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iii
Preface
In 2016, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Ofce of Policy—
Strategy, Plans, Analysis, and Risk (SPAR), asked the RAND National Defense
Research Institute to design and implement a risk identifcation and characterization
of natural and manmade threats and hazards to identify the greatest risks to homeland
security and support prioritization of DHS mission elements as part of DHS strategic
planning processes.
Tis report describes the risk assessment methodology RAND researchers devel-
oped to address these goals. It also presents summary sheets of threats and hazards
to inform discussion of DHS risk management priorities, which are included in an
accompanying For Ofcial Use Only volume. A separate policy-oriented report will be
issued by the DHS Ofce of Policy to present key fndings about the risks from home-
land security threats and hazards and the priorities for managing them.
Tis research was sponsored by SPAR and conducted within the RAND Home-
land Security and Defense Center, a joint center of RAND Justice, Infrastructure, and
Environment and the RAND National Defense Research Institute (NDRI), a feder-
ally funded research and development center sponsored by the Ofce of the Secretary
of Defense, the Joint Staf, the Unifed Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine
Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community.
Comments or questions on this draft report should be addressed to the project
leader Henry Willis at hwillis@rand.
For more information on NDRI, see /nsrd.
v
Contents
Preface .iii
Figures and Tables ...........vii
Summary ..........ix
Acknowledgments .........xvii
Abbreviations ....xix
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction .......1
Background .........1
Overview of Risk Assessment Methodology ........4
Limitations .........12
Organization of Tis Report .14
CHAPTER TWO
Selecting Treats and Hazards ........15
Part 1: Generation of a List of Treats and Hazards for the HSNRC ..16
Part 2: Selection of Screening Criteria for the HSNRC.....17
Part 3: Selection of a Set of Treats and Hazards for Inclusion in the HSNRC ..18
CHAPTER THREE
Selecting Risk Attributes ...21
Part 1: Selection of Criteria for Risk Attributes ...21
Part 2: Selection of Risk Attributes...22
Selected Set of Attributes for Describing Consequences and Uncertainty ........23
Defnitions and Measurement Approaches for Health, Safety, and Security Attributes ......25
Defnitions and Measurement Approaches for Economic Attributes ..27
Defnitions and Measurement Approaches for Environment and Governance
Attributes .....28
Defnitions and Measurement Approaches for Attributes of Frequency, Predictability,
and Precision .30。