II
服装连锁零售业通过区域物流中心提高售罄率策略研究
摘 要
本文先从当前国内服装连锁零售业现状分析入手，一方面市场上库存很高；另
一方面断码断货的情况却非常普遍。然后深入分析这看似矛盾现状背后的原因——
不能很好地匹配供给和需求：代理商门店的需求预测不够准确，因而不能合理的进
行铺货；此外，即便发现或者预见到某一门店某款产品的某个尺码可能发生缺货，
但由于补货的操作流程过于繁杂，补货周期过长，不能及时避免缺货损失；另外，
现有的物流网络相对分散、独立，不同区域之间的库存难以互相调拨，导致产生的
缺货损失进一步加剧。

因此，针对上述造成销售损失的原因，本文依据风险分担策略，提出设立区域
物流中心，取代分散独立的城市仓库。同时以区域物流中心快速补货的方式取代门
店间的调拨，提高固定数量库存的灵活性，从物流供应链的角度改善门店售罄率（售
罄率=销售/库存）。

具体定义销售损失，建立缺货损失模型，并量化分析在不同情境下的缺货损失
弥补，对比得出区域物流中心通过风险分担(Risk pooling)，集中共享库存而改善
门店的断货状况，进而改善门店销售，提高整个供应链的运作效率。同时通过区域
物流中心的规模效益，可以减少总的运营成本。

但由于服装连锁零售业的特殊性：产品需求的季节性明显、生命周期短、每季
都是新产品，受节假日、促销活动影响严重。因此在建立模型的过程中，在有限数
据的基础上，做了很多假设，对现实情况的反映难免存在偏差。此外由于区域物流
中心运营时间尚短，本文没有就区域物流中心的配送路线优化进行进一步研究。

关键词： 售罄率，连锁零售，集中仓储III
THE RESEARCH OF IMPROVING FASHION
CHAINED RETAIL ENTERPRISE SELL-THROUGH
BY CENTROLISED DISTRIBUTION CENTER
ABSTRACT
This thesis analyzed the features of fashion chained retail industry and complexity of
its supply chain management. On one hand, there is too much inventory in the market; on
the other hand, here are also a lot of stock-out situations, according to which the root
cause analysis is made that: inaccurate demand forecast; inappropriate replenishment; the
dispersive and separate network.
So this thesis offered a regional distribution center, the risk pooling strategy, to share
inventory cross cities, adopt fast replenishment instead of store transfer so as to improve
door sell-through.
By defining and modeling the lost sales, this thesis evaluate lost sales due to
inappropriate loading-in; estimating lost sales avoidance by store inventory surplus and
warehouse inventory in different scenarios. And the overall operation cost could be
reduced through the scale effect of regional distribution center.
But due to the particularity of the fashion industry: seasonality, short life cycle,
totally new product in each season, and promotion activity affected, this thesis made some
assumptions based on limited data, which might be not so objective.
KEY WORDS: sell through, chain retail, regional distribution center