1 摘要 自从改革开放以来，中国的经济飞速发展，尤其是经济产业中的制造业的发展 十分迅速，且得到了一定的发展成果。这些年来，制造业的技术经过一直在不断地 更新与完善后，高效促进了我国制造产能的增加和制造产品的质量的提高，大大促 进了制造产业的良好科学发展。借着我国一直在努力扩大对外贸易的这阵风，我国 高新技术类产品在海外市场也占据了一席之位，据相关数据显示，我国高新技术类 产品销往海外的产量每年都以倍增的速度增加。但是对外贸易的高速发展，也带了 一定的挑战，例如国际贸易的竞争进入了白热化阶段，我国大大小小的对外贸易企 业在海外市场的投资越来越重，而经营风险却越来越大。我国对外贸易企业主要面 临着大量各国企业抢占海外市场份额、未及时收款汇款、各国支付方式多种多样等 等风险，很容易陷入损失资金、甚至破产的地步。因此我国外贸企业必须真正地重 视风险评估以及风险管制等问题。 本文结合外贸企业风险管理相关理论，利用文献研究法、案例分析法等研究方 法，以上海伽晟贸易公司为例，对我国中小外贸企业风险管理相关问题进行研究。 本文研究主要包括以下几个部分的内容：第一部分为导论，主要分析了当前中小企 业外贸业务风险管理的背景，明晰了研究中小企业外贸业务风险管理问题的意义， 介绍了本文研究思路与方法；第二部分是相关概念界定与理论基础，主要对国内外 关于中小企业对外贸易风险管理相关研究文献及相关理论进行了分析；第三部分是 上海伽晟贸易公司对外贸易风险管理现状，主要对上海伽晟贸易公司对外贸易风险 现状进行了识别和描述；第四部分是上海伽晟贸易有限公司风险评估，主要利用综 合模糊分析法，对上海伽晟对外贸易风险进行了评估；第五部分是针对上海伽晟贸 易有限公司风险管理现状及评估结果，提出相应的管理措施。 本文的基本结论有以下几点：一是国际贸易的复杂环境与外贸企业发展需要决 定了外贸企业有必要加强对外贸易风险管理；二是当前国内外学者针对外贸风险管 理的研究不够系统，已有研究不够深入；三是国外外贸企业风险管理理念、体系较 为成熟，值得国内外贸企业学习和借鉴；四是上海伽晟公司面临的风险有以下几项： 合同签订、订单处理与生产、信用证结算、对外出口运输等风险，其中，又以合同 风险最为严重，其次为信用证风险；五是针对上海伽晟公司面临的外贸风险，需要 同步制定针对性、科学化的相应的风险应对措施、确定权威可控的监察管理系统、 设置专门应对风险的管理部门和风险预警机制等方面加强风险管理。 关键词：对外贸易；风险管理；德尔菲法；综合模糊分析法 伽晟公司对外贸易风险管理研究 I Abstract In recent years, with the continuous improvement of China's manufacturing technology, China's manufacturing industry has developed rapidly, and a large number of high-tech products have been exported abroad, occupying an important position in the world. However, with the continuous expansion of China's foreign trade, international trade competition is also intensifying, which results in more and more risks encountered by domestic foreign trade enterprises in the international market. Diversified market competition, diversified payment methods, overdue receipt of foreign exchange and other problems will bring loss risk to enterprises. How to strengthen their ability to resist and prevent risks and how to manage and control risks has become a problem that enterprises need to consider. Therefore, the research on international trade risks is of practical significance. In this paper, combined with relevant theories of risk management of foreign trade enterprises, literature research method, case analysis method and other research methods, taking Shanghai jiasheng trading company as an example, to study the risk management of small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises in China. This paper mainly includes the following parts: the first part is the introduction, which mainly analyzes the background of foreign trade business risk management of small and medium-sized enterprises, clarifies the significance of foreign trade business risk management of small and medium-sized enterprises, and introduces the research ideas and methods of this paper. The second part is the definition of relevant concepts and theoretical basis, mainly to the small and medium-sized enterprises foreign trade risk management related research literature and related theory analysis; The third part is the status quo of foreign trade risk management of Shanghai jiasheng trading company. It