文本描述
《2010年10月美林中国清洁能源专题研究报告(全英文)》(29页).rar
Findings from BofAML China Clean Energy Conference
BofA Merrill Lynch hosted a China Clean Energy conference in Hong Kong on Oct
12-13. We summarize in this report the comments made by PRC Ministry of
Environmental Protection think tank adviser, the wind power, nuclear and solar
companies and renewable energy consultants who attended this conference.
4Q09, early 2010 solar outlook positive
Commentary from solar companies confirms that 4Q09 is tracking better than
expected with minimal seasonality impact in 4Q, consistent with our observation
from the Hamburg solar industry conference we recently attended.
PRC solar feed in tariff (FiT) rollout timing
Most corporates and industry consultants believe the Chinese government is
serious about a FiT of solar and it could be announced as soon as before the
Copenhagen conference or the National People's Congress meeting in March '10.
The rollout of the key FiT could be delayed by issues that need to be resolved: (1)
optimal reference rate for FiT that will promote sustained profitability, (2) larger
sample size of generation data from different region/sunlight resources, (3)
technical bottlenecks such as grid connectivity and net-metering mechanism.
Our most and least favored PRC solar stocks
Our favored solar names are Trina Solar (TSL, US$35.2, C-1-9, PO: US$40.00)
and Suntech Power (STP, US$15.81, C-1-9, PO: US$22.00 and least favored are
JA Solar (JASO, US$4.18, C-3-9, PO: US$3.50) and LDK Solar (LDK, US$8.44,
C-3-9, PO: US$7.60).
Beneficiaries of China's 10 fold nuclear capacity expansion
China's nuclear capacity rapid growth towards 100GW by 2020 will likely drive up
demand for uranium starting 2011 and uranium price as a result. China will
require 18,000 tons of uranium by 2020 and 16,000 tons will be satisfied by
imports with CNNC International as a key vehicle just beginning to look at imports.
We believe Areva, Cameco, Paladin, BHP and Rio Tinto are likely to benefit.
Equipment value chain is capable of supporting