I 摘要 近年来，随着我国经济从高速发展转向高质量发展，国家不再一味追求大型工业 建设，开始倡导绿色、低碳、环保、高效的经济建设目标。国内外对新型清洁能源的 发展越来越重视，大力开发太阳能，风能，潮汐，地热，页岩气等清洁能源综合利用， 其中天然气分布式能源系统在新能源中得到广泛应用，可以实现同时对多种能源进行 供给，有较高的能源利用率，大幅减少污染物排放，大大改善生活环境，节省能源供 给输送距离损耗和节约空间建设成本，未来具有巨大的发展潜力。 分布式能源以天然气作为原材料进行生产，以冷热电联供的形式实现较高的综合 能源利用率，可以就近布置在负荷中心进行能源供应的现代能源供应方式。与传统的 集中式能源供给相比，分布式能源系统可以直接面向用户，同时提供各种形式的能源， 具有节能，环保，安全，高经济效益等显著特点。 本文结合当前分布式能源发展的趋势，对在产业园区投资建设天然气分布式能源 项目的投资决策进行研究，结合MZ产业园分布式能源项目的具体情况，通过实地调 研分析市场需求，在满足该地区工业、商业、研发、公共等用户对电力、蒸汽等综合 型能源的要求，从内外部环境、技术方案、经济评价、社会影响和风险控制等方面， 以及国家节能减排，低碳经济角度探讨分析在产业园区投资建设分布式能源项目的投 资战略。本文通过研究在经济发达，环保高要求的产业园区投资建设分布式能源项目 决策过程的经验，将在粤港澳大湾区起到先行先试的作用，对国内特别是在能源集中 消耗的产业园区大规模投资建设分布式能源项目的决策战略具有一定的参考价值。 关键词：分布式能源项目；投资决策分析；战略投资研究 广东工业大学硕士学位论文 II Abstract Inrecentyears,China'seconomydevelopmenthasbeenshiftedfromhigh-speedto high-quality.Chinapursuesnolongerlarge-scaleindustrialconstruction,butbeginsto advocategreen,low-carbon,environmentalfriendlyandefficienteconomicconstruction goals.Itpaysincreasingattentiontothedevelopmentofnewcleanenergyathomeand abroad.Cleanenergy,suchassolar,wind,tidal,geothermal,shalegas,wouldbevigorously developedintothecomprehensiveutilization.Thedistributedenergysystemusingnatural gasisawidelyusedforminnewenergyfield.Itcansupplymultipleenergysourcesatthe sametime,ithashighenergyutilizationrate,itreducesgreatlypollutantemissions,andit isveryheplpfulforimproveingtheenvironment.Itreducesgreatlywastagewhiletheenergy supply-andtransportation-distance,anditsavesspaceconstructioncost.Ithasagreat potentialdevelopmentinthefuture. Thedistributedenergysystemusesnaturalgasasrawmaterial,achievinghigh comprehensiveenergyutilizationrateintheformofcombinedcooling,heatingandpower supply,whichcanbearrangedinthenearbyloadcenterforenergysupplyparedwith thetraditionalcentralizedenergysupply,thedistributedenergysystemfacesusersdirectly andprovidesvariousformsofenergyatthesametime.Ithassignificantcharacteristicsof energysaving,environmentalfriendly,safety,higheconomicefficiency. Basedonthecurrenttrendofdistributedenergysystemdevelopment,thispaperstudies theinvestmentdecisionfortheconstructiondistributedenergyprojectsusingnatralgasin theindustrialpark.Itcombineswiththespecificsituationofdistributedenergyprojectsin MZIndustrialPark.Itanalysisesthemarketdemandthroughfieldresearch,inordertomeet therequirementsofindustrial,commercial,R&D,publicandotherusersforcomprehensive energy.Thispaperstudiestheexperienceofthedecision-makingprocess,whichisaboutthe investmentandconstructionofthedistributedenergyprojectsinindustrialparks,whichisin developedandhighenvironmentalprotectionrequiredarea.Itwillplayaleadingrolein GuangdongHongKongMacaoBayarea.Ithasreferencevaluetothedecision-making strategyoflarge-scaleinvestmentintheconstructionofdistributedenergyprojects, especiallyintheindustrialparkswithconcentratedenergyconsumption. Keywords:Naturalgasdistributedenergy;Investmentdecisionanalysis;Strategic investmentresearch 目 录 III 目录 摘要.........................................................................................................................................I Abstract....................................................................................................................................II 目录.......................................................................................................................................III Contents....................................................................................................................................V 第一章绪论.............................................................................................................................1 1.1研究背景.....................................................................................................................1 1.2研究意义......................................................................................................................2 1.3研究内容......................................................................................................................2 1.4研究方法......................................................................................................................3 第二章相关概念和文献综述.................................................................................................5 2.1分布式能源概念.........................................................................................................5 2.1.1分布式能源的涵义和特点...............................................................................5 2.1.2国内外分布式能源欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司发展...........................................................................5 2.2相关文献综述.............................................................................................................7 2.2.1项目投资决策的相关研究...............................................................................7 2.2.2项目投资决策的分析工具...............................................................................8 第三章投资决策框架和能源需求分析...............................................................................11 3.1投资决策分析思路...................................................................................................11 3.2MZ产业园地理概况.................................................................................................12 3.3热负荷需求分析.......................................................................................................12 3.4电力负荷需求...........................................................................................................14 3.5项目方案初步设计...................................................................................................15 第四章MZ产业园分布式能源项目环境分析...................................................................17 4.1分布式能源项目的外部宏观环境分析....................................................................17 4.1.1政策环境分析.................................................................................................17 4.1.2经济环境分析.................................................................................................18 4.1.3社会环境分析.................................................................................................18 4.1.4技术环境分析.................................................................................................19 广东工业大学硕士学位论文 IV 4.2分布式能源项目投资建设环境因素分析...............................................................20 4.2.1优势与机遇分析.............................................................................................20 4.2.2劣势与威胁分析.............................................................................................21 第五章MZ产业园分布式能源项目效益分析...................................................................23 5.1分布式能源项目经济效益分析...............................................................................23 5.1.1投资估算.........................................................................................................23 5.1.2财务分析.........................................................................................................26 5.1.3财务评价.........................................................................................................34 5.2分布式能源