项目评估作为投资运作最重要的决策前提，为投资者评判项目优劣，决策投 资提供关键依据。评估结果是否准确很大程度上也是所选择的项目能否最终运作 成功并获利的前提。同时，项目可行性研究涉及立项决策、市场定位、经营策略、 风险规避、投资计划、收益预测、财务估算等多种理论知识，也是工商管理的一 项综合性强、复杂难度大而又十分重要的基础性工作。本文报告的选题，充分应 用本人研究生阶段所学知识，结合到 A 公司海外投资项目评估的迫切实践需求。 本文共七章，三大部分。第一、二章就项目实践及理论背景进行介绍，并在 文献回顾基础上，充分考虑影响项目目标达成的内外部宏微观环境因素，构建着 眼于项目内、外部吸引力的项目投资可行性评价体系。针对可行性评价体系所涵 盖的评价要素，第三章对所在地宏微观环境进行描述，判断项目选址的合理性； 第四章讨论项目市场定位；第五章基于第二、三章阐述，引入 SWOT 技术量化项 目的宏观环境因素及市场情况，推论出项目运作战略；第六章重点关注项目投资 估算和资本预算、可行性指标测算，并就项目对通货膨胀及销售收入变动带来的 财务风险进行敏感新分析及情景分析。 在对每一项可行性评价要素的讨论中，均考虑到可能风险对项目开展带来的 阻碍，并力图量化风险带来的影响。文章采用定性分析和定量分析相结合方法， 引入的技术包括 SWOT 分析、层次分析法、资本预算技术、敏感性分析等。报告 最后一章明确本文对该项目可行性评价的最终结论，就后续项目实质展开提出建 议，为 A 公司海外项目投资提供了贴近实际的决策数据。 关键词: 可行性分析 评价体系 项目风险 资本预算II Abstract Worked as vital material, feasibility study offers key evident to project investment decision. That weather the result of study is precise still effects on profit level. Meanwhile, feasibility study involves many types of theory such as project installation, marketing location, risk evading, invest plan, revenue forecast, financial estimate. Those theories are the primary ability of comprehensive and complex business management. So, subject selection of this paper full combines knowledge from university and practical desire from A company well together. The whole paper is divided into 3 parts. Chapter 1&2 introduces project background and theory background of feasibility study. At this part, evaluation system of feasibility study is established concerned all inside and outside environment factors which may effect on the achievement of project goal. In chapters3, the basic situation of the project is presented and the environment is analyzed. It judges on reasonability of project location. Chapters 4, mainly discusses market location, market competitors and marketing strategy. In chapter 5, adopted SWOT theory, it quantities effect of environment factor concerned from chapter 3&4. This analysis induces out project’s operation strategy. Chapter 6 deeply focused on estimate of financial index including initial investment, feasibility index such as net present value (NPV), corporate finance, sensitivity analysis and scene analysis considered change of inflation and of market income. Risk analysis impenetrate through all the process of feasibility study and attempts to provide quantities result. The paper adopts principle and methods of SWOT, AHP, corporate finance and sensitivity analysis. Chapter 7 is concerned with an integrated description of the whole project, a conclusion and some suggestions which brought greate reference value. Key words: Feasibility Study, Evaluation system, Project risk, Capital BudgetIII 目 录 摘要.................................................................................................................................I 第一章 导论.................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 问题的提出............................................................................................................ 2 1.2.1 项目概况 ......................................................................................................... 2 1.2.2 本文研究问题 ................................................................................................. 3 1.3 文献回顾................................................................................................................. 3 1.3.1 国外项目可行性评估研究现状 ..................................................................... 3 1.3.2 国内项目可行性评估研究现状 ..................................................................... 5 1.3.3 项目可行性评价的研究展望 ......................................................................... 7 1.4 研究目的、方法和报告结构................................................................................ 8 第二章 项目可行性评价体系........................................................................................ 9 2.1 可行性研究的概念................................................................................................. 9 2.2 项目可行性评估体系的基本原则......................................................................... 9 2.3 项目可行性评估体系的内容............................................................................... 10 2.4 项目可行性评估方法............................................................................................11 2.5 本章小结............................................................................................................... 12 第三章 项目选址分析.................................................................................................. 13 3.1 捷克国别简况....................................................................................................... 13 3.1.1 基本情况 ........................................................................................................ 13 3.1.2 经济简况 ........................................................................................................ 14 3.1.3 交通运输情况 ................................................................................................ 15 3.1.4 人力资源环境 ................................................................................................ 16 3.1.5 政府资助 ........................................................................................................ 18 3.1.6 捷克投资局简介 ............................................................................................ 19 3.2 捷克政治及经济风险........................................................................................... 20 3.3 项目选址捷克分析.............................................................................................. 21 3.4 本章小结............................................................................................................... 22 第四章 项目市场定位.................................................................................................. 24 4.1 世界彩电市场现状.............................................................................................. 24 4.2 欧洲彩电市场现状.............................................................................................. 27 4.2.1 欧洲市场总需求量比较 ................................................................................ 27IV 4.2.2 A 公司在欧洲市场销售情况......................................................................... 29 4.2.3 捷克家电制造业概况 ................................................................................... 29 4.3 市场预测.............................................................................................................. 31 4.3.1 平板电视及 CRT 空间仍较大....................................................................... 31 4.3.2 当地竞争对手分析 ....................................................................................... 32 4.4 产品定位.............................................................................................................. 33 4.5 市场竞争风险评估.............................................................................................. 34 4.5.1 市场份额风险 ................................................................