文本描述
摘 要
本文从备受世人关注的欧洲主权债务危机出发,在铺垫和梳理国际货币体
系、欧洲一体化、欧元等相关背景与知识的基础上,探究了欧洲主权债务危机产
生的原因与影响,指出欧洲主权债务危机的爆发和蔓延既有金融危机后续深化影
响、“美国阴谋论”等外在原因,也有政府失信与失职、一体化货币政策与分散
化财政政策相互错配、产业结构失衡、经济缺乏内生性和稳态性等内在原因,并
就此明确欧洲主权债务危机会对国际政治经济局势增添不确定因素,但就欧盟及
欧元区而言,其未来发展之路的主基调是“合”而不是“分”,此外,本文还从
现有应对之举和未来可选之策等两方面阐述了危机化解之道,并延伸性地将我国
外汇储备与未来可能出现的“欧元债券”相关联,对二者供需交叉点进行前瞻性
探讨,并由此认为我国未来持有一定数量的“欧元债券”符合经济利益和政治利
益的双重要求,以期从一个侧面引入中国式的思考与研判,抛砖引玉,为化解危
机贡献积极力量
关键词:欧洲主权债务危机;原因;影响;外汇储备
II
Abstract
This paper begins from the European sovereign debt crisis. On the basis of
combing the background and knowledge of the international monetary system,
European integration and the euro, explores the causes and impact of the European
sovereign debt crisis. There are both extrinsic and intrinsic factors lead to European
sovereign debt crisis. External causes are the follow-up impact of the financial crisis,
the “America conspiracy theory and so on. The intrinsic causes are government
dishonesty and dereliction of duty, the integration of monetary policy and
decentralized fiscal policy mismatch with each other, the imbalance of the industrial
structure, the economy lacks endogenous and steady-state and so on. And then point
out a problem: the European sovereign debt crisis will add international political and
economic situation in the uncertainties. However, the main tone of the future
development about the European Union and the euro zone is merge instead of
separation. In addition, the paper proposes both existing coping methods and
optional methods to defuse the crisis, Extend to the association about Chinese foreign
exchange reserves and euro bonds, and then explore both the intersection of supply
and demand. It is believed that to hold a certain number of euro bonds could meet
both the requirements economic and political interests. The paper introduces the
thought and research from a Chinese perspective, in order to contribute a positive
force to defuse the crisis.
Key words:European sovereign debt crisis; reason; influence; Foreign exchange
reserves