GROUNDSWELL
ACTING ON INTERNAL CLIMATE MIGRATION
PART II
Viviane Clement, Kanta Kumari Rigaud, Alex de Sherbinin,
Bryan Jones, Susana Adamo, Jacob Schewe,
Nian Sadiq, and Elham Shabahat(c) 2021 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
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Please cite the work as follows: Clement, Viviane, Kanta Kumari Rigaud, Alex de
Sherbinin, Bryan Jones, Susana Adamo, Jacob Schewe, Nian Sadiq, and Elham
Shabahat. 2021. Groundswell Part 2: Acting on Internal Climate Migration. Washington,
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ACTING ON INTERNAL CLIMATE MIGRATION
PART IITable of Contents
Glossary viii
Abbreviations xii
Acknowledgements xiii
Foreword xvii
Chapter 1. An Evolving Global Landscape for Climate Change as a Driver of Migration 1
1.1 Climate Change, Mobility, and Development: a Growing Nexus 1
1.2 Compounding Shocks and the Increasing Complexity of Mobility 3
1.3 A Growing Integration of Mobility and Climate Change in Policy Frameworks 6
1.4 The Groundswell Approach: Understanding Climate Migration to Support Better
Development Outcomes 12
1.5 Structure of the report 14
Chapter 2. Climate Migration Projections: Subregions of Focus and the Global Picture 23
2.1 Climate Migration Projections for North Africa 24
2.2 Climate Migration Projections for the Lower Mekong 42
2.3 Climate Migration Projections for Central Asia 59
2.4 Projected Climate Migration for the Regions of Focus 78
2.5 Projected Climate Migration to 2050 Across Six Regions 80
Chapter 3. Country Perspectives: Climate Migration in Morocco, Vietnam, and the Kyrgyz Republic 95
3.1 Climate Migration Projections for Morocco 97
3.2 Climate Migration Projections for Vietnam 116
3.3 Climate Migration Projections for the Kyrgyz Republic 140
Chapter 4. Environmental and Climate-Related Mobility in Mashreq Countries 175
4.1 Subregional Context 176
4.2 Climate Change Impacts 186
4.3 Mobility Drivers and Patterns in Mashreq Countries 199
4.4 The Nexus of Climate Change, Fragility, and Mobility 205
Chapter 5. Environmental and Climate-Related Mobility in Small Island Developing States 217
5.1 Subregional Context 218
5.2 Climate Change Impacts in SIDS 225
5.3 Mobility Dynamics in SIDS 230
Appendix A. Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) Water and Crop
Model Results 251
A.1 ISIMIP Water and Crop Model Results for North Africa 252
A.2 ISIMIP Water and Crop Model Results for the Lower Mekong 257
A.3 ISIMIP Water and Crop Model Results for Central Asia 262
A.4 ISIMIP Water and Crop Model Results for Morocco 267
A.5 ISIMIP Water and Crop Model Results for Vietnam 272
A.6 ISIMIP Water and Crop Model Results for the Kyrgyz Republic 277
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