摘 要
中国对外贸易与城乡收入差距
随着我国改革开放的深入顺利进行，我国外向型经济的不断发展，对外贸
易如火如荼地开展起来，我国已经连续多年成为世界上最大的商品出口国。对
外贸易对中国经济的发展起到至关重要的作用，是中国经济增长的引擎。三十
多年来，中国经济取得了辉煌的成绩，现在，我国的国内生产总值已经超越日
本，成为世界第二大经济体。人们的物质生活得到了极大的丰富，生活水平得
到了前所未有的提高。

但是伴随着经济的总体增长，一些问题也暴露出来。现阶段比较突出的就
是收入分配差距问题。2012 年，我国国家统计局首次公布了基尼系数，我国现
阶段基尼系数居高不下，根据统计局发布的数据显示，我国基尼系数已经超过
0.4 的警戒线，2012 年的最新数据已经达到了 0.474。尤其值得我们特别关注的
是城乡收入差距，它是反映收入分配差距的重要指标。改革开放三十余年，我
国的城乡收入差距正呈现扩大趋势。1978 年，我国城乡收入比仅为 2.5 比 1，
但是截止到 2011 年已经达到 3.2 比 1。城乡收入比的增大警示人们城乡收入差
距问题不容忽视，因为它关系到一个国家的经济安全、社会稳定和人民安居乐
业，如果不能很好地解决收入分配，特别是城乡收入差距的问题，将影响我国
经济的长期健康发展。

本文首先通过列举一系列数据和图表，发现我国对外开放拉动经济增长的
同时，城乡收入差距也随之一起变动，呈现比较明显的共同趋势。进而，本文
通过利用相关的国际经济学原理，并学习借鉴学术界长期以来的研究成果，对
我国对外贸易与城乡收入差距的问题进行了综合分析，并通过计量模型的实证
检验，证实了对外贸易与城乡收入差距的稳定相关性。之后，本文还进行了对
外贸易分解分析，将进口贸易、出口贸易分开，来考量其各自对于城乡收入差
距的作用。并且本文还有针对性地进行了时间段分析，由于我国在 1994 年汇率
制度改革，又在 2001 年加入世界贸易组织，对外贸易发展的明显时间节点特征，
不同的时间节点对于分析对外贸易与城乡收入差距必定具有显著意义，所得到
的结果也与预期的一致，城乡收入差距也受到了对外贸易阶段性发展的作用。

从分析计量结果的过程中得到了一些关于优化对外贸易结构、缩小城乡收入差
距的思路，以期为今后的理论研究以及政策分析提供一定的依据。

通过计量分析，我国对外贸易与城乡收入差距呈现明显的正相关性。为了
能够合理解决这一问题，需要针对对外贸易结构进行改革、调整，优化进出口
结构，提高战略性新兴产业的出口比重，并调整城乡收入分配结构，优化个人
所得税申报、征收制度，加大对农村地区的政策扶持力度，为更好地让对外贸
易服务于农村地区制定更多更有效的政策措施。

