III
摘 要
改革开放以来，中国依赖丰富而廉价的劳动力资源在国际市场上取得竞争优
势，成为“制造业大国”。然而，长期依赖于廉价劳动力不仅影响到劳动生产率的
提高，也降低了对科技研发和技术创新的激励作用，导致了对技术和资本要素投
入的减少，技术及资本密集型产业发展的相对落后，无法实现从“制造业大国”
向“制造业强国”的转变。伴随着我国人口结构转型，低成本劳动力的比较优势
迅速消退，工资水平上升对我国制造业产业造成了巨大冲击。劳动力成本变动如
何影响制造业产业的发展？劳动力成本上升会导致我国制造业产业受到多大的冲
击？我国制造业产业能否在劳动力成本上升的背景下保持竞争优势，顺利实现产
业结构转型？本文从理论和实证两个方面对这些问题进行了探讨

本文第一部分首先对我国制造业的劳动力成本变动情况进行了概括，认为我
国劳动力成本上升将是长期的必然趋势。文章的第二部分则对劳动力成本影响产
业结构的途径进行了理论分析，从低水平工资对产业结构的固化作用，到工资水
平提高的动力激励、消费积累和内生推动三方面效应分析了劳动力成本对产业结
构升级的影响，并将劳动力成本上升对产业结构的影响概括为：需求拉动机制、
成本推动机制和关联机制三个影响机制。为了更好的体现劳动要素对产业结构的
影响，本文在第三部分的实证分析中，按照要素密集度将制造业产业划分为劳动
力密集型、资本密集型和技术密集型三大类产业，并利用 2003-2012 年制造业分
欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司面板数据对工资水平上涨对制造业产业结构的影响进行实证分析。实证结果
表明，劳动力成本的上升对三大类产业产生不同的冲击，劳动力成本上升会导致
劳动力密集型产业比重的下降，资本密集型产业比重相对提升，而技术密集型产
业则无显著变化。而从结构偏离度的结果来看，工资水平的上升减少了劳动力密
集型产业存在的隐性失业，人均产出得到明显提升，资本密集型和技术密集型产
业结构也得到不同程度优化。最后，在总结全文结论的基础上，提出在劳动力成
本上升的背景下转变经济增长方式，推进制造业结构转型升级的对策建议

关键词：劳动力成本；工资水平；制造业；产业结构硕士学位论文
Abstract
Because of abundant and cheap labor resources，China has gained a competitive
advantage in the international market. However, as a comparative advantage of China's
manufacturing industry, low-cost labor also exists a negative impact. Long-term
dependence on cheap labor costs has impeded technological progress and industrial
upgrading, which led to ignorance of technology and capital-intensive industry.In
recent years, the comparative advantage of low-cost labor in the manufacturing sector
is gradually subsided, replaced by a rise in wages. It’s important to study how labor
costs changes affect the development and upgrading of the manufacturing industry.
Firstly, this thesis analysis why and how labor costs rising will come to the
inevitable long-term trend. Secondly, the way the labor cost impact of the industrial
structure are analyzed in detail from the curing effect of low wages on the industrial
structure, improving the level of motivation to wage incentives, to promote the
consumption of accumulation. The impact on industry structure is summarized as:
demand-pull mechanism, cost-push mechanism and the associated mechanisms of the
three affected system. In order to better reflect the impact of the labor factor of the
industrial structure, manufacturing industries are divided into labor-intensive
manufacturing industries, capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries
according to factor intensity. this thesis use 2003-2012 panel data to study the impact
of rising manufacturing industry structure of wages for empirical analysis. The
empirical results show that the rise in labor costs for the three categories of industries
have different impact, rising labor costs would lead to a decline in the proportion of
labor-intensive industries, to enhance the relative proportion of capital-intensive
industries, while the technology-intensive industries showed no significant change.
The structure of the degree of deviation from the results point of view, rising wages
reduced the labor -intensive industries exist hidden unemployment, per capita output
has improved significantly, capital and technology-intensive industrial structure has
also been optimized to varying degrees . Finally, in the summary of the conclusions
based on the proposed transformation of economic growth in the context of rising labor
costs, this thesis make recommendations to upgrade manufacturing structure and
improve the international competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry.
Keywords: labor costs；wage；manufacturing；industrial structure