Global Economics Playbook
First Synchronous Global Recovery Since 2010
M O R G A NS T A N L E YR E S E A R C H
Global
Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd
Chetan Ahya
ECONOMIST
chetan.ahya@morganstanley
+852 2239 7812
Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc
Elga Bartsch
ECONOMIST
elga.bartsch@morganstanley
+44 (0) 20 7425 5434
Global Co-Heads of Economics
Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc
Jonathan Ashworth
ECONOMIST
jonathan.ashworth@morganstanley
+44 (0) 20 7425 1820
Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd
Nora Wassermann
ECONOMIST
nora.wassermann@morganstanley
+852 2848 5614
April6, 2017
For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosures Section, located at the end of this report.
Synchronous recovery in DM and EM
DMs are exiting deleveraging and EMs are moving
out of adjustment to recovery. Global growth should
stay firm and at close to or slightly above the long-
term average over our forecast horizon.
Positive feedback loop to sustain recovery
A recovery in DM is supporting EM exports growth
while reduced disinflationary pressures from EM
should help to reinforce reflation in DM.
Monetary policy to normalise in DM
With core inflation moving towards central bank
goals, we expect DM central banks to reverse
accommodative monetary policies faster than
market expectations, particularly in the US.
Watching potential risks in DM and China
Risks to the global cycle are more likely to emerge
in DM, particularly the US, which is most advanced
in the expansion phase. Within EMs, the key risk is
a sharper slowdown in domestic demand in China.
<-1.2 S.D.-1.2 S.D.<X<-0.2 S.D.-0.2 S.D.<X<0.2 S.D.0.2 S.D.<X<1.2 S.D.1.2. S.D.* Scale inverted
20162017e2018e
Growth (%Y, 3MMA)ExportsIP
Retail
Sales
US1.62.02.0
EA1.71.41.6
Japan1.01.30.9
China6.76.46.2
Inflation (%Y)CPIPPICore
US1.32.52.1
EA0.21.51.5
Japan-0.10.91.7
China2.02.32.2
Rates (% p.a.)
Policy
Rate*10Y BY*
Yield
Curve
US0.6251.3752.375
EA-0.40-0.40-0.40
Japan-0.1-0.10.1
China4.354.354.35
Growth RisksKey factorBearBaseBull
USInvestment cycle, fiscal policy1.02.02.7
EAExternal demand, politics0.81.42.3
JapanWage growth, trade, FX0.91.31.6
ChinaExports, policy tightening6.16.46.7
GDP Forecasts (%Y)
CPI Forecasts (%Y)
Rates F'casts (%, eop)
2017e
The Global Economics Playbook has a simple
traffic light system that allows us to track the latest
dynamics in the global business cycle over time
and across countries for a broad set of indicators.
The traffic light system categorises the latest data
points relative to a ten-year average ranging from
a worrying red to an encouraging green signal.
April 6, 2017 08:10 PM GMT
M O R G A NS T A N L E YR E S E A R C HGlobal Economics Playbook
April 2017
Contents Page
In our
Global Economics Playbook
we provide a comprehensive overview of macro indicators across the global economy and its
major regions. We hope you find this research product useful and would be grateful for any feedback you might have.
Please use the links below to access the various sections.
1)Key Focus: Synchronous Recovery in DM and EM (pages 4-6)
2)New Macro Debates Since the November Outlook (page 7)
3)Global Growth Forecasts (page 10)
4)MS Risk Radar: Pivots to Watch on Growth (pages 13-14)
5)Economic Activity (pages 15-20)
6)Global Trade (pages 21-26)
7)Global Consumer (pages 27-35)
8)Investment Spending (pages 36-42)
9)Inflation Trends (pages 43-49)
10) Monetary Policy (pages 50-64)
11) Fiscal Policy (pages 65-71)
12) Global Debt Dynamics (page 72)
M O R G A NS T A N L E YR E S E A R C HGlobal Economics Playbook
April 2017
Tracking Recent Growth Developments: Country Highlights
of a jump in inflation in January and delayed tax refunds. Fixed investment appears to have accelerated to near its best
gain in the past five years, and with an expected pick-up in consumer spending we see 2Q on pace for a rebound to 3%+
growth, reversing 1Q softness.
and indicating upside risks to our near-term forecast. From a supply-side perspective, both manufacturing and services
are outperforming, while from an expenditure side it is consumer spending and exports outperforming.
pace exceeding its potential growth rate. Although growth has so far been driven mainly by external demand, we expect
the contribution from domestic demand to start recovering gradually as capex and consumer spending recover moderately
and as the effects of the second supplementary budget for F3/17 show up gradually in public investment.
demand and resilient infrastructure investment. The March official manufacturing PMI confirms ongoing cyclical strength.
We see upside risks to near-term growth amid the external demand recovery, and 1Q real growth is tracking at 6.8-6.9%Y
(nominal tracking ~11%), which provides room for policy-makers to step up the pace of counter-cyclical tightening.
economic activity is taking longer than expected to rebound, creating downside risks to our near-term growth forecast.
Households and corporates are in a deleveraging process and, once this is over, growth should gain traction.
strength in external demand, with export growth rising to the highest level in 64 months. On the capex side, public capex
and FDI flows remain robust while private capex is weak. We expect growth to resume its recovery path from 2Q17.
high-frequency data point to improving business sentiment and a better export performance on the back of the oil price
recovery. We see moderate upside risks to our 1.2%Y 2017 GDP forecast.
M O R G A NS T A N L E YR E S E A R C HGlobal Economics Playbook
April 2017
DM and EM Imports Rise in Sync DM Growth to Remain Above Trend, EM Accelerating
Key Focus: Synchronous Recovery in DM and EM
DM Output Gap Closing Faster on Expansionary Policies
Sources: National Country Sources,CEIC, CPB, IMF, Markit, Morgan Stanley Research
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
200620082010201220142016
G3EM
Import Volume Growth, %Y 3MMA
-4
-3
-2
-11357919
9091929394959697989900010203040506070809
2020202020202020E
20E
DM
EM
EMXC
Real GDP Growth, %Y
Manufacturing PMI Relatively Strong in DM and EM
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17
Manufacturing PMIs
GlobalEMDM
-7
-5
-3
-1391929394959697989900010203040506070809
2020202020202020E
20E
G4
EMXC
Global ex China
PPP-Weighted, normalized output gaps*
2017 and 2018 are MS and OECD forecasts. India calculations based on old GDP series.
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