摘要
自政策性农业保险制度确立以来，农业保险业务在我国发展迅速，市场规模持续增
长，并在保障国家粮食安全，稳定和提升农民收入，助力乡村振兴等方面发挥了重要作
用。但在看到农业保险发展取得巨大成就的同时，也应认识到我国农业保险市场仍存在
需求、供给不足，供需不匹配的市场失衡问题。针对这些问题，本文研究分析了当前我
国农业保险市场的供求状况，影响农业保险的需求和供给的因素，并针对研究得出的结
论提出了当前农业保险市场存在问题的解决措施。
首先，本文基于现有的研究、数据等欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司对农业保险的发展状况作了详细的剖析，
并从中发现了当前我国农业保险市场发展存在的问题。接着，本文总结并评述了本领域
相关研究，并明确了本文的研究思路。然后，本文利用固定效应模型对影响农业保险需
求的影响因素进行了分析；运用 DEA-Tobit模型对保险公司的农业保险经营效率、人保
财险在其市场份额较高省份的农业保险经营效率进行了测算，并以农业保险经营效率作
为衡量农业保险供给意愿的指标，研究了影响农业保险供给的因素；最后，在明确对农
业保险的供给和需求有显著影响的因素之后，本研究此为基础，将对农险供求有显著影
响的变量加入农业保险的均衡分析中，运用非均衡计量模型计算得到了农业保险市场的
供需方程和交易量方程，并通过供需方程测算对比了农业保险的需求量和供给量的差异，
并进一步的计算了农业保险市场的非均衡程度。
最终，本文得出了我国部分省份的农业保险市场非均衡程度严重，且处于需求大于
供给的状态的结论。并且农业保险的保障水平、农业经营主体实际负担的农险价格、地
区的机械化水平和当地的财政支持水平都对农业保险的需求存在显著影响；农险的赔付
率、农险的竞争程度、地区的收入水平、风险水平以及保险公司的资本投入量、人员投
入量对保险公司的农业保险业务经营效率有着显著影响；农业保险的保费补贴比例以及
地区的农村居民收入结构对农业保险的需求意愿和供给意愿都有显著影响。
基于研究得到的结论，本文在最后提出了相关的建议和措施来降低农业保险市场的
非均衡程度，提升保险公司的农业保险经营效率和供给意愿，进一步的增加农业保险需
求。
关键词：农业保险市场；需求影响因素；供给影响因素；市场均衡分析
I

ABSTRACT
Since the establishment of policy-based agricultural insurance system, agricultural
insurance business has developed rapidly in China, and the market scale has continued to grow.
It has played an important role in ensuring the national food security, stabilizing and improving
farmers' income and helping the Rural Revitalization. But when we see the great achievements
in the development of agricultural insurance, we should also realize that there are still some
problems in the market of agricultural insurance in China, such as the lack of demand, supply
and demand mismatch. In view of these problems, this paper analyzes the supply and demand
of the current agricultural insurance market in China, and the factors affecting the demand and
supply of agricultural insurance, and puts forward the solutions to the problems existing in the
current agricultural insurance market.
First, based on the existing research, data and other information, this paper makes a
detailed analysis of the development of agricultural insurance, and finds out the problems
existing in the development of the agricultural insurance market in China. Then, this paper
summarizes and reviews the related research in this field, and clarifies the research ideas of this
paper. Then, the paper analyzes the factors influencing the demand of agricultural insurance by
using the fixed effect model. The DEA Tobit model is used to measure the efficiency of
agricultural insurance operation and the agricultural insurance operation efficiency of the
people insurance property insurance in the provinces with high market share. The paper also
studies the influence factors of agricultural insurance operation efficiency as the index to
measure the willingness of agricultural insurance supply Finally, after the factors that have
significant influence on the supply and demand of agricultural insurance are clarified, the paper
adds the variables that have significant influence on the supply and demand of agricultural
insurance into the equilibrium analysis of agricultural insurance, and calculates the supply and
demand equation and transaction volume equation of agricultural insurance market by using
the non-equilibrium measurement model, and compares the supply and demand equation by the
supply and demand equation The difference between the demand and supply of agricultural
insurance is also discussed, and the imbalance degree of agricultural insurance market is further
calculated.
Finally, this paper draws the conclusion that the imbalance of agricultural insurance market
in some provinces is serious and the demand is greater than supply. The insurance level, the
actual price of agricultural insurance, the mechanization level and the local financial support
level all have significant influence on the demand of agricultural insurance; the compensation
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