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2022年 6月 29日
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2022年 6月 29日

新农保的养老保障水平对农村居民消费的影响及区域差异研究
摘要
新型农村养老保险在2009年开始试点，在分散风险和减少经济损失等方面
起到了重要的作用，养老保险在社会保险体系中备受关注，是协调人民与社会环
境的关系，同时保障经济、社会持续发展的重要“缓震器”。减轻农村居民的生
活负担、保障人民安居乐业、农村居民具有安全感和幸福感是我们目前的首要任
务。
本文基于消费理论、预防性储蓄理论、生命周期理论、区域经济发展等理论，
从东、中、西部三个地区的角度，分别建立个体固定效应模型，分析新农保的养
老保障水平对农村居民消费的作用途径。第一章是绪论，交代时代背景和本文的
意义，学习与借鉴国内外学者文献的独到之处，根据已有的科学进展和研究成果，
进一步凝练本文的文章框架和行文思路。第二章对养老保障水平和农村居民消费
水平情况进行说明，并分析了相关理论。第三章结合新农保政策的相关规定，多
维度地构建新农保的养老保障水平影响农村居民消费的直接和间接作用模型。第
四章基于前文的深度理解和分析，选取 2013-2020年全国 31个省份的实际数据，
将全部省份合理的划分为东、中、西部三个地区，建立理论分析框架和个体固定
效应模型，系统完善养老保障水平对农村居民消费的传播途径。第五章根据实证
数据总结得出结论提出具有新意、至关重要的指导性意见。
研究结果表明，第一，新型农村养老保险养老保障水平是推动农村居民消费
的潜在动力；从居民收入再分配和预防性储蓄两个角度分别作用于居民消费；第
二，养老保障水平对居民消费的影响具有差异性，东部地区的效应更显著；因此，
养老保障水平越健全，越能兜住民生底线、实现居民收入再分配和代内公平，以
及更好的降低居民消费预防性储蓄。
关键词：新农保；养老保障水平；农村居民消费水平；区域差异
1

新农保的养老保障水平对农村居民消费的影响及区域差异研究
ABSTRACT
The new rural old-age insurance was piloted in 2009, playing an important role
in dispersing risks and reducing economic losses. The old-age insurance has attracted
much attention in the social insurance system. It is an important "buffer" to coordinate
the relationship between the people and the social environment, and to ensure the
sustainable development of the economy and society. Reducing the living burden of
rural residents, ensuring that people live and work in peace and contentment, and that
rural residents have a sense of security and happiness are our top priorities.
Based on the theories of consumption theory, preventive savings theory, life
cycle theory and regional economic development, this paper establishes individual
fixed effect models from the perspective of the East, the middle and the west, and
analyzes the role of the old-age security level of the new rural insurance on the
consumption of rural residents. The first chapter is the introduction, explaining the
background of the times and the significance of this article, learning from the unique
literature of domestic and foreign scholars, and further refining the article framework
and writing ideas according to the existing scientific progress and research results.
The second chapter explains the level of old-age security and the consumption level
of rural residents, and analyzes the relevant theories. The third chapter combines the
relevant provisions of the new rural insurance policy to build a multi-dimensional
model of the direct and indirect effects of the old-age security level of the new rural
insurance on the consumption of rural residents. Based on the in-depth understanding
and analysis of the previous article, the fourth chapter selects the actual data of 31
provinces in China from 2013 to 2020, reasonably divides all provinces into three
regions: the East, the middle and the west, establishes a theoretical analysis
framework and an individual fixed effect model, and systematically improves the
transmission channels of old-age security level to rural residents' consumption. The
fifth chapter draws a conclusion based on the empirical data and puts forward some
new and crucial guiding opinions.
The results show that, first, the level of old-age security of the new rural old-age
insurance is the potential driving force to promote the consumption of rural residents;
From the perspective of income redistribution and Preventive Savings, it acts on
Residents' consumption respectively; Second, the level of old-age security has a
different impact on Residents' consumption, especially in the eastern region;
Therefore, the more sound the level of old-age security is, the more it can grasp the
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