焦作矿区作为国家重要无烟煤生产基地之一，为国民经济的建设和发展做出 了重要贡献，矿区最高年生产能力曾达到 7.0Mt。上世纪八十年代以来，由于资 源枯竭，矿区内先后有 8 对矿井关闭破产或者报废转产，新井接替不上，致使煤 炭产量急剧下降，企业的发展和矿区的稳定面临着严峻的考验。因此，加快焦作 煤田赵固矿区的开发建设已是刻不容缓。与赵固二矿邻近的程村矿和赵固一矿已 经开发建设，其建井条件和赵固二矿相似，为赵固二矿的建设提供了宝贵的技术 经验。为了保证赵固二矿项目投资决策的正确性，必须加强对此类项目投资方案 的可行性研究。 本文从焦煤集团实际出发，采用理论与实践相结合的研究方法，详实地分析 了该企业赵固二矿矿井项目的可行性问题。文中首先介绍了可行性研究的相关理 论和拟建项目概况，然后结合可行性研究的方法和程序，运用现代工程学、经济 学和管理科学理论从市场、技术方案，经济和风险四个方面对该项目的可行性进 行了论述，在经济评价中主要采用灰色理论和灰色评价数学模型对项目投产后的 财务效益进行了分析论证。通过分析论证最后得出了赵固二矿项目可行的结论， 并提出了建议。 关键词，可行性研究；投资项目；财务评价；灰色评价Abstract As a national important anthracite production base, Jiaozuo mining area has made important contributions to the construction and development of the national economy. The mining area had reached the maximum annual production capacity of 7.0Mt in the past years. Since the eighties of the last century, due to resource depletion, there are eight pairs of mine has been shut down or scrapped within the mining area, and new wells do not succeed, resulting in a sharp decline in coal production. Under this situation, enterprise development and the stability of the mining area are faced with a severe test. Therefore, accelerating Zhaogu Coal Mine development is of great importance. Zhaogu First Coal Mine and Cheng Coal Mine nearby have been developed. There are much the same among these mines. They can provide valuable technical experience to Zhaogu second coal exploitation. But the economic evaluation for investment project of coal exploitation project must been enhanced in order to ensure the correctness of investment decision of such kind projects. Based on the situation of Jiaomei Group and the research method of the integration of theory and practice，in this thesis，the main problems that enlarging the coal exploitation project are analyzed in detail. First of all, the thesis introduces some relevant theories about feasibility study，and briefly describes the basic condition of the project. Then it analyses and demonstrates the project from the aspects of marketing, technology, economy and risks combined with the methods and procedures of feasibility study as well as modern engineering science, economics and management science. The thesis also uses the gray theory and gray evaluation model to calculate investment and financial benefit. It finally gets a conclusion that the project is feasible and provides some useful suggestions. Key words: feasibility study; investment project; financial evaluation; gray evaluation目 录 第一章 绪论 ...............................................................................................................1 1.1 选题的背景和意义........................................................................................1 1.2 国内外可行性研究发展概况综述................................................................2 1.3 报告的研究内容............................................................................................6 第二章 可行性研究理论综述 ...................................................................................7 2.1 可行性研究的概念........................................................................................7 2.2 可行性研究的作用........................................................................................7 2.3 可行性研究的依据和要求............................................................................8 2.4 可行性研究的阶段划分................................................................................9 2.5 可行性研究的主要内容.............................................................................. 11 第三章 项目建设的必要性 .....................................................................................15 3.1 项目名称及建设单位简介..........................................................................15 3.2 项目提出的理由与过程..............................................................................16 3.3 项目介绍......................................................................................................16 3.4 项目建设的必要性......................................................................................17 3.5 市场研究......................................................................................................18 3.6 市场预测......................................................................................................20 3.7 项目的市场调查和预测..............................................................................25 第四章 项目技术方案可行性分析.........................................................................30 4.1 建设规模与服务年限..................................................................................30 4.2 井田开拓与开采..........................................................................................33 4.3 矿井设备方案..............................................................................................35 4.4 环境影响评价与劳动安全..........................................................................39 4.5 组织机构与人力资源配置..........................................................................44 第五章 投资估算与财务评价 .................................................................................49 5.1 投资估算......................................................................................................49 5.2 财务评价基本原理......................................................................................51 5.3 灰色评价与灰数运算..................................................................................54 5.4 基于灰色评价模型的财务评价..................................................................59第六章 项目风险分析 .............................................................................................65 6.1 风险分析概述..............................................................................................65 6.2 本项目风险分析..........................................................................................68 第七章 结论和建议 .................................................................................................71