摘 要
药物研发的过程充满了不可逆性、不确定性和灵活性。因此，新药项
目本身具有潜在的期权属性。传统的投资决策方法,例如折现现金流法，比
较法等因为没有充分考虑到项目的灵活性价值，往往导致项目价值低估，
从而误使企业失去一些有价值的投资机会。本文详细介绍了新药研发的具
体过程，分析了 R&D 项目风险的来源，并比较了传统投资决策方法和实物
期权方法的优缺点。针对 R&D 项目的风险特征，本文引入了复合实物期权
的评估方法，并通过案例分析解释了实物期权模型的具体运用方法。

复合期权定价的模型有很多种，针对药物研发的具体特征，本文采用
二叉树复合实物期权模型评估案例项目的价值，因为二叉树模型直观、易
理解，不需要复杂的数学计算，能同时兼顾项目中的技术风险和市场风险
比较真实地模拟了决策者决策的过程。通过计算得到的项目期权价值，即
灵活性价值，直接导致项目价值的增值，灵活性越高，增值越大。实物期
权思想可以帮助管理者看到投资所带来的成长机会，引导决策者制定更为
科学的战略决策。

关键词 药物研发，实物期权，复合期权，二叉树模型

APPLICATION OF REAL OPTIONS VALUATION TO DURG
R&D INVESTMENTS
ABSTRACT
The drug development process is full of irreversibility, uncertainty and flexibility which
implies the potential option value in drug valuation. However，the traditional investment
evaluation methods, like NPV and Comparables, can underestimate the project value by
overlooking some uncertainties and flexibility, thus leading to high-risk and high-pay off
projects that are rejected. This paper details the process of new drug research and
development, and studies characteristics of R&D. Meanwhile, the pros and cons of traditional
investment decision-making methods versus real option methods are studied. Given the high
risks and uncertainties in drug R&D projects, this paper introduces a compound real option
valuation model. The paper describes and illustrates this new approach with an application to
a R&D project of a pharmaceutical company. The key factors in the valuation are spotted and
introduced.
Several option pricing methods can be used for a real options valuation, but binomial
trees valuation method best fits the purpose as it is both intuitive and easy to understand. It
best fits the valuation of investment with high technological and economic uncertainties, like
pharmaceutical R&D investment. Through the recognition of intrinsic and built-in flexibility
value, this approach leads apparent value increment. The more flexible the project is, the
greater the value increment is. Considering the value of real options embedded in R&D
projects will help managers make more informed financing decisions.
Keywords New drug R&D, Real Options, Compound Options, Binomial Tree Option
Pricing Model