关键词：
对外贸易，城乡收入差距，平稳性检验
Abstract
China’s Foreign Trade and Urban-rural Income Gap
As the reform and opening policy’s deeply and smoothly processing and
China’s export-oriented economy continuously developing, foreign trade is booming.
China has become the biggest exporting country in the world for many years.
Foreign trade plays a crucial role in China’s economy development. It is the engine
of China’s economy growth. In the recent thirty years, China has got great success in
developing its economy and surpassed Japan in GDP to become the second largest
economy in the world. People’s material life has changed significantly, and living
standard has improved unprecedented.
However, with the rapid development of gross economy, some problems
exposed at the same time. At the present stage, the gap of income distribution is a
main issue. In 2012, National Bureau of Statistics published the Gini coefficient of
China for the first time. China’s Gini coefficient is on a high level and overpasses the
warning line of 0.4. For the latest data, namely in 2012, this number is 0.474. It is
particularly the gap between urban and rural areas that needs us to pay more
attention to, since it is an important index reflecting the general status of gap of
income distribution. In recent thirty years, China’s urban and rural income
distribution gap is widening. In 1978, the ratio of urban-rural income was only 2.5,
while by the end of the year 2011, this ratio has reached 3.2. The widening gap
between urban and rural is an issue that cannot be ignored. It is vital for a country’s
economy security, society stability and people’s peaceful life and work. If this
income distribution issue, especially the urban-rural income distribution issue, is not
well solved, it will affect the long-term development of China’s economy.
By listing the data and charts, we can find out that the opening policy does
stimulate the economic growth, but meanwhile, the gap between urban and rural
income distribution is widening. Therefore, by using related international economics
theories coupled with academic research findings, we analyzed the relationship
between China’s foreign trade development and gap between urban and rural income
distribution generally. We find stable correlation between these two economy
variables through empirical tests. After that, through foreign trade decomposition,
we use export trade and import trade data to see each variable’s effect on the gap. In
this paper, we have targeted analyses towards time periods. As China had a foreign
exchange system reform in 1994, and in 2001, China finally became a member of
WTO, the development of foreign trade apparently has its period feature. Therefore,
we prove that this feature has affected the urban-rural income gap as well. By
researching into the relationship, some new inspirations on optimizing foreign trade
structure and narrowing the gap between urban and rural areas are obtained. These
can provide a basis for future theoretical research and policy analysis.
From the outcome of econometrics analysis, we discovered a significant
positive relationship between foreign trade and the gap between urban and rural
areas. In order to get a reasonable solution, China has to reform the structure of
foreign trade and improve the proportion of strategic emerging industries, and adjust
the structure of income distribution between urban and rural, and the individual
income tax has to be optimized as well. Government should give more support to
rural areas and make more effective measures on foreign trade to serve the rural
areas’ development.
Key words:
foreign trade, urban-rural income gap, stability test
第 1 章 绪论
1.1 研究背景、目的与意义
2012 年，中国经济又走过了辉煌的一年，正在逐步走出经济危机的阴霾，
朝着一个新的方向前行。虽然世界经济仍然还在低迷中徘徊，联合国也将世界
经济增长预期调低至 2.6%，但是在过去的一年里，中国仍然努力前行，政府采
取多种措施，保障国内经济稳定发展。根据统计局公布的数据，我国 2012 年的
国内生产总值（GDP）为 519322 亿元，较上年增长 7.8%
[1]
。虽然“7.8”是 1999
年以来的最低值，但是也实现了经济增长 7.5%的总体目标，说明尽管面临着国
外经济形势不景气的大背景，我国经济依旧实现了平稳发展，没有出现大起大
落。我国现在需要的是改革内部经济结构，基于中长期的规划，进行战略性调
整，转变经济增长方式，不再单纯以 GDP 增速衡量经济发展，而是要综合各方
面因素，实现经济的可持续发展。

改革开放三十余年，中国经济已经起飞，人们的生活水平得到不断提高，
物质文明得到极大丰富，中国经济的高速发展，已经成为一种现象，让世界更
加重视中国的发展。中国经济的腾飞不得不归功于对外贸易的迅猛发展。自从
1978 年改革开放以来，经历了 1994 年的外汇改革，再到 2001 年加入世界贸易
组织，中国对外贸易可谓跨越三大台阶，引领着中国经济的跳跃。特别是近十
年，我国经济发展越发与世界紧密联系的同时，中国经济对世界经济的影响力
越发提高，在更大范围、更高层次、更广领域提高了我国开放型经济发展水平。

国际经济舞台风云变幻，中国经济也经受住了考验，并同时对稳定世界经济作
出了许多贡献。

改革开放以来的中国对外贸易发展十分迅速，1978 年，我国对外贸易总额
仅为 206 亿美元，在世界排名 32 位，占比不足 1%
[2]
；到入世前夕，已达到 4743
亿美元；而加入世界贸易组织之后，我国对外贸易进一步加快发展步伐，到 2011
年，我国进出口总额已达到 36419 亿美元，连续三年出口总额位列世界第一，