随着中国“一带一路”步伐加快，越来越多中国企业开始在海外投资，以最初的 “中”字头国企为首，华为、腾讯等大型民营企业紧跟其后，中小民营企业也加速布局 海外。AS跨国集团作为国内成立较早且排名前十大计算机耗材企业，在国内外贸易快 速上升同时，积极寻求海外驻点，先后在印度、阿联酋、肯尼亚、乌干达设立子公司， 开疆拓土，大力扩展销售领域。但中小民营企业由于盘子孝内部管理关系混乱，其在 对外投资和自身管理中会遭遇来自文化、政治、环境等方方面面的不确定性。如果不提 高警惕，提前做好防范工作和补救措施，极易做出错误决策而给企业造成巨大经济损失 甚至倒闭。鉴于此，本文对AS跨国集团财务风险进行了深入的调查和研究分析。 本文基于文献综述，首先梳理了财务风险相关概念和理论基础；接着着重介绍了AS 跨国集团欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司背景，近五年财务管理状况；基于集团财务状况，通过实地访谈集团高管， 充分挖掘其财务数据，并运用相关财务能力指标识别出其潜在的财务风险及其具体风险 因子；采用调查问卷法和层次分析法进一步评价各风险因子对AS跨国集团财务风险影 响系数，并对影响系数进行高低排序；重点分析其财务风险内部形成原因和外部环境变 化对财务风险的影响；在此基础之上，建立AS跨国集团财务风险管理框架，逐一提出 相应风险控制方案、优化建议及监督保障措施，并得出结论。 通过以上分析，结合AS跨国集团实际经营状况，本文逐一提出针对具体财务风险 的管控措施和完善内部业务流程控制体系、规范重大决策审批流程、健全财务预算管理、 加强公司内部风险审计、增强风险防范意识等风险控制方案的监督保障措施。对AS跨 国集团未来发展具有现实意义，对其他跨国民营企业优化自身风险控制结构，防范财务 风险具有较强的借鉴作用。 关键词：财务风险；风险识别；风险形成机制；风险控制 II Abstract As China's "one belt, one road" step has been accelerated, more and more Chinese enterprises have begun to invest overseas. Chinese state-owned enterprises headed first, followed by HUAWEI, Tencent and other large private enterprises, which have also accelerated their layout of oversea SMEs. As an early established and top ten consumables enterprise in China, AS multinational group actively seeks oversea locations while rapidly increasing domestic and foreign trades. It has successively set up subsidiaries in India, the United Arab Emirates, Kenya and Uganda to expand its sales field. However, due to their small size and chaotic internal management, same as other small and medium-sized private enterprises，it encountered many uncertainties from culture, politics, environment and other aspects in their foreign investment and self-management. If we don't raise our vigilance and do a good job in prevention and remedial measures in advance, it is very easy to make wrong decisions and cause huge economic losses or even bankruptcy to enterprises. In view of this, this paper makes an in-depth study and analysis on the financial risk of AS multinational group. Based on the literature review,this paper first combs the related concepts and theoretical basis of financial risk.Then this paper introduces the industry background of AS multinational group and financial management status in the past five years.Based on the group's financial status, through serveral local interviews with AS group executives, I fully tap their financial data, and identify their potential major financial risks by using relevant ability indicators.At the same time, I initiate questionnaires method and analytic hierarchy process further evaluate the impact coefficient of each risk factor on the financial risk of AS multinational group, and rank the impact coefficient in high and low order. Focus on the analysis of the internal causes and external environment changes of its financial risk,I establish the financial risk management framework of AS multinational group, put forward corresponding risk control schemes, optimize suggestions and supervision and guarantee measures one by one, and draw the conclusion on. Through the above analysis, combined with the actual business situation of AS multinational