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摘 要
随着人口急剧增长，资源愈发匮乏、生态环境不断恶化，全球自然灾害发生频率逐
渐升高，区域灾害问题日益突出。建立和完善灾害恢复力评估方法是开展灾后恢复和重
建工作的基础，对科学制定重大自然灾害灾后恢复与重建战略、采取有效措施开展防灾
减灾，具有十分重要的指导意义。

本文以区域农业水灾恢复力为研究对象，将区域农业抵抗重大水灾的能力（抵抗力）
与区域农业从重大水灾中恢复或适应水灾的能力等两个概念内涵相结合，定义区域农业
水灾恢复力为区域农业在水灾后的生存能力，运用区域农业环境条件指数与区域农业系
统防御度两个指标进行定量刻画，构建了区域农业水灾恢复力研究的概念基础。在概念
基础上，通过分析区域农业水灾恢复主体关系与恢复力利益主体关系，研究了区域农业
水灾恢复过程，揭示了区域农业水灾恢复力形成机理及其区域的差异性、静态性和动态
性、变化的非线性性、随机性等特征。然后，根据恢复力概念内涵，结合区域农业系统
的特征，运用层次分析方法，建构了一个多层次多目标的恢复力评估指标体系和恢复力
评估模型，建立了一个比较实用的恢复力评估方法。

本文并以湖南省 14 个地州市作为实证研究对象，通过专家问卷调查方法确定各级
指标权重，根据相关统计数据对所建立的恢复力评估方法进行实证研究。研究发现该评
估方法基本上能比较准确地反映湖南 14 个地州市农业水灾灾后恢复的能力。由此，发
现了制约湖南各地州市农业水灾恢复力的主要因素，并从加强生态环境保护、完善农业
生产系统、建立完善的预警系统和应急通报系统等诸多方面给出了相应的对策和建议。

显然，本文的研究不仅具有重大的理论意义而且具有十分重大的现实意义。

关键词：区域农业；水灾；恢复力；层次分析；评估ABSTRACT
With the rapid growth of the world population, and increasingly scarce resources,
deteriorating ecological environment, global frequency of natural disasters is gradually
increasing and regional disaster is becoming increasingly prominent. Establishment and
improvement of the disaster resilience assessment method is the basis of carrying out
post-disaster restoration and reconstruction work, and it plays an important role in the
scientific designing of recovery and reconstruction strategy and taking effective measures.
This thesis takes the regional agricultural flood resilience as the research object, and
through the quantitative characterization of both the regional agricultural environmental
conditions index and the regional agricultural system defense degree, the author has
constructed the conceptual basis of the research on flood resilience of regional agriculture.
This thesis combines the two concepts of the regional agriculture’s ability to resist severe
floods (resistance) and regional agricultural recover from a heavy flood or the ability to adapt
to floods, and defines the regional agricultural flood resilience as the regional agriculture’s
ability to survive after flood. Based on the concept, this thesis studies the regional agricultural
flood recovery process, and reveals the regional agricultural flood resilience formation
mechanism and its regional differences, static and dynamic, changing nonlinearity,
randomness and other features by analyzing the relationship between the main regional
agricultural flood recovery and resilience stakeholder relations. Then, based on the concept of
resilience and the characteristics of regional agricultural systems, this thesis construct a
multi-level and multi-objective evaluation system resilience and resilience evaluation model,
and also a more practical resilience assessment by using AHP.
What’s more, this thesis selects 14 prefectures in Hunan Province to do and empirical
analysis. And through the expert survey method to determine the index weight levels, this
thesis gives an empirical research based on the relevant statistical data on the established
resilience assessment methods. We can see from the research that the evaluation method can
basically more accurately reflect the 14 prefectures in Hunan agricultural flood disaster
recovery capabilities. Therefore, this thesis has found the major factors of restricting the flood
resilience of Hunan agriculture, and gives the corresponding countermeasures and
suggestions for strengthening ecological protection, improving the agricultural production
system, establishing and improving the early warning system and emergency notification
systems. Obviously, this thesis is not only of great theoretical significance and of great
practical significance.
Key words: regional agriculture; flood; resilience; AHP; assessment