuecurrently. ThispaperconductsresearchonthePPPprojectoftheFourthRingRoadExpressway inZCity,andcomprehensivelyexplainstherelatedconceptsandriskcharacteristicsofthe PPPmodel.Atthesametime,checklistmethodandwbs-rbsareusedtoidentifyprojectrisk factors.Onthisbasis,thefuzzycomprehensiveevaluationmethodandanalytichierarchy processisusedtosystematicallyevaluatetheriskoftheproject,andtheweightvalueof eachriskiscalculatedtoestablishaprojectrisksharingscheme.Basedonafairmarket operatingenvironment,areasonableinvestmentreturnmechanism,andaclearbasic frameworkforriskallocation,theprojectconstruction,operationandmanagement,law,and policyrisksshouldbereasonably,effectivelybetweengovernmentandsocialcapital.The irrationalrisksharingstructureisavoided,andtheabilityoftheprojecttocombatrisksis improved.Thegovernmentandsocialcapitalalsosharetheresultsoftheprojectoperation processthroughpartnerships. Inaddition,basedontheanalysisofthebackgroundsituationofthePPPprojectonthe FourthRingRoadExpresswayinZCity,thispaperstudiestherisksharingschemeofthe PPPmodeltopromotetheconstructionofverylargeinfrastructuresfromtheperspective ofPPPriskmanagement,andproposessomenewideas.Atthesametime,theproject constructionandthelateroperationproposalcancontinuetobeusedforreferenceinother III PPPprojects. Keywords:Public-PrivatePartnershipmode;Riskidentification;AHP 目录 第一章绪论..........................................................................................................................1 1.1研究背景和意义...................................................................................................1 1.1.1研究背景..................................................................................................1 1.1.2研究意义..................................................................................................4 1.2文献综述...............................................................................................................5 1.2.1国外文献综述.........................................................................................5 1.2.2国内文献综述.........................................................................................6 1.3研究内容...............................................................................................................8 1.4研究方法...............................................................................................................8 1.5技术路线...............................................................................................................8 1.6可能的创新点.......................................................................................................9 第二章相关理论基础......................................................................................................10 2.1PPP模式概述......................................................................................................10 2.1.1PPP模式的概念....................................................................................10 2.1.2PPP模式特点........................................................................................11 2.1.3PPP模式类型........................................................................................12 2.2PPP模式风险管理理论......................................................................................14 2.2.1风险管理理论.......................................................................................14 2.2.2PPP项目风险的特征............................................................................15 2.3PPP风险来源及识别方法..................................................................................16 2.3.1风险来源...............................................................................................15 2.3.2风险识别的方法...................................................................................15 2.4风险分类.............................................................................................................15 2.5公共产品有关理论.............................................................................................18 2.6本章小结.............................................................................................................19 第三章PPP模式下的Z市四环线快速路项目风险识别...............................................20 3.1Z市四环线快速路PPP项目的风险识别..........................................................20 3.1.1项目概况...............................................................................................20 3.1.2项目交易结构.......................................................................................22 3.1.3项目投资估算.......................................................................................23 3.1.4项目合同体系.......................................................................................24 3.1.5项目存在风险因素................................................................................24 3.2Z市四环线快速路PPP项目风险因素分析......................................................25 3.2.1政治风险...............................................................................................25 3.2.2法律法规风险.......................................................................................27 3.2.3经济风险...............................................................................................27 3.2.4外部环境风险.......................................................................................28 3.2.5建造风险...............................................................................................28 3.2.6经营风险...............................................................................................29 3.3本章小结.............................................................................................................30 第四章PPP模式下的四环线快速路项目风险评价.......................................................31 4.1风险评价的方法.................................................................................................31 4.1.1层次分析法...........................................................................................31 4.1.2模糊综合评价法...................................................................................31 4.2基于AHP的模糊综合评价步骤.........................................................................31 4.2.1建立指标层次结构...........................................