I 摘要 房地产欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司属于资金密集型产业，在整个项目的经营中，资金的运营和筹措 极其重要，特别是近几年国家对房地产欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司土地储备和银行信贷的政策调控，资 金是房地产企业存活、扩张的一个最重要的条件与生产力。此外房地产欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司是明 显地周期性欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司，对市场、政策的依赖性较大。尤其在近些年国家出台的一系列 针对房地产欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司的调控政策和银行信贷资金投向房地产企业的相关政策越发趋 紧。 房地产融资是房地产金融中核心的组成部分，指在房地产经济活动中通过各 种模式、方法及工具为房地产及相关部门融通资金的金融行为。房地产融资是指 筹集、融通和结算资金所有的金融行为。在我国，房地产项目融资渠道众多，对 银行贷款有较高的依赖性，银行贷款是房地产开发企业主要的融资途径。据保守 估计，房地产开发资金中来自银行贷款占50%以上，如果包含延迟供应商材料付 款、施工企业垫资等，至少有70%。如果房地产出现危机，将直接威胁到银行， 房地产市场的稳定和银行的生存息息相关。如果房地产资金紧绷或断裂，可能会 对整个社会经济稳定甚至对金融业构成灾难性的破坏。在这样的大背景下，作为 房地产企业贷款的提供者，分析MS银行地产金融事业部加强开发贷款项目的风 险管理具有一定的现实意义和指导意义。 本文从MS银行的角度，建立在风险理论的基础上，以MS银行CDMP房地 产开发贷款项目为案例，通过文献查阅法梳理历年专家、学者们对房地产开发贷 款风险管理的观点和看法，基于学者研究的风险识别体系，经过实地调研法和案 例分析法考察项目实际情况、了解企业经营情况等，通过专家问卷法向了解MS 银行CDMP房地产项目的25位专家发放问卷，建立MS银行CDMP房地产开发 贷款项目的风险清单；其次运用层次分析法，通过向25位专家发放问卷，对每一 层次的评价指标重要性进行两两比较，构建判断矩阵并检验矩阵一致性并得到指 标权重，对二级指标的综合指标权重进行排序，最后对排在前五位的风险因素进 行分析，提出具体的风险控制措施，通过对单个案例的分析，对股份制银行房地 产项目开发贷款风险控制提供参考价值。 关键词：房地产开发贷款，风险分析，风险管理 ABSTRADT II ABSTRACT The real estate industry is a capital-intensive industry. In the operation of the whole project, the operation and raising of funds are extremely important. In particular, in recent years, the state has regulated and controlled the land reserve and bank credit in the real estate industry. Funds are one of the most important conditions and productivity for real estate enterprises to survive and expand. In addition, the real estate industry is obviously cyclical and has a great dependence on the market and policies. Especially in recent years, the state has issued a series of regulation and control policies for the real estate industry and the relevant policies for bank credit funds to invest in real estate enterprises have become increasingly tight. Real estate financing is the core component of real estate finance, which refers to the financial behavior of financing real estate and related departments through various modes, methods and tools in real estate economic activities. Real estate financing refers to all financial activities of raising, financing and settling funds. In China, there are many financing channels for real estate projects, which are highly dependent on bank loans. Bank loans are the main financing channels for real estate development enterprises. According to conservative estimates, more than 50% of the real estate development funds come from bank loans, and at least 70% include delayed payment of suppliers' materials and advance payment from construction enterprises. If there is a real estate crisis, it will directly threaten the banks. The stability of the real estate market is closely related to the survival of the banks. If real estate funds are tight or broken, it may cause disastrous damage to the entire social and economic stability and even to the financial industry. Under such a big background, as a real estate enterprise loan provider, it has certain practical and guiding significance to analyze the risk management of the real estate finance division of MS bank to strengthen the development loan project. From the perspective of MS Bank and based on risk theory, this paper takes the CDMP real estate development loan project of MS Bank as an example, sorts out the views and opinions of experts and scholars on the risk management of real estate development loans over the years through literature review. Based on the risk identification system studied by scholars, through on-the-spot investigation and case analysis, it inspects the actual situation of the project and understands the business ABSTRADT III operation, etc. Through expert questionnaire, it issues questionnaires to 25 experts who know about the CDMP real estate development loan project of MS Bank, and establishes the risk list of the CDMP real estate development loan project of MS Bank. Secondly, the AHP method is used to compare the importance of evaluation indexes at each level by issuing questionnaires to 25 experts. The judgment matrix is constructed and the consistency of the matrix is checked to obtain index weights. The comprehensive index weights of the secondary indexes are sorted. Finally, the top five risk factors are analyzed and specific risk control measures are proposed. Through the analysis of a single case, reference value is provided for the risk control of real estate project development loans of joint-stock banks. Keywords: real estate development loan,risk analysis, risk management. 目 录 IV 目 录 第一章 绪 论 .................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 选题背景 ............................................................................................................ 1 1.2 研究目的和意义 ................................................................................................ 2 1.3 国内外研究现状 ................................................................................................ 2 1.3.1 国内研究现状 ........................................................................................ 2 1.3.2 国外研究现状 ........................................................................................ 4 1.3.3 研究评述 ................................................................................................ 4 1.4 研究思路及论文框架 ........................................................................................ 5 1.4.1 研究基本思路 ........................................................................................ 5 1.4.2 论文框架 ................................................................................................ 5 第二章 房地产开发贷款风险管理相关理论 ................................................................ 6 2.1 房地产开发贷款定义 ........................................................................................ 6 2.2 房地产项目开发贷款的风险管理程序 ............................................................ 6 2.3风险管理的相关理论 ........................................................................................ 7 2.3.1 风险识别 ................................................................................................ 8 2.3.2 风险度量 ................................................................................................ 9 2.3.3 风险应对 ............................................................................................... 11 第三章 CDMP房地产开发贷款基本情况 .................................................................. 13 3.1 CDMP房地产开发贷款贷款主体及股东分析 .............................................. 13 3.1.1 CDMP房地产开发贷款贷款主体基本情况 ....................................... 13 3.1.2 股东背景介绍 ...................................................................................... 13 3.2 CDMP房地产开发贷款项目概况 .................................................................. 13 3.2.1 项目介绍 .............................................................................................. 14 3.2.2 项目区域规划 ...................................................................................... 15 3.2.3 周边环境及配套分析 .......................................................................... 16 3.3 项目承建公司概况 ......