group, this paper puts forward the risk control measures for specific risk factors one by one, and the supervision and guarantee measures for improving the internal business process control system, standardizing the major decision approval process, improving the financial budget management, strengthening the internal risk audit of the company, and enhancing the awareness of risk prevention. It has practical significance for the future III development of as multinational group, and can be used for reference for other multinational private enterprises to optimize their own risk control structure and prevent financial risks. Key words: Financial risk; Risk identification; Risk formation mechanism; Risk control IV 目 录 摘要 ............. I Abstract ......... II 第一章 绪论 .. 1 1.1 研究背景与意义 ................ 1 1.1.1 研究背景 ...................... 1 1.1.2 研究意义 ...................... 1 1.2 国内外研究现状 ................ 2 1.2.1 国内研究现状 .............. 2 1.2.2 国外研究现状 .............. 6 1.3 概念界定与理论基础 ........ 8 1.3.1 财务风险定义及分类 .. 8 1.3.2 财务风险识别及评价 .. 8 1.3.3 财务风险管理及控制 10 1.4 研究方法与研究内容 ...... 11 1.4.1 研究方法 .................... 11 1.4.2 研究内容 .................... 12 1.4.3 研究路线 .................... 13 第二章 AS跨国集团背景及财务状况 .................... 14 2.1 AS跨国集团背景介绍 ..... 14 2.1.1 AS跨国集团基本情况 .............................. 14 2.1.2 AS跨国集团组织架构 .............................. 14 2.1.3 AS跨国集团主营产品 .............................. 15 2.2 打印耗材欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司背景介绍 .. 16 2.2.1 国内外打印耗材出货量 ........................... 16 2.2.2 国内打印耗材企业 .... 17 2.2.3 AS集团与竞争对手比较 .......................... 18 2.3 AS跨国集团财务状况介绍 ............................ 19 2.3.1 总体状况 .................... 19 2.3.2 偿债能力 .................... 20 V 2.3.3 盈利能力 .................... 21 2.3.4 营运能力 .................... 21 2.4 本章小结 .......................... 22 第三章 AS跨国集团财务风险识别及评价 ............ 23 3.1 AS跨国集团财务风险识别 ............................ 23 3.1.1 集团实地访谈 ............ 23 3.1.2 筹资风险识别 ............ 23 3.1.3 投资风险识别 ............ 26 3.1.4 营运风险识别 ............ 29 3.2 AS跨国集团财务风险评价 ............................ 31 3.2.1 评价方法选择 ............ 31 3.2.2 构建层次模型 ............ 32 3.2.3 设计调查问卷 ............ 33 3.2.4 构造判断矩阵 ............ 34 3.2.5 样本一致性检验 ........ 37 3.2.6 计算权重系数 ............ 37 3.3 本章小结 .......................... 38 第四章 AS跨国集团财务风险形成机制分析 ........ 39 4.1 AS跨国集团财务风险内部形成机制分析 .... 39 4.1.1 筹资风险形成机制分析 ........................... 39 4.1.2 投资风险形成机制分析 ........................... 40 4.1.3 营运风险形成机制分析 ........................... 42 4.2 AS跨国集团财务风险外部形成机制分析 .... 45 4.2.1 宏观经济的影响分析 45 4.2.2 文化差异的影响分析 45 4.2.3 国家政策的影响分析 46 4.2.4 欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司周期的影响分析 46 4.3 本章小结 .......................... 46 第五章 AS跨国集团财务风险控制方案及监督保障措施 ................... 48 5.1 AS跨国集团财务风险控制方案 .................... 48 VI 5.1.1 AS跨国集团财务风险管理框架 .............. 48 5.1.2 筹资风险控制方案 .... 48 5.1.3 投资风险控制方案 .... 49 5.1.4 营运风险控制方案 .... 50 5.2 AS跨国集团财务风险控制监督保障措施 .... 52 5.2.1 完善集团内部控制体系 ........................... 52 5.2.2 规范重大决策审批流程 ........................... 53 5.2.3 健全财务预算管理 .... 54 5.2.4 增强风险防范意识 .... 54 5.3 本章小结 .......................... 55 结论 .............. 56