本文主要以东莞市曼哈顿时代广场为对象，按照商业计划书的要求，全面详细的分 析了项目的各方面状况。该项目依托东莞市综艺集团作为该项目建设及招商的平台。 “曼哈顿时代广场”位于东莞市南城区鸿福路与莞太路交汇处，西侧紧临银丰路， 北侧为鸿福西路。总建筑面积 7 万多平方米，拟组建一个以各类零售品经销商、生产企 业地区代理商或分销机构、超市、商场为主要服务对象的大型现代化服务中心。项目前 期准备工作将于 2009 年年初完成，整个项目分二期进行成片滚动开发，于 2010 年全部 完成。 该项目为解决各类投资需求进行规划，以便投资的企业或个人以最少的投入获得最 好的客流和最便捷的物流服务，从而取得最佳的经济效益，其运行模式有良好的可操作 性和抗风险能力。项目对中等收入的人群有明显的聚集效应。 本项目结合战略管理理论，研究了项目的经营环境，制定出项目经营计划；结合行 业竞争模式理论，分析了竞争对手的态势，制定了销售计划；并结合技术经济分析方法， 重点分析了项目的各项财务指标，进行风险分析，得出了项目可行的结论。在分析财务 指标时，首先从市场研究着手，通过比较分析同欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司状况，确定项目各功能的市场价格， 得出财务分析的基础数据。然后依据此数据对项目未来四十年的企业现金流做了预测， 进而得出项目的投资回收期、内部收益率等指标。最后运用敏感性分析方法，确定了影 响企业的最大经营因素，为企业的运作提供了决策依据。 报告最后的结论是，项目处于欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司成长期，竞争日趋激烈但有很大的市场空间，最 重要的是项目的财务效益相当可观，如果提升管理，有目的地防范风险，投资者必将获 得可观的经济回报。 关键词，曼哈顿时代广场；商业计划书；财务分析；可行性II Abstract According to the request of Business Plan, this paper focuses on Manhattan Times Square in dongguan city. It studies situations of the project in all hands in detail. This project is depends on the Dongguan Zongyi Group which is considered as the platform to take the construction and businessmen. “Manhattan Times Square” is located at the intersection between Hongfu Road and Guantai Road of Dongguan’s nancheng District, the west side of it nears Yinfeng Road and the north side is Hongfu Western Road. The whole building area is 70,000 square metre, which plans to setup a large-scale modern service center which takes kinds of retail sales dealer, production enterprise area business agent or organization of distribution, supermarket and shopping mall as the service object. The advance-phase preparation of project will be accomplished at the beginning of 2009, the whole project will be implemented in two stages to conduct progressive exploration and will be finished completely on 2010. This project programs to resolve kinds of investment demand in order to make the enterprises and individual get the best passenger flow and the most convenient logistics service by the least input, and then get the best economic efficiency, its run mode has good maneuverability and risk resistance capacity. The project has obvious agglomeration effect to middle income people. This plan based on strategic management theory, it analyses operational surrounding and forms operational plan. Based on industrial competition theory, it studies the trend of rivals and forms sale plan. And based on technical economics evaluation method, it attaches most importance to the analysis of financial index and risk, then makes a conclusion of feasibility. Analyzing financial index, it begins with studying of market and decides prices of the project functions by comparing craft brothers. It offers the basic data for financial analysis. Then according to the data, it forecasts cash flow of forty years in future and gains financial indexes as time of investment reclaim, IRR and so on. At last, it finds the most important factor that affects the project, which provides gist to manage the project. The conclusion of this paper is that the project is in growth period, there is huge market although competition is very intense, the most important is the project’s benefit is good. The investor will gain good repay by promoting management and keeping away risks correctly. Key words: Manhattan Times Square; Business Plan; Financial Analysis; FeasibilityIII 目 录 摘要...........................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT ...............................................................................................................................II 第一章 绪论..............................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景及意义.............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 文献综述.......................................................................................................................... 3 1.2.1 商业计划书............................................................................................................... 3 1.2.2 商业房地产的定义................................................................................................... 4 1.2.3 经济评价方法........................................................................................................... 4 1.2.4 风险分析................................................................................................................... 5 1.3 研究内容.......................................................................................................................... 6 1.4 研究方法.......................................................................................................................... 7 1.5 本章小结.......................................................................................................................... 8 第二章 项目概况......................................................................................................................9 2.1 项目宗旨.......................................................................................................................... 9 2.2 项目规划设计.................................................................................................................. 9 2.3 运作计划........................................................................................................................ 11 2.3.1 总体计划................................................................................................................. 11 2.3.2 近期计划................................................................................................................. 11 2.4 项目运营........................................................................................................................ 13 2.5 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 14 第三章 市场分析....................................................................................................................15 3.1 我国商业地产现状........................................................................................................ 15 3.1.1 众多地产公司进军商业地..................................................................................... 15 3.1.2 受调控影响小......................................................................................................... 15 3.1.3 商业地产长线价值被唤醒..................................................................................... 15 3.2 东莞商业地产现状........................................................................................................ 16 3.2.1 东莞商业地产快速发展......................................................................................... 16IV 3.2.2 商业地产经营思路调整......................................................................................... 17 3.2.3 东莞商圈规划有利于商业地产发展..................................................................... 18 3.3 东莞南城区商业地产情况............................................................................................ 20 3.4 需求市场分析.................................................................................................