摘 要
本文分析了北京现代在广东省的经销商在 2012 年 3 至 5 月间推行的油价补贴销售策略。分
别从营销、运营、金融的方面进行了分析与计算。通过分析得出了如果可以合理控制由于油价
不确定性给经销商带来的风险,油价补贴策略可以为经销商带来更高的净现值。同时本策略中
包含的营销、运营、金融手段可以运用于其他产品和服务的销售。

本文针对北京现代经销商在 3 月至 5 月之间的现代瑞纳车型的油价补贴开始,由销量本身
以及在营销过程中所获得的“净收入”着手,分析了在油价补贴的销售策略中,营销、运营和
金融的方面可以完善以及借鉴的地方。从营销的角度而言,分析的方向主要有:历史销量情
况、在油费补贴的营销区间内的销量变化、同品牌的车型的比较、不同品牌的同级车的营销比
较、广告的投放。从运营的角度而言,分析的方向主要有:控制里程数的检验方法、管控员工
不提取多余的里程“油费补贴”、利用油费补贴的来店机会提供服务。从金融的角度而言,分
析的方向主要有:对于风险的避规方式、金融衍生品的选取、通过 VAR 的方式来分析风险收
益。

尤其在金融分析模型方面,本文分别引用了 NPV 和 VAR 的方式来分析由于此营销策略所得
到的额外收入与利润,以及由此带来的风险。对于风险避规的方式,本文提出了通过购买金融
衍生品的方式来减少风险。

关键词:油价补贴,VAR,净现值增加
ABSTRACT
This thesis analyzed the petrol-fee-allowance sales strategy making by the
dealers of Beijing Hyundai in Guangdong province from March to May 2012.
The analysis goes from sales and marketing, operation, and finance with
calculations. As a result of this thesis, if dealer can control the risks for the
fluctuation of the petrol price, the petrol-fee-allowance sales strategy could
generate higher net present value for dealers. The method in this thesis can be
used in other products and service sales entities.
This thesis analyzes from ‘Net Income’ for Ruina from March to May and
goes through the sales, operation, and finance. The sales analysis includes
the historical data, the delta change in the petrol-fee-allowance period, the
comparison between models, the comparison between vehicle segmentation,
and advertisements. The operation analysis includes mileage checking
method, internal governance, more sales opportunity. The finance analysis
includes risk mitigation methods, derivable choices, VAR analysis.
Especially in finance analysis, this thesis use NPV and VAR to analysis
the gains and risks. To mitigate the risks, buying derivable is proposed.
KEY WORDS: petrol-fee-allowance, VAR, increase in NPV