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摘 要
当前，我国人均 GDP 已超过 3000 美元，这是举世公认的旅游业爆发性增长
阶段。随着居民收入不断增加，居民消费将由以实物为主向实物与服务消费并重
转变，旅游业将成为消费升级的主要受益欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司。由于旅游产业的发展已经成为制
约当地经济的重要因素，因此研究旅游产业的经济增长效应受到实业界和学术界
的高度重视，成为一个亟待解决的重大现实课题。但是目前国内对此领域的涉猎
不多，主要以定性研究为主，针对某一具体区域构建经济增长效应模型，并采用
实证研究方法进行检验的论文并不多见，本文以此为切入点展开对永州市旅游产
业经济增长效应的关键影响因素、模型构建以及模型实证研究。

本文首先对旅游产业经济增长效应研究的背景和意义进行了概述，并简要总
结了国内外学者在旅游产业经济增长效应以及经济增长效应模型构建两个方面的
学术研究成果和进展。本文继续对旅游产业的相关概念以及经济增长效应模型的
相关理论基础进行了分析。继而对永州市旅游产业目前的发展概况、旅游产业经
济增长趋势以及永州市旅游产业经济增长的制约因素进行了简要概述。

本文主体研究部分首先应用改进的灰色关联分析方法对永州市旅游产业经济
增长效应的关键影响因素进行了分析。在得出各影响因素的灰色关联度数值基础
上，研究应用多元回归分析方法对永州市旅游产业经济增长模型进行了构建。在
利用 Eviews 软件进行了两次 OLS 回归分析之后，拟合出了永州市旅游产业经济
增长效应模型。研究继而应用经济增长效应模型对永州市 11 个县区 2012 年数据
进行了实证分析。

研究最后针对第三章中对永州市旅游产业经济增长效应制约因素的分析结
果，并结合改进灰色关联分析结果、回归分析结果以及模型实证结果对永州市旅
游产业提出了一些对策和建议。

本文研究所得出的旅游市旅游产业经济增长效应的关键影响因素，经济增长
效应模型以及实证分析结果可以为后续研究人员提供方法和理论借鉴。本文所提
出的对策和建议可以供永州市相关部门做决策参考。

关键词：旅游产业；经济增长效应模型；改进灰色关联分析；回归分析ABSTRACT
At present, the average GDP of the People's China has more than 3000 U.S.
dollars,it has become a recognized tourism explosive growth phase.Consumer
spending will change into both physical objects and service,and tourism will become
the main beneficiaries industry because of the consumer increaseing.Since the
development of the tourism industry has become an important factor of the local
economy, the business community and the academic attaches great importance to
studying of the economic effects of tourism industry,and this research became a major
practical issue solved.However,current research is not much in China of this
area,domestic research based mainly on qualitative research, constructioning of
evaluation index system for a specific area and using empirical methods to test the
thesis is rare, as a basis for the evaluating research of the economic effects of
Yongzhou tourism industry.
First, the article overview on the background and significance of the study in
economic effects of the tourism industry, then giving a brief summary of the results
and progress of academic research scholars and the economic effects in the tourism
industry. This paper continues to analyze the related concepts of tourism industry and
theoretical evaluation basis of economic effects. Then according to the tourism output,
4 indexes have been chosen to construct the evaluation system: the contribution of
employment, the business scale, the basic motion of development and the level of
economy and index data of 11 counties of Yongzhou City have been used as samples
of this empirical study.
This study applies improved gray relational analysis method to analyze the
economic growth effects of Yongzhou tourism industry firstly. On the basis of
obtaining each factor from gray relational method, this study continues to apply
multiple regression analysing Yongzhou tourism industry and then the growth model
was constructed. Hereafter, empirical analysis is applied to study economic growth
effect mode by using the datas from 11 counties of Yongzhou in 2012.
Lastly, the paper puts forward the suggestions to improve the economic
performance level of tourism in Yongzhou from three perspectives, that is, expanding
the economic scale of Yongzhou tourism, strengthening the cooperation among all
districts and counties, and improving the management level of Yongzhou tourism.
Keyword: Tourism; Effects Model of Economic Growth; Gray Relational
Analysis; Multiple Regression Analysis