火电是我国的主要发电形式。其中，煤电提供了近70%的电量，研究和分析 燃煤电厂的效率值及其影响因素至关重要。此外，为提高空气质量，天然气发电 的比例开始有所增加，特别是我国在2012年底进行采暖锅炉的“煤改气”政策， 进一步提高了燃气发电的比例。 这篇文章采用DEA模型，首先评估了燃煤电厂的环境效率，并结合回归模型 分析了电厂效率值的影响因素；其次，估计了燃煤电厂和燃气电厂的综合效率和 能源成本效率，比较分析了两组电厂效率值的差异。为了更直观的衡量“煤改气” 政策对火电厂效率的影响，文章通过Malmquist指数衡量研究期内效率值的变化。 研究结果发现, 不同地区的燃煤电厂效率存在差异，东部地区的效率显著优 于中部和西部地区。另外，电厂的效率与电厂役龄负相关；经济水平越高的地区， 其电厂的效率值也越高，但是这一结论在西部地区不成立；电厂规模正向影响电 厂的效率；在中部地区，非国有的发电厂的效率表现要优于国有发电厂。燃煤和 燃气电厂的比较分析发现，第一，燃气电厂在两种处置性下的综合效率值均高于 燃煤电厂；第二、在不考虑非期望产出时，燃气电厂的能源成本效率要低于燃煤 电厂，加入非期望产出的约束会显著提高燃气电厂的成本效率，甚至会超过燃煤 电厂；第三，电煤价格并轨政策缩小了发电用煤和天然气的价格差异，提高了燃 气电厂的成本效率。基于研究结果，从优化电力生产以及提高天然气发电的经济 效益方面提出相关政策建议。 关键词：燃煤电厂，燃气电厂，DEA，综合效率，成本效率 II ABSTRACT Thermal power is the main form of power generation in China. Coal provides nearly 70 % of generation, so it is important to study the efficiency of coal-fired power plants and the factors that have impact on efficiency. In addition, in order to improve the air quality, the proportion of natural gas power generation began to increase, especially the " coal-to-gas" policy of heating boilers from 2012, which further increased the proportion of gas power generation. This paper applies DEA model to evaluate the environmental efficiency of coal- fired power plants, and analyzes the factors affecting the efficiency of power plants by regression model. It not only estimates comprehensive efficiency and cost efficiency of coal-fired power plants and gas-fired power plants but also compared the differences between the two groups. In order to estimate the impact of the " coal-to-gas" policy on the efficiency of thermal power plants, Malmquist index is applied to measure the change of efficiency value. The results are as followed, the efficiency of coal-fired power plants different among regions, which of eastern China is significantly higher than that in the central and western China. In addition, we found that economic development also affect the efficiency. The size of the power plant has a positive impact on the efficiency value. From the ownership perspective, the efficiency of non-state power plants is higher than that of the state-owned ones in central region. A comparative analysis of coal-fired and gas-fired power plants finds that, first, the comprehensive efficiency of gas-fired power plants is higher than that of coal-fired power plants under both natural and managerial disposability; second, the cost efficiency of gas-fired power plants is lower than that of coal-fired power plant with non-inclusion of unexpected outputs; lastly, China’s coal price consolidation policy has narrowed the price gap between power coal and natural gas, and increased energy cost efficiency of gas power generation. Based on these results, some policy suggestions are put forward from the aspects of optimizing power production and improving the economic benefits of natural gas power generation. KEYWORDS: Coal-fired power plants, Gas-fired power plants, DEA, Unified efficiency, Cost efficiency 目录 摘要 ................................................................................................................................ I ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................ II 第1章 绪论 .................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 研究背景和意义 ............................................................................................ 1 1.1.1 研究背景 ............................................................................................ 1 1.1.2 研究意义 ............................................................................................ 3 1.2 研究方法和创新之处 .................................................................................... 4 1.2.1 研究方法 ............................................................................................ 4 1.2.2 创新之处 ............................................................................................ 4 1.3 研究思路和框架思路 .................................................................................. 4 第2章 发电欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司研究现状 .......................................................................................... 7 2.1 电力欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司静态效率及相关方法研究综述 .................................................... 7 2.2 电力欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司动态效率及相关方法研究综述 .................................................. 11 2.3 电力部门能源和环境效率影响因素研究综述 .......................................... 12 2.4 本章小结 ...................................................................................................... 12 第3章 效率评价方法 ................................................................................................ 15 3.1 传统的DEA效率评估方法 ........................................................................ 15 3.1.1 发电厂单一时期生产和环境效率评价模型 .................................. 15 3.1.2 跨期窗口DEA分析框架 ................................................................ 16 3.2 两种处置性下效率评价模型 ...................................................................... 17 3.2.1 生产效率和环境效率 ...................................................................... 17 3.2.2 自然与管理性下的Malmquist指数 .............................................. 19 3.3 能源成本效率 .............................................................................................. 20 3.4 本章小结 ...................................................................................................... 21 第4章 燃煤电厂生产和环境效率研究分析 ........................................................... 23 4.1 数据和变量选取 .......................................................................................... 23 4.1.1 研究对象 .......................................................................................... 23 4.1.2 数据来源和模型选择 ...................................................................... 23 4.2 结果与分析 .................................................................................................. 24 4.2.1 发电厂综合效率表现的总体概况 .................................................. 24 4.2.2 分区域分析 ...................................................................................... 26 4.2.3 燃煤电厂综合效率影响因素分析 .................................................. 27 4.3 本章小结 ...................................................................................................... 29 第5章“煤改气”政策效果研究-基于燃煤电厂和燃气电厂的比较 ........................ 31 5.1 研究对象和数据来源 .................................................................................. 31 5.2 结果 .............................................................................................................. 32 5.2.1 效率分析 .......................................................................................... 32 5.2.2 Malmquist指数分析 ....................................................................... 33 5.3 能源成本效率 .............................................................................................. 36 5.3.1 不考虑环境约束的能源成本效率 .................................................. 36 5.3.2 考虑环境约束的能源成本效率 ...................................................... 39 5.4 本章小结 ....................................................