I 摘要 房地产欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司是我国的支柱产业之一。自 2003 年房地产欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司进入快速增长阶段 后，房价节节攀升。2010 年 4 月起, 国家和各主要城市先后出台一系列政策对过 热的房地产市场进行调控，致使房地产欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司增长减缓，房地产欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司迎来深度调整 时期。2014 年 8 月，全国 70 个大中城市中，有 68 个城市新建商品住宅环比价格 下降，仅厦门一个城市上涨。由于房地产市场的低迷，许多城市取消了限购政策。 但时至今日，房地产业仍没有走出低谷。 在此背景下，房地产企业生存状况逐步恶化，项目投资越来越谨慎，对项目 的可行性研究越来越苛刻，以确保项目能够盈利。本文将从四个方面展开研究： 第一章是绪论。这一章主要阐述研究背景，研究目的与意义，梳理国内外可 行性研究的相关文献，并介绍本文的研究内容与路线。 第二章是房地产投资可行性研究基本理论。本章首先介绍了房地产可行性研 究的概念及内容，然后整理房地产投资可行性研究的基本理论。 第三章是南充 BJ 项目的可行性分析。本章从八个方面展开。第一节是项目概 述。第二节是房地产宏观经济分析，这一节将从全国房地产市场和四川房地产市 场两个方面进行深入的分析。第三节是南充市房地产前景分析。第四节是南充市 市场需求分析，包括：土地市场需求分析、住宅市场需求分析、商业市场需求分 析、当前房地产市场特征。第五节是项目建设和实施方案分析，包括：通过对项 目的 SWOT 分析，明确项目的优势劣势机会与威胁；项目实施方案的产品营销策 略分析；项目建设方案分析。第六节是项目投资及财务分析，本节包括项目总投 资估算、资金筹措及还款计划、营业收入估算、成本费用估算、相关税费估算、 项目效益分析以及项目的财务分析。第七节是项目风险分析及应对措施，将从敏 感性分析和蒙特卡洛分析两个方面展开对项目风险的评估，并提出应对风险的措 施。最后一节是 BJ 项目可行性研究的结论与建议。 第四章是结论与展望。本章对本文的研究结论进行了概括，提出了我国房地 产开发项目可行性研究的一般范式，最后对后续研究的展望进行了探讨。 本文丰富了对房地产开发项目经济可行性研究的成果。并力图建立可行性研 究的基本范式，在解决具体项目前期分析的同时，对今后公司房地产开发的可行 性研究提供一套比较成熟的理论和分析方法。 关键词：房地产 可行性研究 蒙特卡洛分析ABSTRACT II ABSTRACT Real estate industry is one of the fundamental industries in China. The real estate industry has stepped into an era of rapid growth and the house price has been increasing since 2003. The central government and the major cities have issued a series of policies to regulate the overheated real estate since April 2010, then the real estate industry grew less rapid and the real estate industry stepped into a period of deep adjustment. In August 2014, the prices of the new commercialized residential buildings decreased against last month in 68 cities while that of Xiamen increased among 70 large and middle-sized cities of China. Many cities have canceled the policy of restriction on purchase because of the depression of real estate market. However, the real estate industry is still in the bottom. In this background, the surrounding of real estate companies is deteriorating; they are more and more cautious on investments and taking more and more serious on feasibility study to make sure that the projects are profitable. This article includes four aspects : Chapter one is the introduction, which narrates the background, the target, the meaning of the research, literature review, the research contents and methods. Chapter 2 is the basic theories on feasibility study of estate investment, which depicts from two aspects: one is the concept on feasibility study of estate investment ; the other is basic theory of the feasibility study. Chapter 3 is the feasibility of Nan Chong BJ project, which includes 8 parts. Part 1 is the project summary. Part 2 is the marco analyses of real estate, including the national market and Sichuan market. Part 3 is the prospect of Nan Chong real estate. Part 4 is the real estate market demands analyses in Nan Chong, which includes the analyses of land market demands, the analyses of housing markets demands, the analyses of commercial market demands and the analyses of the present market traits of real estate. Part 5 is analyses of project construction and promgramme complementation. Firstly, SWOT analyses is taken. Secondly, the marketing strategy is taken. Thirdly, the analyses of project construction programme. Part 6 is project investment and finance analyses, including estimation of the total investment, operating income, cost and expenses, relevant taxes and fees, project benefit and project finance. Part 7 is risk analyses and measurements. Sensitivity analysis and Monta Carlo simulation analysis are taken toABSTRACT III estimate the project risk. The counter-measurements are concluded. The final part is conclusion and suggests for the feasibility of BJ project. Chapter 4 talks about conclusions and expectations, which gives the main conclusions of this article and obtain a common mode of the feasibility study of domestic real estate development project. The expectation of subsequent study is talked about. This article enriches the achievement of the feasibility study of estate development project and tries to establish a common mode of the feasibility study of estate development project and list a set of mature theory and analytical method to future feasibility study of estate development project Key words: Real Estate, Feasibility Analysis, Monte Carlo Metho目 录 IV 目 录 第一章 绪论.................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 研究目的及意义 .................................................................................................... 1 1.3 国内外研究现状 .................................................................................................... 2 1.3.1 国外研究现状 ................................................................................................. 2 1.3.2 国内研究现状 ................................................................................................. 3 1.3.3 国内外可行性研究的特点与展望 .................................................................. 4 1.4 研究内容及路线 .................................................................................................... 4 1.5 小结 ........................................................................................................................ 5 第二章 房地产可行性研究理论基础............................................................................ 6 2.1 房地产可行性研究概述 ........................................................................................ 6 2.1.1 房地产可行性研究的概念及内容 ................................................................. 6 2.1.2 房地产可行性研究的作用 .............................................................................. 7 2.1.3 房地产可行性研究的依据 ............................................................................. 7 2.1.4 房地产可行性研究的步骤 ............................................................................. 9 2.1.5 房地产可行性研究的分析方法 ................................................................... 9 2.2 房地产可行性研究的基本理论 .......................................................................... 10 2.2.1 国外房地产投资可行性研究理论 ............................................................... 10 2.2.2 国内房地产可行性研究理论 ........................................................................11 2.2.3 房地产投资基础理论介绍 ........................................................................... 12 2. 3 小结 ................................................................................................................. 14 第三章 南充市 BJ 房地产项目可行性分析............................................................... 15 3.1 项目概述 .............................................................................................................. 15 3.2 项目市场环境分析 .............................................................................................. 15 3.2.1 全国房地产市场宏观环境分析 .......................................