汇编 出版。保密的学位论文在解密后适用本规定。 研究生签名： 时间： 年 月 日 导师签名： 时间： 年 月 日I 摘要 近年来，房地产作为经济的火车头，其自身发展的同时也带动了与之密切的电梯欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司的发展。 究其原因，主要有三个方面：首先，随着老年人口占总人口比例的增大，中国有进入老龄化社会的 趋势，从而增大了对电梯的需求；其次，与电梯的寿命有关，2001 年我国开始安装第一批电梯， 电梯寿命一般是 15 年到 20 年，最早一批安装的电梯已经接近电梯的寿命，需要更换新的电梯；最 后，国家对民生问题的关注，近几年大力支持棚户小区的改造，从而让电梯欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司发展更加迅猛。 电梯欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司快速发展的同时，业内企业间的竞争变得尤为激烈，即便是电梯欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司的龙头企业也觉 得有一定的压力，如何在激烈竞争中立于不败之地是企业普遍关注的问题。针对此问题，英国的供 应链管理专家马丁·克里斯托弗早在 20 多年前就给过参考建议：企业之间的竞争归根结底是供应 链之间的竞争。如果企业重视供应链，能够及时对供应链上各个节点上的风险进行识别分析，并尽 早的评估供应链风险及采取有效的措施加以防范，将风险降到最低，从而可以确保供应链高效有序 运行。 本文以奥的斯电梯公司为例，主要对供应链上可能存在的风险进行识别和评估研究。本文首先 对论文研究背景及相关的理论进行阐述；其次，结合奥的斯公司供应链的实际情况以及奥的斯的特 有文化，识别出可能存在的风险，主要从环境风险、需求风险、供应风险以及合作风险四个方面来 论述；然后组织工作坊，让风险小组人员对不同类型的风险进行风险影响程度和发生概率两个维度 进行打分，在此基础上构建风险评价指标体系并结合奥的斯公司内部的操作规范和风险矩阵法来作 风险评估。最后，根据风险识别及评估的结果，对不同类型的风险进行有针对性的防范措施，从而 让风险尽可能的最小化。 关键字：电梯供应链；风险识别；风险评估；严格根源分析；风险矩阵II Abstract Recently, the real estate, as one of the most important parts of the service industry, has been accelerated dramatically because the economy is improved, in the meanwhile, the elevator industry is developed tremendously. There are three reasons as follows: first of all, with the growth of the aged population in China, our society will be an aging society which is beneficial to elevator industry; the second reason is due to the life span of the elevator, the average life span is 15to 20 years. In China, the first batch of the elevator is installed in 2001, that means the life span of these elevators is almost expired which needs to be replaced. Last but not the least, the government give a great support to the elevator enterprises if they could do the modernization for the old elevator in the old residential streets. Based on these reasons, it is a good time for the elevator industry. However, the competition among these enterprises has become fierce. Even some of the enterprises are the leading enterprises of elevator industry, they are also stressful. Therefore, enhancing the competitiveness has become an important issue for these enterprises. This issue has been paid too much attention by many experts. Martin Christopher, an expert in supply chain management area, mentioned that the competition among these enterprises is actually the competition of supply chain. In the paper, the author takes the supply chain of Otis elevator company as an example to implement the risk identification and assessment. To begin with, this paper starts from the background of the situation and introduces the related knowledge of supply chain and risk management; Then, the author combines the situation of the supply chain with the special culture of Otis elevator company, finds out these risks of the supply chain and judges the causes of risks from four aspects such as the external environment, unstable demand, the status of supply and the cooperation among the enterprises. And then, set up a frame of risk identification. After that, the author tries to assess the risk by collecting the related information of questionnaire and combining the rule of Otis elevator company with the risk matrix method. The risk matrix is divided into two dimensions: occurrence probability and serious degree. In the end of the paper, the author takes some effective measures to avoid the risks and minimize the risks based on the result of risk identification and assessment, which is valuable for enterprises. Key words: Elevator industry; Supply chain management;Risk identification;Risk assessment;Risk MatrixIII 目 录 摘要..............................................................................................................................................................I Abstract .......................................................................................................................................................... II 第一章 绪论...................................................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景和意义..............................................................................................................................1 1.1.1 研究背景..............................................................................................................................1 1.1.2 研究意义..............................................................................................................................1 1.2 文献综述..........................................................................................................................................2 1.2.1 国外研究现状......................................................................................................................2 1.2.2 国内研究现状......................................................................................................................4 1.2.3 国内外研究综述..................................................................................................................5 1.3 研究内容和方法..............................................................................................................................5 1.3.1 研究内容..............................................................................................................................5 1.3.2 研究方法..............................................................................................................................6 1.3.3 技术路线..............................................................................................................................6 第二章 相关理论基础...................................................................................................................................8 2.1 供应链管理相关理论......................................................................................................................8 2.1.1 供应链的含义及存在的意义..............................................................................................8 2.1.2 供应链的特征及结构..........................................................................................................9 2.1.3 供应链管理的含义............................................................................................................10 2.2 供应链风险识别与评估相关理论................................................................................................10 2.2.1 供应链风险的概念与特点................................................................................................10 2.2.2 供应链风险识别相关理论................................................................................................12 2.2.3 供应链风险评估相关理论................................................................................................14 2.3 本章小结........................................................................................................................................15 第三章 奥的斯电梯公司简介及供应链概况.............................................................................................16 3.1 电扶梯欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司介绍...........................................................................................................................16 3.1.1 电扶梯欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司的市场特点...............................................................................