会展业不仅能产生巨大的经济和社会效益，还能对地方的科技和经济的发 展起到积极的推动作用。近年来，随着我国会展业的快速发展，各大中城市已 将会展业作为了经济增长的一个重点，大力兴建与会展活动配套的各类型展览 场馆、会议中心。特别是近两三年，我国有一大批多功能、高标准、现代化的 大型会展中心项目在建或正在规划建设。 会展中心项目往往投资数额巨大、投资回收期长、对区域经济影响大，其 项目管理模式和技术方法不同于一般公建项目。因此加强此类项目的前期调 研、全面的进行可行性研究，对项目投资方降低、规避项目风险，提高项目运 作能力，保证项目建设的经济、社会和环境效益有十分重要的意义。 本文以天津 M 会展中心项目（二期）工程为例，从该项目的建设背景开 始分析，通过对国内外会展业发展的研究以及对一系列的市场数据和发展趋势 分析，预测了天津会展业未来发展趋势。再通过对国内外展会类型的分析，勾 勒出该项目的目标市场。采用 SWOT 分析等技术手段，对项目的内部和外部 环境作进一步分析。在市场调研的基础上，结合项目的具体情况，分别对项目 的选址、总体规划、管理模式进行市场定位。最后对项目进行了财务评价、社 会影响评价和风险分析。 本文在结尾进行了总结，本项目虽然从财务角度考虑资金压力较大、存在 一定困难，但若从项目所产生的社会效益考虑，项目仍是可行的，并给出了相 关建议。本文希望通过对该项目的前期策划及可行性研究对项目的定位和规避 风险起到一定的实际意义。 关键词， 会展业； SWOT 分析；可行性研究；项目管理ABSTRACT The exhibition industry can not only produce huge economic and social benefits, but also promote the local economy and development of science. In recent years, with the rapid development of exhibition industry, many cities are putting the industry as a focus of economy growth, and constructing types of convention and exhibition center which supporting the exhibition activities. Especially in last two years, there are a large number of exhibition centers which have large-scale、high standard、modern convention are planning or constructing in our country. These projects usually have the characteristics of huge investment, longtime investment payback, enormous influence to regional economic. They are differet from public construction project, beause of the unique management model Therefore, doing feasibility study have the important significance to reduce risk, improve capacity and ensure the economic, social, environmental benefits. This thesis take Tianjin M Exhibition Project (Phase II) for example, beginning from the background of construction, forecast the trends of exhibition industry in Tianjin through the research of the domestic and foreign development and on a series of market data and development trend. Then based on the type analysis, draw the market. target of project. SWOT analysis is introduced for further. Doing the market positioning, overall planning, management mode respectively, on the foundation of survey, combined with the specific circumstances of project, finally, doing the financial and social effect evaluation, risk analysis of this project. The article finally has carried on the summary. Although there are some troubles in the project from the financial point of view, such as: funds pressure, but it are still viable from the social benefit consideration, and gives the suggestions. This paper expects practical significance of the project location and risk aversion on project through the orientation planning and feasibility study. Key words: Exhibition industry, SWOT analysis, Feasibility reseach, Project management目 录 1 第一章 绪论 ........................................................................................................................1 1.1 选题的背景与意义......................................................................................................1 1.2 本文要研究的问题......................................................................................................2 2 第二章 项目概述 .................................................................................................................4 2.1 项目建设单位概况......................................................................................................4 2.2 项目建设背景.............................................................................................................5 2.3 项目建设的必要性......................................................................................................7 3 第三章 市场分析 .............................................................................................................10 3.1 会展业概述...............................................................................................................10 3.2 会展业发展现状 ....................................................................................................... 11 3.3 政府在推进会展业发展中的作用.............................................................................20 4 第四章 市场需求预测和市场定位分析 ..........................................................................22 4.1 项目目标市场分析....................................................................................................22 4.2 项目 S.W.O.T.分析....................................................................................................30 4.3 项目市场前景...........................................................................................................32 4.4 项目建设规模...........................................................................................................32 5 第五章 项目选址及总体规划方案 ....................................................................................35 5.1 项目选址...................................................................................................................35 5.2 项目建设方案...........................................................................................................39 6 第六章 项目组织管理与项目实施进度计划 ...................................................................43 6.1 项目建设阶段管理模式............................................................................................43 6.2 项目运营阶段管理模式............................................................................................43 6.3 项目实施进度安排....................................................................................................46 7 第七章 投资估算与资金筹措 ..........................................................................................48 7.1 投资估算...................................................................................................................487.2 资金筹措...................................................................................................................52 8 第八章 财务分析 .............................................................................................................54 8.1 编制依据...................................................................................................................54 8.2 基础数据说明...........................................................................................................54 8.3 营业收入与税金 .......................................................................................................55 8.4 经营成本...................................................................................................................58 8.5 财务效益分析...........................................................................................................60 9 第九章 社会影响评价 .....................................................................................................64 9.1 社会影响评价的意义................................................................................................64 9.2 本项目的社会影响评价............................................................................................64 9.3 社会适应性分析 .......................................................................................................66 10 第十章 风险分析 .............................................................................................................69 10.1 项目主要风险