摘 要
改革开放 30 多年以来，外商直接投资（FDI）是我国工业经济发展的一个重
要推动力。在我国工业化进程中，FDI 年度流入量已连续 21 年稳居发展中国家第
一位，但随之带来的碳排放问题也日益凸显。 为了有效地控制和减少工业碳排放
量，实现减排目标，本文选取 2003-2011 年我国省域面板数据，利用 geoda、arcgis
和 matlab 等相关软件，首先对我国的工业碳排放量现状和时空特征进行了分析，
然后进行了 Moran’s I 检验、散点图分析和时空跃迁测度，接着利用空间杜宾模型
（SDM）对 FDI 与工业碳排放量之间的关系进行了实证研究；最后，根据实证结
果提出了针对性的政策建议

对我国工业碳排放量现状和时空特征分析显示：我国绝大多数省域工业碳排
放在逐年增加而工业碳强度则反之，工业碳排放呈“东高西低”空间格局，而工
业碳强度呈“西高东低，北高南低”地理分布

Moran’s I 检验及散点图分析结果表明：我国省域工业碳排放、碳强度存在明
显的空间依赖性、空间差异性和空间溢出效应，表现出一定的空间集聚特征；时
空跃迁测度法进一步揭示：我国工业碳排放和碳强度存在空间路径锁定效应，并
且在 2003-2011 年期间，这种空间依赖性基本保持稳定，只有少许省区发生跃迁

空间杜宾计量模型就 FDI 对工业碳排放及强度的影响的实证结果表明：FDI
通过三种效应（规模、结构和技术效应）直接和间接影响工业碳排放及强度，在
作用过程中存在空间交互效应

本文针对实证结果提出了相应的政策建议：优化引资结构，营造 FDI 技术溢
出环境，夯实环境规制建设，构建区域合作机制

关键词：工业碳排放；FDI；空间交互效应；空间杜宾模型（SDM）
III
Abstract
For more than 30 years of reform and opening-up, the foreign direct investment
(FDI) is the important impetus to industrial economic development of our country. In
the process of industrialization in our country, FDI annual inflows have been ranked
first in the developing world for 21 consecutive years, but the resulting carbon
emissions are growing.In order to effectively control and reduce industrial sector's
carbon emission, to achieve emission reduction targets, this dissertation takes an
empirical analysis based on panel data of 30 provinces from 2003 to 2011,using geoda,
arcgis and matlab software.First of all, it makes analysis on the present situation of
our country's industrial carbon emissions and the space-time characteristics.Then ,it
takes carries on its Moran's I test, its scatter diagram analysis and space -time
transition measures.Further, in virtue of the spatial Durbin model (SDM)，it conducts
an empirical analysis on the relation between FDI and industrial carbon emissions .At
last, according to the empirical results, it puts forward the corresponding policy
recommendations.
Current situation of industrial carbon emissions in China and the characteristi cs
of time-space analysis show that: the vast majority of provincial industrial carbon
emissions in China increases year by year and the intensity of it is on the contrary; the
spatial distribution of provincial industrial carbon emissions demonstrate thathigh
in the east and low in the westand the intensity of carbon emissions regional
distribution takes on an imbalanced spatial pattern ， high- west -low- east and
high-north-low-south，in China
Moran's I inspection and scatter diagram analysis results show that the provincial
industrial carbon emissions and carbon intensity in China have obvious spatial
dependence, spatial heterogeneity and spatial spillover effect , thus presenting certain
spatial agglomeration characteristic.Space-time transition measure method further
reveals that there exists space path lock-in effect of China's industrial carbon
emissions and carbon intensity, and during the period of 2003-2011, this spatial
dependence is basically stable, with only a few provinces in transition.
The spatial Durbin model (SDM) ,which is used to analyze influence of FDI on
industrial sector's carbon emission , of the empirical results show that FDI through
three kinds of effects (scale, structure and technology effect) directly and indirectly
impacts industrial carbon emissions and carbon intensity and there exists space
interaction effect in the process of this impact.
This paper based on the empirical results puts forward the corresponding policy
recommendations: optimizing the investment structure,creating an environment of
technology spillover of FDI, strengthening environmental regu lation construction and
building regional cooperation mechanisms.
Key Words：Industrial carbon emissions；FDI；Spatial interaction effect；Spatial
Durbin model (SDM)