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2010年野村证券盛大深度研究报告全套(2118页).rar

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《2010年野村证券盛大深度研究报告全套》(2118页).rar Capital appreciation We expect residential property prices in Taipei city to be firm, given difficulty in land procurement and a relatively low-cost borrowing environment. We also see escalating demand for commercial properties from Chinese investment spurred by improving political relations with China and closer integration with China's economy through the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement. With the overhang of mayoral elections to be lifted after November, we think the market is becoming desensitised to recent tightening measures, and we look for gradual recovery in the Taipei property market through 2011F. This should have a ripple effect on surrounding Taipei county, especially given the government's focus on urban development and improving public transportation. We initiate on Farglory and Huaku with BUYs. Both have balanced exposure between residential and commercial properties, and we project an earnings upcycle in FY11F-12F, backed by project launches in FY10-12F. We look for an FY10- 12F earnings CAGR of 21% and FY11F ROE of 23% for Farglory, and a CAGR of 15% and ROE of 30% for Huaku. These are set against historically deep discounts to NAV: 33% for Farglory, 26% for Huaku. We initiate on Hung Poo at NEUTRAL, since we do not expect strong revenue growth un

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