摘要
随着外包的普遍化和采购的全球化，供应链系统结构越来越复杂，越来越多的供
应商参与其中，使得供应链系统更加脆弱，从而突发事件的发生对于供应链系统时常
产生重大危害，导致供应商不能及时提供订单。因此，生产商需要选择有效的采购策
略及后备契约来应对突发事件导致的原材料与零部件的供应中断，所以本文对于生产
商与供应商在面对中断风险时应如何应对，进行了探索和研究。

本文以不同风险下的供应链系统为研究对象。首先研究了生产商在面对供应中断
风险时其库存及生产变化规律，分析了供应风险对其影响的时间及程度，在此基础上，
比较和分析了采用和不采用双源采购策略时生产商的期望利润函数，并对比较结果中
的决策变量进行了分析，以此来帮助生产商决定是否采用双源采购策略。然后在以上
研究基础上，本文进一步考虑了信息共享对于基于中断风险的供应链系统的影响，因
为中断风险的不同存在形式，本文将供应链系统面临的风险环境概括为三种，并针对
每种环境下生产商与主供应商、生产商与后备供应商的利润函数及主供应商与后备供
应商之间的信息共享及合作分别进行了更深层次的研究。最后，本文通过数值分析对
于所建模型、所得结论的准确性及其实际意义进行了验证。

通过研究中断风险下生产商的双源采购策略的启用问题，及供应信息和成本信息
的共享对生产商和供应商应对风险的决策的影响，本文主要得出以下结论：对于生产
商是否采用双源采购策略不仅取决于供应风险的持续时间及程度，也由生产商的加速
成本、订单量以及后备供应商的批发价格、产品质量、库存成本等因素影响，生产商
需要综合考虑所有因素来决定是否采用双源采购策略；对于考虑信息共享的中断风险
系统，供应商有多种应对措施，需合理选择，而生产商可以通过提高供应商相应成本，
来促使其在面对风险时选择更有利于自己的应对措施；同时生产商在面对供应商之间
可能信息共享并合作的情形时，需要制定相应的契约条件来避免这种情况的发生，而
且主供应商在选择与后备供应商是否合作时，也应考虑后备供应商生产不同成本类型
产品时是否能够为两者带来更大的利润。

关键词：中断风险；双源采购策略；信息共享；供货决策；合作北京理工大学硕士学位论文

Abstract
Nowadays, with the generalization of outsourcing and the globalization of procurement,
the supply chain system’s structure is becoming more and more complex. More and more
suppliers join in the system, which make the system become more fragile. Thereby
disruption risk caused by emergency leading to the great harm for the supply chain system
is more easily than before, such as suppliers cannot offer the order in time. Therefore,
manufacturers should choose the effective purchasing strategy and make reasonably backup
contract to solve the disruption risk of raw materials and components caused by emergency.
So this paper explores and investigates the best way that manufacturers and suppliers are
how to deal with the disruption risk.
Supply chain systems under different risks are our research object in this paper. Firstly,
we study the change law of manufacturers’ inventory and production when they face with
the disruption risk, and still analyze the influence’s time and degree for manufacturers
caused by the disruption risk. Based on this, we compare and analyze the expected profit
functions of the manufacturer when it uses or not uses dual-source procurement strategy,
and then analyze the decision variables after compare to help manufacturers make decision
whether using the dual-source procurement strategy or not. Then the paper further consider
the effect of the supply chain system based on the disruption risk, which caused by
information sharing contract. Due to the disruption risks are different, this paper concludes
the risk environment into three parts. And then research further on information share and
cooperation between the manufacturer and the main supplier, the manufacturer and the
backup supplier, and the main supplier and the backup supplier under each environment. In
the end, Numerical examples are presented and some computational results are reported,
which verify the accuracy of our models and conclusions.
According to research the problems about whether using the dual-source procurement
strategy or not for the manufacturer who are in the disruption risk, and how the information
sharing contract to influence the optimal decision making by manufacturer and the supplier,
we can attain the following mainly conclusions: For the manufacturer, whether he/she usin