摘要
摘要
随着国内医改新政策措施的密集发布，以及国际医药公司的激烈竞争，健康的财
务状况是医药类企业企业持续发展的根本保障。作为具有高资本投入和高技术特征的
欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司，我国医药欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司类上市公司面临着以仿制药为主，药品销售费用畸高，资产结构
不合理等隐藏的风险。一旦解决不好，会导致企业资不抵债、潜在亏损或者资金链断
裂等情况，甚至最终面临破产的困境。在实践中，没有得到足够关注和重视。准确的
财务预警可以帮助公司谨慎投资、优化资产结构和加强市场竞争力，有效降低财务困
境可能性。基于此，本文致力于对医药欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司类公司财务困境的预警研究，期望对我国
的医药欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司类上市公司财务预警方面提供一定的参考。
本文运用文献研究和案例分析相结合的方法，对医药企业的财务预警展开研究。
首先，选取医药类欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司的财务预警指标体系作为样本数据设计模板，从运营能力、盈
利能力、发展能力、偿债能力及现金流等财务研究角度，并综合股权集中度和 Z指数
等非财务研究角度进行阐述和分析，为后文提供支撑。接着，考虑医药欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司的特殊性，
初步全面选取了 58项财务预警指标，运用 F检验对各财务指标进行处理分析，再
依据重要性程度的排序对前面选取的指标进行筛选；排序后选取了 26项重要财务预
警指标。然后，进行主成分因子分析，确定了六个主因子。其次，运用 Logistic回
归分析构建了适用于医药欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司财务预警的 Logistic模型，采用误判成本的方法确定模
型中的最佳预警阈值点。然后选取了 30组医药上市公司相关指标数据，对模型进行
检验，建立的预警模型经检验准确率为 90%。最后，在实地了解 XX制药公司案例
后，选取 XX制药公司近年财务数据，根据前文构建的财务预警模型，代入相关财务
指标数据，得到很好印证，表明极大概率会出现财务困境情况。之后，基于预测结果，
分析该公司造成财务困境的因素原因，并提出相应改进措施。本文构建的医药欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司
Logistic预警模型，对医药欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司公司的财务预警具有一定实践参考意义。
关键词：医药上市公司；Logistic回归分析；最佳阈值；财务困境
I

Abstract
Abstract
With the intensive release of new policies and measures for domestic medical reform
and the fierce competition among international pharmaceutical companies, a healthy
financial situation is the fundamental guarantee for the sustainable development of
pharmaceutical companies. As an industry with high capital investment and high
technology, listed companies in my country's pharmaceutical industry are faced with
hidden risks such as generic drugs, abnormally high drug sales costs, and unreasonable
asset structure. Once the solution is not good, it will lead to the insolvency of the company,
potential losses or breakage of the capital chain, and even eventually face bankruptcy. In
practice, it has not received enough attention and attention. Accurate financial early
warning can help companies invest prudently, optimize asset structure and strengthen
market competitiveness, effectively reducing the possibility of financial distress. Based on
this, this paper is devoted to the early warning research on the financial distress of the
pharmaceutical industry companies, hoping to provide a certain reference for the financial
early warning of my country's pharmaceutical industry listed companies.
This paper uses the method of combining literature research and case analysis to study
the financial early warning of pharmaceutical companies. First of all, this paper adopts the
financial early warning indicator system of the pharmaceutical industry as the sample data
design template. From the perspective of financial research such as operating ability,
profitability, development ability, solvency and cash flow, and comprehensively
non-financial research perspectives such as equity concentration and Z index, it is
explained and analyzed to provide theoretical support for the following. Then, considering
the particularity of the pharmaceutical industry, 58 financial early warning indicators were
initially selected. The F test is used to process and analyze each financial indicator, and
then the previously selected indicators are screened according to the order of importance;
26 important financial early warning indicators are selected after sorting. Then, using the
screened 26 financial indicators to carry out principal component factor analysis, six
principal factors were determined. Secondly, a Logistic model suitable for financial early
warning in the pharmaceutical industry is constructed by using Logistic regression analysis,
and the optimal early warning threshold point in the model is determined by the method of
misjudgment cost. After determining the early warning model and the optimal threshold
III
。。。以下略