:房地产幵发投资活动是一项复杂、髙投入、高风险的系统工程, 因而投资决策就必须慎之又慎。投资决策的参考依据有很多,如项目 的位置、地块情况、开发难度、开发周期、投资回报等等,但真正做 到系统分析的,就只有项目的可行性研究。只有做好了项目可行性研 究,投资决策活动才能真正做到科学、准确,而投资回报也才能真正 得到有效保障。 本文依据房地产幵发项目可行性研究的一般性要求,结合项目技 术经济评价理论,在参考了国内外相关可行性研究理论的基础上对 ABC地块幵发进行了初步可行性研究,研究内容包括房地产开发项目 可行性研究基本理论,长沙市房地产市场发展宏观、微观分析,地块 开发相关技术、经济分析,本次研究的相关结论等。本次可行性研究 遵循了系统性、合理性、市场化、实事求是等原则,力求准确还原项 目及市场真相,做到不夸大、不缩小项目可能遭遇的风险及未来可能 实现的盈利,力求为项目的投资决策提供科学的、准确的、贴近市场 的参考依据。 本次可行性研究由于是初步可行性研究,因而对房地产整体市场 情况及购房者特征等房地产宏观、微观发展情况作了较多阐述,力求 还原真实市场;而针对项目的财务分析则主要是依据项目地概况,结 合周边地块平均开发成本和销售收入进行的预测分析,而没有考虑到 开发公司自身的特点和优势及未来新技术、新设计、新产品等的采用, 因而财务预测仅是粗略的,需要未来在详细可行性研究中进行修正或 补充,并完备其他不完善的部分。 总的来看,本次可行性研究对ABC地块开发项目的项目决策具有 重要参考意义,对其他类似项目也有一定的借鉴意义。 关键词:房地产,初步可行性研究 分类号: II The Feasibility Study of Real Estate Development at ABC Plot of New and Hi-Tech Zone in Changsha Abstract: Investment activity in Real Estate Development is a sophisticated, high cost and high risk system engineering. Thus investment decisions should be doubly cautious. There are many factors which can be used as reference foundation of investment decision-making, such as project location, land condition, the difficulty of development, the development cycle and return on investment etc. However, only the project feasibility study is truly a matter of the system analysis. Only when the project feasibility study is performed properly, the investment decision-making can be scientific and accurate as well as the return on investment effectively guaranteed. This article carried on the preliminary feasibility study of ABC parcel development according to the general requirements for a real estate development project feasibility study, the project technical and economic evaluation theory and the relevant feasibility study theory at home and abroad. Research includes the basic theory of real estate development project feasibility study, macro and micro analysis of Changsha real estate market development and related technical and economic analysis on the development of land, and the study of the related conclusion.This feasibility study followed the principles of systematicness, rationality, marketization, seeking truth from facts and so on, and strive to offer scientific, accurate references that is close to the market by showing the real state of the project and the market, without the exaggeration and reduction of the risks and the profits may face in the future. As the feasibility study is a preliminary, this article strives to display the real market by stating the macro and micro overall market situation and buyers of real estate real estate development situation; in view of the project financial analysis are mainly based on the project general situation, combined with the average development cost and sales income forecast analysis of surrounding plots, without considering the development company's own characteristics and advantages, and the future of new technology, new design, new product adoption, so the financial forecast is rough, need to be modified or replenished in the future and improved. hi On the whole, the feasibility study on the ABC parcel development project which is of important reference value of the project, for other similar projects also have certain reference significance. Keywords: real estate, prefeasibility study Classification: IV 目录 原创性声明 I 翻 II Abstract Ill 0录 v m-# ^ i-fe i 1.1选题背景及意义 1 1.2房地产开发项目可行性研究理论综述 2 1.2.1可行性研究的概念 2 1.2.2可行性研究的特点 3 1.2.3 国内外研究水平及现状 4 1.3报告结构、研究方法及数据来源 5 1.3.1 报告结构 5 1.3.2研妨法 6 1.3.3 醒来源 7 第二章长沙市房地产市场现状与政策分析 8 2.1城市发展规划分析 8 2.1.1城市发展总体规划 8 2.1.2商业发展规划 8 2.1.3区域发展规划 9 2.2整体房地产市场分析 10 2.2.1 投资施工情况 10 2.2.2 土地供销情况 12 2.2.3商品房市场供销情况 14 2.2.4 二手房市场交易情况 25 2.2.5现有住房保障情况 29 2.3区域房地产市场分析 30 2.3.1项目区域市场界定 30 2.3.2高新区基本情况简介 31 2.3.3高新区既有市场情况分析 32 2.3.4高新区未来目标市场分析 35 2.4随楼盘分析 37 2.4.1竞盘基本情况 37 2.4.2竞盘往期推售节点去化情况 38 2.5房地产市场相关政策分析 40 2.5.1 “三限“——限购、限贷、限价 40 2.5.2资金监管——开发贷款、土地出让价款、预售资金 43 2.5.3商品房预售管理 44 2.5.4住房保障政策 45 2.5.5房地产相关税费政策 46 2.5.6其他综合性调控政策 48 第三章ABC地块概况、定位及开发方案建议 49 3.1项目地块分析 49 3.1.1地块基本情况 49 3.1.2地块区域增值潜力分析 52 3.1.3地块地价估算 53 3.2项目定位 55 3.2.1 项目SWOT分析 55 3.2.2项目综合定位 57 3.3项目开发方案建议 62 3.3.1 总体开发方案 62 3.3.2户型配比方案 63 3.3.3项目分期幵发策略 63 3.3.4销售速度分析及预测 64 第四章项目的技术经济评价及风险分析 67 4.1项目投资估算 67 4.1.1基础指标测算 67 4.1.2投资估算 67 4.2 盈亏平衡分析 68 4.2.1方案A:项目商品房均价为7455元/平方米 68 4.2.2方案B:项目商品房均价上浮10% 69 4.2.3方案C:项目商品房均价上浮20% 69 4.3敏感性分析 70 4.4风险分析 70 4.4.1政策风险 70 4.4.2 区域市场风险 71 VI 4.4.3 信贷风险 71 4.4.4技术风险 71 4.4.5经营风险 72 4.4.6 财务风险 72 4.4.7风险规避措施 72 第五章结论与建议 73 5.1本次可行性研究的结论 73 5.2本次可行性研究的不足与建议 74 5.2.1 不足 74 5.2.2 建议 75