Deutsche Bank
Markets Research
Rating
Buy
Asia
India
Energy
Oil & Gas
Company
Reliance Industries
Date
17 January 2018
Forecast Change
Value drivers intact, reiterating Buy
Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker
RELI.BO RIL IN BSE RELI
Forecasts And Ratios
Year End Mar 31 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E
Sales (INRm) 2,739,990.0 3,053,820.0 3,852,201.6 4,570,799.0 4,786,549.0
EBITDA (INRm) 417,040.0 461,940.0 682,900.3 914,040.7 987,896.2
DB Net Profit (INR) 252,870.0 299,010.0 348,608.2 430,136.6 457,482.7
DB EPS FD(INR) 39.05 46.14 53.79 66.37 70.59
OLD DB EPS FD(INR) 39.05 46.14 53.57 63.76 67.09
% Change 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 4.1% 5.2%
DB EPS growth (%) 7.2 18.2 16.6 23.4 6.4
PER (x) 11.9 11.3 17.2 13.9 13.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.3 11.5 12.8 9.3 8.2
Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data 1
DB EPS is fully diluted and excludes non-recurring items 2
Multiples and yields calculations use average historical prices for past years and spot prices for current and future years, except P/B which uses the year end close
Revised target price implies 24% upside potential
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should
be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should
consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST
CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017.
Price at 15 Jan 2018 (INR) 946.00
Price target - 12mth (INR) 1,150.00
52-week range (INR) 953.05 - 504.28
Bombay Stock Exchange
(BSE 30)
34,592
Harshad Katkar
Research Analyst
(+91) 22 7180-4029
harshad.katkar@db
Srinivas Rao, CFA
Research Analyst
(+65 )6423 4114
srini.rao@db
Key changes
TP 1,040.00 to
1,150.00
Source: Deutsche Bank
Price/price relative
300
450
600
750
900
1050
1/167/161/177/17
Reliance Industries
Bombay Stock Exchang (Rebased)
Performance (%) 1m 3m 12m
Absolute 0.3 5.6 72.8
Bombay Stock Exchange
(BSE 30)
4.1 6.8 27.7
Source: Deutsche Bank
Raising TP by 11% to INR 1,150
We have raised FY19/20e earnings by 4-5%
and our TP by 11% to INR 1,150 as we
align petrochem spread assumptions to DB
regional forecasts, benchmark Reliance
Retailˉs valuation to peers and factor in a
higher revenue market-share for RJIO. We
value RIL on SOTP, with refining and
petrochem on 7.5x Marˉ19 EV/EBITDA,
Retail on EV/sales, and E&P and telecom on
DCF. Risks are 1) lower downstream
margins; and 2) an unsuccessful telecom
launch (please see page 20 for details).
Reliance Industriesˉ (RIL) stock is up 39% YTD FY18, outperf
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