China basic materials – coverage summary3
Commodity price deck4
China Basic Materials Monitor (September 2018) – return of solid seasonality5
China downstream demand snapshots8
China air quality tracking11
Steel: supply discipline remains the same, despite of rising complexity of winter suspension plan13
Steel-making raw materials: High grade premium persists15
Coal: coming off from peak season, upside risk in price due to lower social inventory18
Cement: solid 4Q18 margin outlook21
Aluminum/Alumina: winter suspension - likely lesser for aluminum and attish for alumina24
Copper: soft seasonal pattern26
Paper: continued demand weakness 29
Target price methodologies and risks32
Disclosure Appendix35
20 September 2018
Goldman SachsChina Basic Materials Monitor
Table of Contents
China basic materials – coverage summary
Prices in this report are as of September 19, 2018, unless stated otherwise. “Target” in Exhibits 3, 37, 44, 51, 64 and 71
refers to target prices.
Exhibit 3: China basic materials – coverage summary
Source: Company data, Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.Note: * denotes stock is on our regional Conviction List. Target prices are based on a 12-month timeframe.
20 September 2018
Goldman SachsChina Basic Materials Monitor
Commodity price deck
Exhibit 4: Benchmark commodity price forecasts – global and China
Spot prices updated as of September 14, 2018
Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
20 September 2018
Goldman SachsChina Basic Materials Monitor。