JANUARY 20192019 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: worldbankSome rights reserved.1 2 3 4 22 21 20 19This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusionsexpressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governmentsthey represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors,denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bankconcerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The WorldBank, all of which are specifically reserved.Rights and PermissionsThis work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) http://creativecommons/ licenses/by/3.0/igo. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are free to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt this work,including for commercial purposes, under the following conditions:Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: World Bank. 2019.Global Economic Prospects, January 2019: Darkening Skies. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1343-6. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO.Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This translationwas not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation. The World Bank shall not be liablefor any content or error in this translation .Adaptations—If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This is anadaptation of an original work by The World Bank. Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of the authoror authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank . Third-party content—The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within the work. TheWorld Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual component or part contained in the workwill not infringe on the rights of those third parties. The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you. If youwish to re-use a component of the work, it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and toobtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images.All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW,Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.ISSN: 1014-8906ISBN (paper): 978-1-4648-1343-6ISBN (electronic): 978-1-4648-1386-3DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1343-6Cover design:Bill Pragluski (Critical Stages).The cutoff date for the data used in this report was December 19, 2018. IIISummary of ContentsChapter 1Chapter 2Chapter 3Chapter 4BoxesGlobal Outlook: Darkening Skies......... 1Regional Outlooks... 55Growing in the Shadow: Challenges of Informality.... 127Two Topical Essays197Debt in Low-Income Countries: Evolution, Implications, and Remedies ........ 199Poverty Impact of Food Price Shocks and Policies .... 209Box 1.1e great disination .......... 8Box 1.2Low-income countries: Recent developments and outlook ..... 22Box 1.3Regional perspectives: Recent developments and outlook ...... 26Box 2.1.1 Informality in East Asia and Pacic 63Box 2.2.1 Informality in Europe and Central Asia ....... 75Box 2.3.1 Informality in Latin America and the Caribbean ...... 85Box 2.4.1 Informality in the Middle East and North Africa ...... 95Box 2.5.1 Informality in South Asia. 104Box 2.6.1 Informality in Sub-Saharan Africa113Box 3.1Linkages between formal and informal sectors ........ 132Box 3.2Regional dimensions of informality: An overview ....140Box 3.3Casting a shadow: Productivity in formal and informal rms ......... 146Box 3.4Under the magnifying glass: How do policies affect informality ...... 155。。。。。。