摘要
2015 年，《中国制造 2025》出台，文件指出，制造业是国民经济的主体，
是立国之本、兴国之器、强国之基。供应链管理是制造业发展过程中的重要
内容，牛鞭效应是供应链管理者普遍面临的问题之一。我国已成为制造大国，
但与发达国家相比，我国物流成本明显偏高，供应链管理水平仍然落后，牛
鞭效应普遍存在于各个欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司和企业中，成为制约我国制造业以及其他欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司发
展的重要因素。牛鞭效应是供应链上的一种需求变异放大现象，当信号从供
应链低端传递到高端的时候发生扭曲，使订单波动越来越大。目前针对牛鞭
效应的研究有实验、理论和实证分析，主要集中于其原因和结果的探究，主
要分为三个层次：供应链、欧亿·体育（中国）有限公司、公司。其中公司水平下的牛鞭效应研究从
近几年才开始。造成牛鞭效应的原因主要有需求信号、价格波动、订单批量、
管理者行为和系统因素等。其结果是增加运营成本、造成运营管理效率低下，
影响企业的长远发展。然而，在控制所有因素的理想化环境下，牛鞭效应仍
然不能完全消除。这说明仍有造成牛鞭效应的原因未被发觉。本文从管理者
财务动机出发，结合会计学领域和供应链管理领域的相关研究，在信号不对
称理论和委托代理理论的指导下，研究真实活动盈余管理与牛鞭效应的关系

本文对国内外的研究进行了回顾，通过分析总结了影响牛鞭效应的主要
因素，并在此基础上构建了多元线性回归模型。本文的样本来源于 2007 年至
2015 年的沪深 A 股上市公司，先进行变量计算，然后用多元线性回归分析方
法，实证检验了真实盈余管理与牛鞭效应的关系以及 IT 投资的调节作用。研
究结果表明：（1）销售操控下的真实活动盈余管理对牛鞭效应有正向作用；
（2）生产操控下的真实活动盈余管理对牛鞭效应有正向作用；（3）酌量性费
用操控下的真实活动盈余管理对牛鞭效应有正向作用；（4）IT 投资对销售操
控下的真实活动盈余管理与牛鞭效应的关系有减弱作用；（5）IT 投资对生产、
酌量性费用操控下的真实活动盈余管理与牛鞭效应的关系没有作用；从理论
分析和实证结果来看，上市公司采取上述三种操控手段都能导致牛鞭效应；
上市公司 IT 投资只对销售操控下的真实活动盈余管理与牛鞭效应的相关关
系有减弱作用。通过结果分析，本文针对上市公司提升 IT 投资水平及减弱牛
鞭效应的方法提出了建议

关键词：牛鞭效应；真实活动盈余管理；IT 投资；信号传递哈尔滨工业大学管理学硕士学位论文
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Abstract
In 2015, the “2025 made in China” points out that manufacturing is the main
body of the national economy, the base of building, the tool of developing and
the foundation of powering.Supply chain management is the very important
content in the process of manufacturing industry development; the bullwhip
effect is one of the problem that supply chain managers generally face
with.Although China has become a manufacturing great power, according to the
statistics, Chinese logistics cost is significantly higher than that of developed
countries. Supply chain management level is relatively backward, and the
bullwhip effect generally exists in industries and enterprises , which restricts the
development of the manufacturing and other industries in China. Bullwhip effect
is demand variation amplification phenomenon in the supply chain .When the
signal transmits from supply chain low-end to high-end, the demand information
is distorted, and causing amplified orders fluctuation. The current study of the
bullwhip effect experiment includes theory and empirical analysis, mainly
focused on exploring the reasons and results of bullwhip effect. Researches
mainly focus in three levels: the supply chain, the industry and the company. The
bullwhip effect under the company level research began in recent years. The
main reasons are demand signal, price fluctuations, order batch, managers’
behavior and system factors, etc. The result is to increase operating costs,
inefficient operation management and affect the enterprise long-term
development. However, while all factors of idealized enviornment are under
control, the bullwhip effect cannot be completely eliminated. From managers’
financial motivation, based on the principal-agent theory and signal asymmetry
theory, this article brings in real activities earnings management and investigates
its impact on the bullwhip effect.
Based on the review of related literature at home and abroad, using
Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2015 as samples,
this study empirically investigates the relationship between real activities
earnings management and the bullwhip effect and the moderating effect of the IT
investments. The results show: (1) Real activities earnings management under
the sales manipulation has positive effect on the bullwhip effect; (2) Real
activities earnings management under the production manipulation has positive
effect on the bullwhip effect; (3) Real activities earnings management under the哈尔滨工业大学管理学硕士学位论文
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expenditure manipulation has positive effect on the bullwhip effect; (4) IT
investments weaken the relationship between real earnings management under
sales manipulation and bullwhip effect. (5) IT investments have no effect on the
relationship between earnings management under production, expenditure
manipulation and bullwhip effect. Finally, by analyzing the results, this study
proposes suggestions to enhance the level of IT investment and weaken bullwhip
effect of listed companies.
Keywords: bullwhip effect，real activities earnings management，IT investment，
signal transmission哈尔滨工业大学管理学硕士学位论文
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目 录
摘要.....I
ABSTRACT .......II
第 1 章 绪 论 .... 1
1.1 研究背景与问题提出 ...... 1
1.2 国内外研究现状及分析 .. 3
1.2.1 牛鞭效应产生的原因及后果的研究3
1.2.2 真实活动盈余管理方式及其后果的研究 ..... 7
1.2.3 IIT 投资绩效研究 .... 10
1.2.4 研究述评 .....11
1.3 研究目的与意义13
1.3.1 研究目的 .... 13
1.3.2 研究意义 .... 13
1.4 研究内容和研究方法 .... 14
1.4.1 研究内容 .... 14
1.4.2 研究方法 .... 16
1.5 创新点 ... 16
第 2 章 假设发展与模型构建 . 17
2.1 理论基础 ........... 17
2.1.1 委托代理理论 ......... 17
2.1.2 信息不对称理论 ..... 18
2.2 假设发展 ........... 19
2.2.1 真实活动盈余管理与牛鞭效应的关系 ...... 19
2.2.2 IIT 投资的调节作用22
2.3 研究设计 ........... 24
2.3.1 变量的衡量 .. 24
2.3.2 模型的构建 .. 27
2.4 本章小结30
第 3 章 实证研究 ........ 31
3.1 样本选取与数据来源 ....
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