mainly identifies and describes the status quo of foreign trade risk of Shanghai jiasheng trading company. The fourth part is the risk assessment of Shanghai jiasheng trade co., LTD., which mainly USES the comprehensive fuzzy analysis method to evaluate the foreign trade risk of Shanghai jiasheng. The fifth part is based on the risk management status and assessment results of Shanghai jiasheng trading co., LTD., and puts forward the corresponding management measures. The basic conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, the complex environment of international trade and the development needs of foreign trade enterprises determine that it is necessary for foreign trade enterprises to strengthen foreign trade risk management; Second, the current domestic and foreign scholars for foreign trade risk management research is not systematic, the existing research is not deep enough; Third, the risk management concepts and systems of foreign trade enterprises are relatively mature, which are worthy of learning and learning from domestic foreign trade enterprises. Fourth, Abstract II the main risks of Shanghai jiasheng company include order processing risk, contract signing risk, order production risk, export transportation risk, letter of credit settlement risk and other risks. Among them, contract risk is the most serious, followed by letter of credit risk. Fifth, for the foreign trade risks of Shanghai jiasheng company, in addition to establishing targeted countermeasures, we should also strengthen risk management from the establishment of risk management departments, the establishment of a whole-process supervision system and risk early warning mechanism. Key words: Foreign trade; Risk management; Delphi method; Comprehensive fuzzy analysis method 伽晟公司对外贸易风险管理研究 1 目 录 导 论 ······ 1 一、研究背景与意义 ·· 1 二、国内外研究动态 ·· 2 三、研究思路及方法 ·· 4 四、研究内容及创新点 ················· 5 第一章 相关概念界定及理论基础 6 第一节 风险管理的内涵 6 一、风险的含义明确 ·· 6 二、风险管理的含义明确 ·············· 7 三、风险管理的主要准则 ·············· 7 四、风险管理的管制期望 ·············· 7 第二节 企业对外贸易的风险管理 ······ 9 一、国际贸易风险的的含义明确 ····· 9 二、外贸企业风险管理的变革 ········ 9 第三节 外贸企业风险管理的理论基础 ················ 10 一、风险管理理论 ··· 10 二、全面风险管理理论 ··············· 11 三、以COSO内控理论为核心的风险管理理论 ··· 12 第二章 上海伽晟贸易有限公司国际贸易风险现状 ·········· 13 第一节 上海伽晟贸易有限公司简介 · 13 一、公司基本情况 ··· 13 二、公司外贸业务流程 ··············· 13 第二节 上海伽晟贸易有限公司对外贸易风险识别 · 16 一、基于WBS法的业务流程分解 · 16 二、基于德尔菲法的风险因素指标识别 ············ 17 三、上海伽晟贸易有限公司对外贸易风险描述 ··· 19 第三章 上海伽晟贸易有限公司国际贸易风险的评估 ······ 23 第一节 上海伽晟贸易有限公司国际贸易风险评价指标体系的构建 ················ 23 一、评价指标体系的概念 ············ 23 二、建立外贸企业外贸风险评价指标体系的基本原则 ············ 23 三、上海伽晟贸易有限公司国际贸易风险评价指标体系 ········· 24 第二节 上海伽晟贸易有限公司国际贸易风险评价指标权重的确定 ················ 26 目录 2 一、以序关系为依据的指标权重确定法 ············ 26 二、贸易风险评价指标权重的确定 28 第三节 风险评价的结果 ················ 29 一、模糊综合评价法 29 二、上海伽晟贸易有限公司外贸风险等级设定 ··· 29 三、上海伽晟贸易有限公司外贸业务风险评价结果 ··············· 30 第四章 加强上海伽晟对外贸易风险管理的对策 ············· 32 第一节 各类型风险管理策略及应对措施 ············· 32 一、订单处理风险的管理策略与应对措施 ········· 32 二、“合同签订”环节各风险点的管理策略与应对措施 ········