摘要
当前外部宏观环境的不确定性正在向常态化发展，全球经济的复苏进程在匍
匐中前行，新冠疫情出现导致经济不确定性显著上升。在此情形下，债券市场不
断扩展，市场的整体风险也逐渐扩大，我国企业发生债券违约事件的压力不断加
大。基于以上研究背景，本文选取新华联控股有限公司作为民营企业陷入债券违
约的典型案例。
本文采用文献研究法、实证研究法和案例分析法进行研究，首先在已有文献
的基础上梳理出经济不确定性对企业经济行为的重要影响有三种：随着经济不确
定性上升，相比于国有企业，民营企业经营情况更加恶化、投资策略失败、融资
更加困难；再根据文献归纳违约的影响因素、违约风险防范措施以及信用风险评
估方法。其次，以 Z-score模型的财务指标为基础并引入中国经济政策不确定性
指数，建立违约事件发生概率的 Logistic模型。
在分析新华联债券违约案例时，先概括新华联发展历程并回顾其违约过程。
再具体讨论和分析新华联控股违约的三种传导机制：1.随着经济不确定性上升，
周期性欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司景气下行，进而影响企业盈利能力，企业经营性现金流流入不足，违
约风险上升；2.分析企业在15-19年期间的投资行为，每年的投资收益与经济不
确定性密切相关，企业总体投资净收益亏损，投资失败，违约风险上升；3.融资
环境随经济不确定性显著而收紧，分别从债券发行、银行贷款和股权质押分析新
华联控股的融资渠道全面收紧，再融资比较困难，违约风险上升。
当现金流量表的投资活动现金流净额和筹资活动现金流净额长期处于净流
出的状态，一旦企业经营活动不如预期，企业面临流动性危机，债券违约风险上
升。新冠疫情爆发使得新华联控股2020年第一季度经营状况表现不如预期，该
季度经营性活动现金流量净额为-3087.92万元，还需要偿还前期巨额债务，且
再融资受挫，最终导致债券违约。
针对本文案例分析，创新性地指出经济不确定性对对债券违约影响的三种机
制，将宏观环境变动与微观主体联系起来，对企业进行公司治理，保持企业长期
健康发展以及债券市场的稳定具有非常重要的现实意义。基于对新华联控股债券
I

违约的传导机制，可以发现经济不确定性是企业债务违约的一把助推器，真正要
防范违约风险要从企业自身来进行。因此本文从企业风险管理水平、公司战略决
策、企业财务管理水平三方面对民营企业如何防范债券违约风险提出对策。第一，
风险管理从源头开始进行，层层审核，实时预警；第二，规范业务管理，进行理
性投资，避免盲目扩张；第三，健全财务预警系统，关注企业融资渠道，合理调
整资本结构。
关键词：经济不确定性债券违约 Logistic 模型传导机制
II

Abstract
At present, the uncertainty of macro-environment is becoming regular and the
global economy is in a slowly recovery. However, COVID-19 has led to economic
uncertainty dramatically rising. Under this circumstance, China's corporate bond
default events have increased greatly with the constantly broadening bond market and
rising market risks. Based on the above research background, this paper selects
Xinhualian Holding Co. Ltd. as a typical case of private enterprises defaulted on their
bonds.
This paper adopts literature research method, empirical research method and case
analysis method to conduct research. Firstly, on the basis of the existing literature, it
sorts out the three important effects of economic uncertainty on the economic
behavior of enterprises. Compared with the state-owned enterprises, private
enterprises operating condition deteriorated, lower investment and financing more
difficult when economic uncertainty rises. Secondly, according to the literature
induces the influence factors of default and default risk prevention measures. Based
on the financial indicators of Z-score model and the introduction of China's economic
policy uncertainty index, the Logistic model of the occurrence probability of default
events is established.
In the analysis of the bond default case of Xinhualian, the paper summarizes the
development of New Hualian and reviews its default process. Then the paper
specifically discusses and analyzes the three transmission mechanisms of the default
of Xinhualian Holding Co. Ltd. 1. With the rise of economic uncertainty, cyclical
industries are experiencing a downturn, which further affects the profitability of
enterprises and leads to insufficient inflow of operational cash flow, so the risk of
default rises. 2. Analyzing the financialized investment behavior of Xinhualian during
the period of 15-19 years, the annual investment income is closely related to
economic uncertainty, and the net investment income of the enterprise has a loss.
III
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