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摘要
在经济全球化不断发展、社会分工越来越精细的今天，物流产业正在全球范
围内迅速的发展和扩大起来。物流产业是经济社会化发展的产物，被认为是经济
发展的“加速器”，作为一种全新的复合型产业，物流产业在我国的国民经济中
扮演着越来越重要的角色，也逐渐成为一个地区或一个城市经济实力、参与国际
竞争的标准之一。

长沙市作为湖南省省会城市，京广铁路、京港高速、湘黔铁路等贯穿南北，
是我国中南部承东启西、连南接北的重要的区域经济中心和交通枢纽，随着武广
高铁、湘渝高速等相继开通，长沙市的物流战略位置也变得越来越重要起来。长
沙市为积极适应市场发展需要，提出建设“五大物流园和十大物流中心”的物流
发展骨架，努力提升长沙市的物流水平，把物流产业作为优化区域经济产业结构，
全面发展经济的重要产业。

文章分析了长沙市经济发展和物流产业发展的现状。综合时间序列的平稳性
检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验等计量方法与模型，实证研究证实了长沙
市物流产业与区域经济之间具有长期均衡（稳定）关系，虽然格兰杰因果关系检
验显示区域物流产业和区域经济存在双向因果关系，但区域物流产业对区域经济
的正向作用显著性较弱。

最后，基于分析结果提出推动长沙市物流产业发展的策略建议，从而为更好
地实现长沙市构建“五园十中心”的提案，提高物流产业服务水平，优化产业结
构，促进区域经济的增长，实现中南部崛起战略提供支撑。

关键词：物流产业 区域经济 协整检验 格兰杰因果关系检验ABSTRACT
With the constant development of economic globalization and more sophisticated
of social division nowadays, the logistics industry, as an emerging industry, is getting
rapid development and expansion worldwide. The logistics industry is a product of
socialized developing economy, and it plays an increasingly important role in the
development of national economy as a new compound industry and gradually becomes
one of the standards measuring the economic power and international competence of a
region or a city.
Changsha city, as the capital city of Hunan province, is a regional economic
center and traffic hub in Central South. With the opening of Xiang-Yu Expressway
and Wuhan-Guangzhou express railway, Changsha logistics’ strategic location is also
becoming increasingly important. Changsha actively adapts to market needs,
proposing to build logistics development framework of five logistics parks and ten
logistics centres, striving to enhance the level of logistics in Changsha city, and
treats logistics industry as an important industry to optimize industrial structure of
regional economy and comprehensively develop economic.
This paper analyzes the current situation of economic development and logistics
industry development in Changsha city, integrating such measuring methods and
models as time-series stability tests, cointegration tests and Granger causality tests.
The empirical study shows a long-term balance between the logistics industry and
regional economy in Changsha exists, logistics industry’s positive significance to
regional economy is a little bit weak though Granger causality test shows there is
two-way causal relationship between regional logistics and regional economy.
Finally, this paper proposes strategic suggestion to promoting the development
of logistics industry and regional economy development in Changsha city based on
the analysis results, fulfilling the dream of Changsha city’s five parks ten centers,
improve the service level of logistics industry, optimize the industrial structure,
provide strategic support to realize the rise of Central South area.
Keywords: Logistics industry; Regional economy; Cointegration test; Granger
causality